Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, let me provide a comprehensive analysis of ETSY's current situation:

Recent Price Movement and Technical Analysis

ETSY stock experienced a significant decline of -10.05% during regular market hours on February 19, 2025, closing at $51.53. The stock traded with high volume of 13.3M shares, substantially above its average volume, indicating strong selling pressure.

Earnings Miss and Revenue Concerns

According to recent reports, ETSY missed Wall Street's revenue estimates in its latest earnings release. Key concerns include:

• Decreased gross merchandise sales (GMS) on the platform
• Reduced consumer spending on discretionary products
• Impact of a shortened holiday season
• Increased competition in the retail market

Technical Indicators

Current technical signals show bearish momentum:

• RSI-14 at 41.30 indicates neutral but weakening momentum
• MACD shows minimal bullish divergence (0.09)
• Stock is trading below both its 60-day (55.03) and 200-day (56.29) moving averages

Fibonacci Levels

• Current Support: $51.69 (S1)
• Next Support: $49.93 (S2)
• Key Resistance: $57.42 (R1)

Fundamental Analysis

Financial Performance (2023 vs 2022):

• Revenue increased to $2.75B from $2.57B
• Net income improved to $307.6M from -$694.3M
• Gross margin slightly decreased to 70.05% from 70.98%

Market Position and Challenges highlight several key challenges:

• Declining active buyers
• Consistent tapering of GMS
• Increased marketing expenses (up 8% YoY)
• Competition from larger platforms like Amazon

Conclusion

Given the technical weakness, earnings miss, and fundamental challenges, ETSY appears to be in a bearish trend. The stock could find support around the $49.93 level, but breaking below this could lead to further downside. For investors considering entry, waiting for stabilization and improved fundamental metrics would be prudent.

Based on the provided data and recent market events, I'll analyze ETSY's price prediction for 2025.

Recent Performance and Technical Analysis

ETSY has experienced significant weakness, with the stock dropping 10.05% in the latest trading session (February 19, 2025) after missing revenue estimates. The stock closed at $51.53, marking one of its largest single-day declines in recent months.

Fundamental Drivers

Key factors affecting ETSY's 2025 outlook:

1. Revenue Challenges:

• Decreased consumer spending on discretionary products
• Tough year-over-year comparisons
• Shorter holiday season impact
• Increased competition in retail environment

2. Business Model Strength:

• Capital-light business model
• Solid free cash flow generation
• Strong marketplace position in creative and unique goods

Price Target Analysis

Based on technical indicators and fundamental factors, here are the projected scenarios for ETSY in 2025:

Base Case (60% probability): $65-70

• Supported by fibonacci resistance levels at $57.42 and $59.18
• Assumes gradual recovery in consumer discretionary spending
• Marketplace growth stabilization

Bullish Case (25% probability): $75-80

• Breaking above fibonacci R3 level at $62.04
• Significant improvement in consumer spending
• Successful competitive positioning

Bearish Case (15% probability): $45-50

• Breaking below fibonacci S2 support at $49.93
• Continued pressure on discretionary spending
• Further competitive challenges

2025 Price Prediction

Given the current market conditions and analysis, ETSY is expected to reach $67 by end of 2025. This prediction is based on:

1. Technical support levels showing strong base around $51-52
2. Historical valuation metrics suggesting current levels are oversold
3. Expected improvement in consumer discretionary spending by mid-2025

The stock is currently trading at attractive valuations after the recent decline, suggesting potential upside as market conditions improve through 2025.

The S1 support level for ETSY Stock is $50.8 ,The R1 resistant level for ETSY Stock is $57.19.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-21, the price of ETSY Stock was $51.2.

The target price for ETSY Stock according to analyst rating is 54.85, with the highest price target at 67.00 and the lowest at 44.00. Analysts have a Hold rating on ETSY Stock overall.

The market cap of ETSY is $5.5B.

Based on the recent financial data and market performance, ETSY appears to be fairly valued at current levels considering its mixed fundamentals and market position. The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, turning from a net loss of -$694M in 2022 to a profit of $308M in 2023, demonstrating operational efficiency despite challenging market conditions. Technical indicators suggest the stock is currently oversold with RSI at 41.30 and trading below all major moving averages, indicating potential for a technical rebound. The stock's recent sharp decline of -10.05% in regular trading hours has brought valuations to more reasonable levels, trading at approximately 8x free cash flow. However, the company faces increasing competition in the e-commerce space and shows decelerating growth rates, with revenue growth of only 7.1% year-over-year from 2022 to 2023.

Etsy, Inc. (Etsy) operates two-sided online marketplaces that connect buyers and sellers around the world. The Company’s primary marketplace, Etsy.com, is the global destination for goods made by independent sellers. In addition to its core Etsy marketplace, its brands consist of Reverb Holdings, Inc. (Reverb), its musical instrument marketplace and Depop Limited (Depop), its fashion resale marketplace. Reverb is a two-sided marketplace that connects buyers and sellers of new, used, and vintage music gear from all over the world. It offers Etsy.com sellers a marketplace with buyers along with a range of selling tools and services. The Company’s Depop is engaged in building a diverse and progressive home of fashion. The Reverb and Depop offer on-site advertising services and offer on-site advertising services. The Company’s offerings include jewelry and accessories, clothing and shoes, home and living, wedding and party, toys and entertainment, and art and collections.

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive analysis for ETSY's price prediction for 2030:

Current Market Position and Recent Performance

ETSY has experienced significant challenges recently, with the stock dropping 10.05% in the latest trading session to $51.53. The company missed revenue estimates in its latest earnings report, primarily due to decreased consumer discretionary spending and increased competition in the retail environment.

Growth Drivers and Market Trends

The company maintains a capital-light business model that generates solid free cash flow, which positions it well for long-term growth. The e-commerce marketplace continues to expand its global presence, particularly in key markets like the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and Canada.

Price Target 2030 Projection: $175

The projected price of $175 by 2030 is based on:

• Historical compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of marketplace revenue
• Expanding global e-commerce market penetration
• Strong free cash flow generation capabilities
• Strategic focus on unique and creative goods marketplace positioning

This represents approximately a 240% increase from current levels, driven by Etsy's continued dominance in the handmade and vintage goods e-commerce niche, technological improvements, and expansion into new markets.

ETSY has a total of 2420 employees.