HCC Valuation

Warrior Met Coal Inc

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61.140

+2.29(3.891%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

HCC Relative Valuation

HCC's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, HCC is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) is now in the Overvalued zone, suggesting that its current forward PE ratio of 20.42 is considered Overvalued compared with the five-year average of 8.47. The fair price of Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) is between 21.18 to 47.09 according to relative valuation methord. Compared to the current price of 58.85 USD , Warrior Met Coal Inc is Overvalued By 24.96%.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

21.18-47.09

Current Price：58.85

24.96%

Overvalued

21.22

Trailing

Forward

9.24

EV/EBITDA

Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) has a current EV/EBITDA of 9.24. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 4.18. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.10, Undervalued between 0.10 and 2.14, Fairly Valued between 6.22 and 2.14, Overvalued between 6.22 and 8.26, and Strongly Overvalued above 8.26. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 9.24 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

27.47

EV/EBIT

Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) has a current EV/EBIT of 27.47. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 9.45. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -7.45, Undervalued between -7.45 and 1.00, Fairly Valued between 17.89 and 1.00, Overvalued between 17.89 and 26.34, and Strongly Overvalued above 26.34. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 27.47 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

2.07

Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) has a current PS of 2.07. The 5-year average PS is 1.45. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.46, Undervalued between 0.46 and 0.96, Fairly Valued between 1.95 and 0.96, Overvalued between 1.95 and 2.44, and Strongly Overvalued above 2.44. The current Forward PS of 2.07 falls within the Overvalued range.

9.64

P/OCF

Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) has a current P/OCF of 9.64. The 5-year average P/OCF is 4.77. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.92, Undervalued between 0.92 and 2.84, Fairly Valued between 6.70 and 2.84, Overvalued between 6.70 and 8.63, and Strongly Overvalued above 8.63. The current Forward P/OCF of 9.64 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

1098.34

P/FCF

Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) has a current P/FCF of 1098.34. The 5-year average P/FCF is 45.97. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -305.72, Undervalued between -305.72 and -129.88, Fairly Valued between 221.82 and -129.88, Overvalued between 221.82 and 397.67, and Strongly Overvalued above 397.67. The current Forward P/FCF of 1098.34 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.49. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 1.43 , the current P/B ratio is approximately 4.03% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 1.46, the current P/B ratio is about 2.14% higher. Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately -7.26%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 12.94%, the current FCF yield is approximately -156.12% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 12.58% , the current FCF yield is about -157.76% lower.

1.55

P/B

Median3y

1.43

Median5y

1.46

-7.28

FCF Yield

Median3y

12.94

Median5y

12.58

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for HCC's competitors is 1.31, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Warrior Met Coal Inc Corp (HCC) exhibits a P/S ratio of 2.07, which is 57.59% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of -24.97%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

Alliance Resource Partners LP

Core Natural Resources Inc

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of HCC decreased by 0.16% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in P/E Change from 37.08 to 79.46.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed -24.97%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of HCC in the past 1 year is driven by P/E Change. Which is more unsustainable.

-24.97%

396.52M → 297.52M

Revenue Growth

-89.46%

17.83 → 1.88

Margin Expansion

114.27%

37.08 → 79.46

P/E Change

-0.16%