Should You Buy Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
EL is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor with $50k–$100k who wants to act immediately. Despite improving analyst optimism and generally constructive options sentiment, the near-term technical setup is weakening (negative/expanding MACD) and the latest quarter shows a sharp profitability deterioration (EPS and net income down ~130% YoY). With heavy insider selling and earnings (2026-02-05 pre-market) as a major binary catalyst, the risk/reward is not attractive for an “buy now, hold long-term” decision at today’s price.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Post-market ~114.64, below the pivot (116.41) and near S1 (113.44); downside levels to watch are S1 113.44 then S2 111.61, while resistance sits at 119.38 and 121.21.
Trend: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader trend has improved, but momentum is currently fading.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.277) and expanding bearishly, indicating weakening upside momentum; RSI(6) ~44.9 is neutral-to-soft (not oversold).
Pattern-based near-term odds: Model suggests modest upside next week (+2.78%) but negative bias over the next month (-3.01%).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Clear upward shift in sentiment with multiple price target increases in January 2026 (Argus to $140 Buy; JPMorgan to $131 Overweight; TD Cowen to $130 Hold; Barclays to $100 Equal Weight; Wells Fargo to $111 Equal Weight) and a notable double-upgrade from Raymond James to Strong Buy with a $130 target; BofA added EL to its "US 1" best-ideas list.
Wall Street pros: Turnaround traction, innovation, premium positioning, improved U.S. trends, and potential China recovery.
Wall Street cons: Mixed fundamental backdrop, risk of macro headwinds (FX/oil), and the company still needing to prove sustainable earnings power.
Influential buyers/sellers: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds are neutral; insiders are selling heavily.
Wall Street analysts forecast EL stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EL is 106.76 USD with a low forecast of 70 USD and a high forecast of 130 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Wall Street analysts forecast EL stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EL is 106.76 USD with a low forecast of 70 USD and a high forecast of 130 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Current: 114.620
Current: 114.620
