Should You Buy Fastenal Co (FAST) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BUY (starter position for long-term). Fastenal is trading around $43.39, essentially at the key pivot/support area (~$43.29) with neutral momentum and bullish options positioning (puts notably light vs calls). Fundamentals from 2025/Q4 show solid double-digit revenue/earnings growth, and hedge fund buying has surged last quarter. While several Wall Street firms flag valuation/margin risk and price targets cluster near the current price in the low-$40s, the combination of support-level pricing, positive (but moderating) trend signals, and constructive derivatives sentiment makes it a reasonable long-term entry right now for a beginner investor who doesn’t want to wait for a “perfect” dip.
Technical Analysis
Price/Trend: FAST closed at $43.395 (-0.75%), sitting right on the Pivot support level at 43.286. This is a technically important “decision” zone: holding above it favors stabilization/bounce; losing it increases odds of a move toward S1 ~41.861.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.123) but contracting, implying bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI(6) ~53.3 is neutral (no overbought/oversold), consistent with consolidation.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest a transition/sideways phase rather than a strong trend.
Levels to watch: Near-term resistance is R1 ~44.711 then R2 ~45.591. Supports: Pivot ~43.286, then S1 ~41.861.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Mixed-to-cautious overall. There have been multiple Underperform calls/initiations (Bernstein $38; Wolfe $43) centered on valuation, decelerating growth, and margin pressure. Barclays stayed Equal Weight and nudged its target down to $43 after Q4, explicitly noting volume growth coming with lower pricing. On the bullish side, Jefferies upgraded to Buy with a $52 target, citing confidence in low-double-digit sales growth into 2026 driven by share gains and vending/large accounts.
Wall Street pros: Consistent sales/EPS growth, market share gains, vending/large account penetration.
Wall Street cons: Valuation/multiple compression risk, pricing pressure, and gross margin headwinds.
Net: Street view is split; the optimistic case exists, but skepticism is meaningful and limits how “clean” the bull thesis is at current levels.
Wall Street analysts forecast FAST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FAST is 45 USD with a low forecast of 38 USD and a high forecast of 52 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Wall Street analysts forecast FAST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FAST is 45 USD with a low forecast of 38 USD and a high forecast of 52 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Current: 43.620
Current: 43.620
