HCC Should I Buy
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Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner, long-term investor. Despite positive catalysts such as strong analyst upgrades and favorable coal market conditions, the recent insider selling, negative technical indicators, and lack of proprietary trading signals suggest waiting for a better entry point.
The MACD histogram is negative and expanding (-0.789), indicating bearish momentum. RSI is neutral at 34.976, and moving averages are converging, showing no clear trend. The stock is trading below its pivot level (89.278), with support at 85.416 and 83.03, and resistance at 93.14 and 95.526. Overall, the technical indicators suggest a bearish trend.
UBS and Jefferies upgraded the stock with price targets of $108 and $120, respectively, citing strong coal market conditions and operational performance.
Record Q4 earnings with a 25.61% YoY revenue increase and plans for shareholder returns.
Government support for coal through executive orders and funding for coal plant upgrades.
Insiders are selling heavily, with a 592.61% increase in selling activity over the last month.
Net income dropped to $0 in Q4 2025, down 100% YoY, despite revenue growth.
The stock declined 5.02% in the regular market and 1.61% in post-market trading, reflecting weak short-term sentiment.
In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 25.61% YoY to $373.63 million, and EPS surged by 5300% YoY to 1.08. However, net income dropped to $0, and gross margin improved to 11.35%, up 149.45% YoY. The financials show mixed performance with strong revenue and EPS growth but concerning profitability metrics.
Analysts are bullish, with UBS upgrading the stock to Buy and raising the price target to $108, citing compelling returns and margins. Jefferies also raised the price target to $120, reflecting confidence in operational performance and coal market dynamics.
