Should I Buy ESNT? ESNT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Essent Group Ltd (ESNT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

65.280

1 Day change

0.08%

52 Week Range

67.090

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is pressing into near-term resistance (R1 ~64.42) ahead of earnings, while insider selling has sharply increased.
Upside exists (most targets 65–75 vs. ~64.19), but the setup is not a high-conviction entry without a proprietary signal and with mixed fundamentals.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, suggesting an established uptrend.
MACD: Histogram +0.3 and expanding, confirming positive momentum.
RSI(6): 66.29 (upper-neutral), showing strength but nearing short-term “hot” territory (less favorable risk/reward for a fresh chase).
Levels: Pivot 62.73; Resistance R1 64.42 then R2 65.47; Support S1 61.03.
Interpretation: Technically constructive, but current price is at/just below resistance, which makes immediate upside less asymmetric unless it cleanly breaks above ~64.4–65.5.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment (Open Interest): Put/Call OI 0.14 is strongly call-skewed (bullish positioning).
Activity: Reported options volume is 0, so the skew is more about existing positioning than fresh conviction today.
Volatility: IV(30d) 38.87 vs. HV 26.54 and IV percentile 78.09 → options imply an elevated move expectation (often consistent with earnings proximity).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Technical uptrend remains intact (bullish moving averages + positive MACD).
- Options positioning is call-heavy (low put/call OI), indicating generally bullish sentiment.
- Earnings catalyst upcoming: Q4 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 (pre-market), EPS est. 1.74.
- Analyst targets still generally above spot (GS 70, KBW 73, Roth 75; Barclays 65).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insider activity: Insiders are Selling, with selling amount up ~192% over the last month (not supportive for an immediate buy decision).
- Fundamentals show modest softening: revenue and net income down YoY in latest reported quarter.
- Event-driven uncertainty: earnings very soon; without a proprietary buy signal, the risk/reward for an impatient entry is less attractive near resistance.
- No supportive near-term news flow (no recent news catalysts).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $311.83M, -1.50% YoY (slight contraction).
Net income: $164.22M, -6.79% YoY (profit declining).
EPS: 1.67, +1.21% YoY (small improvement, likely helped by share count/operating leverage).
Takeaway: Earnings power is holding up on EPS, but top-line and net income trends are not accelerating.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating trend: Predominantly Neutral/Market Perform/Equal Weight, with one notable Buy.
Price target changes (recent):
- Goldman Sachs (2026-01-06): Neutral, PT 70 (raised from 67).
- Barclays (2026-01-06): Equal Weight, PT 65 (trimmed from 66).
- Roth Capital (2026-01-02): Buy, PT 75 (raised from 70).
- Keefe Bruyette (2025-12-18): Market Perform, PT 73 (raised from 71).
Wall St “pros”: expects continued improvement/returns and constructive mortgage environment; multiple PT raises.
Wall St “cons”: credit risk remains the key wildcard; most firms are not outright bullish (ratings skew neutral).

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ESNT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ESNT is 69.8 USD with a low forecast of 65 USD and a high forecast of 75 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 65.230

Low

Averages

69.8

High

Current: 65.230

Low

Averages

69.8

High

Goldman Sachs

Ryan Nash

Neutral

maintain

$67 -> $70

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Ryan Nash

Price Target

$67 -> $70

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Goldman Sachs analyst Ryan Nash raised the firm's price target on Essent Group to $70 from $67 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Regional banks underperformed the market by 200-300 basis points in 2025, weighed by macro concerns and credit worries, though stocks rallied 13% late in the year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Looking to 2026, solid loan growth, net interest income momentum, positive operating leverage, and improving returns support continued multi-year fundamental improvement, with credit risk as the main wildcard, Goldman says.

Barclays

Terry Ma

Equal Weight

maintain

$66 -> $65

2026-01-06

Reason

Barclays

Terry Ma

Price Target

$66 -> $65

2026-01-06

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays analyst Terry Ma lowered the firm's price target on Essent Group to $65 from $66 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm sees additional upside in select consumer finance name in 2026. A "benign' credit environment sets the stage for loan growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays also forecasts a better mortgage origination market in 2026. The firm adjusted price targets as part of its 2026 outlook.

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ESNT Should I Buy

ESNT Should I Buy

Should You Buy Essent Group Ltd (ESNT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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