Should You Buy Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
44.910
1 Day change
1.79%
52 Week Range
52.080
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/29
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. The stock is sitting near support and looks short-term oversold, but momentum is still bearish (MACD worsening), near-term probability skews negative (week/month), and the latest quarter showed weakening profitability (sharp gross margin decline). I would hold off on buying until price action stabilizes and the down-momentum clearly fades.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: HGV closed at 43.46, below the pivot (46.03) and just above S2 support (43.17) with S1 at 44.26. This is a weak technical position (below pivot) but very close to a key support zone.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.459) and expanding downward, signaling bearish momentum is still strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) ~30.29, near oversold territory (supports the idea of a potential bounce), but RSI alone is not enough to call a trend reversal.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest compression/indecision; combined with negative MACD, the bias remains bearish until the stock reclaims levels above ~46.
Pattern-based outlook provided: Similar-pattern stats imply ~-1.44% next week and ~-4.74% next month (near-term drift lower).
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Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/Call ratios at 0.4 (open interest and volume) lean bullish (more call interest than puts), suggesting traders are positioned for upside or protection demand is relatively low.
Liquidity/strength of signal: Absolute volume is tiny (total volume 7 contracts), so sentiment from daily flow is not very reliable.
Volatility: 30D IV ~45.35 vs historical vol ~39.77; IV percentile ~60 indicates options are moderately expensive versus recent history, consistent with uncertainty but not extreme fear.
Takeaway: Options positioning is mildly bullish, but low volume makes it a secondary signal; it does not override the bearish price momentum.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
with RSI near oversold, which can attract dip-buying if the broader tape improves.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Trend/momentum: MACD is negative and worsening; the stock is below its pivot level (46.03), keeping the technical bias bearish.
Near-term drift: Provided pattern probabilities skew negative over 1-week and 1-month horizons.
Fundamentals pressure: Latest quarter showed declining revenue and net income, with a very large gross margin drop—profitability deterioration can keep a lid on the multiple.
Analyst tone cooling: Recent downgrade (Morgan Stanley) and an Equal Weight initiation (Wells Fargo) suggest Wall Street is less enthusiastic after the run-up.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.168B, down ~0.68% YoY (slight contraction).
Net income: $25M, down ~13.79% YoY (profit decline).
EPS: $0.28, ~flat YoY.
Gross margin: 6.16%, down ~36.43% YoY (notable profitability compression).
Bottom line: Top-line is slightly down, but the bigger issue is margin/profitability weakening—this is not the kind of growth profile that typically supports an aggressive long-term entry without clear signs of improvement.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings/targets have shifted more cautious into early 2026.
- 2026-01-16 Morgan Stanley: Downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight; PT $49 unchanged (more balanced stance after rally).
- 2025-11-17 Wells Fargo: Initiated Equal Weight; PT $42 (views shares as fully valued with growth concerns).
- 2025-11-14 Truist: Kept Buy but cut PT to $59 from $62 (still constructive but trimming expectations).
Wall Street pros: Some see upside (Truist Buy, higher PT) if execution improves.
Wall Street cons: Multiple firms lean neutral and cite valuation/growth concerns; the most recent change was a downgrade, which is a near-term headwind.
Wall Street analysts forecast HGV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HGV is 48.16 USD with a low forecast of 42 USD and a high forecast of 59 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HGV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HGV is 48.16 USD with a low forecast of 42 USD and a high forecast of 59 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 44.120
Low
42
Averages
48.16
High
59
Current: 44.120
Low
42
Averages
48.16
High
59
Morgan Stanley
Stephen Grambling
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$49
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Stephen Grambling
Price Target
$49
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Grambling downgraded Hilton Grand Vacations to Equal Weight from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $49. After the recent rally, the firm downgraded several stocks and takes a more balanced view of the gaming, lodging and leisure space heading into 2026. While consumers should benefit from stimulus and businesses appear poised to increase travel, goods are getting renewed interest in a falling rate environment and the cycle is later for services, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley is trimming its expose to the group.
Wells Fargo
Equal Weight
initiated
$42
2025-11-17
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$42
2025-11-17
initiated
Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo initiated coverage of Hilton Grand Vacations with an Equal Weight rating and $42 price target. The firm finds the shares fully valued given its growth concerns for the Industry.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for HGV
