CF Should I Buy
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CF Industries Holdings Inc is not a strong buy for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy at this time. While the company has demonstrated strong financial performance in the latest quarter, the broader sentiment from analysts, insider selling trends, and potential headwinds in the fertilizer market suggest caution. The stock's recent price increase may not be sustainable given the negative catalysts and lack of strong proprietary trading signals.
The stock shows bullish moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but the MACD histogram is below 0 and negatively contracting, indicating weakening momentum. RSI at 72.701 is in the neutral zone but leaning towards overbought territory. Key resistance levels are at R1: 102.545 and R2: 105.927, while support levels are at S1: 91.597 and S2: 88.215.
Strong Q4 financial performance with revenue up 22.83% YoY and EPS up 37.04% YoY.
Returned $1.7 billion to shareholders and generated $1.79 billion in free cash flow in
Trump’s executive order to boost domestic production of phosphorus and glyphosate could indirectly benefit the fertilizer industry.
Analysts have downgraded the stock with lower price targets, citing concerns about normalizing fertilizer prices, oversupply, and declining ammonia production.
Insider selling has increased by 166.14% over the last month.
The Yazoo City incident has led to a downgraded ammonia production outlook for
Hedge fund buying, while significant, may not offset broader market concerns.
CF Industries reported strong Q4 2025 results with revenue of $1.87 billion (up 22.83% YoY), net income of $404 million (up 23.17% YoY), and EPS of $2.59 (up 37.04% YoY). Gross margin increased to 40.87% (up 5.20% YoY). However, the company anticipates a decline in ammonia production to 9.5 million tons in 2026.
Analysts have a cautious to negative outlook on CF Industries. Rothschild & Co downgraded the stock to Sell with a $72 price target, citing eroding profitability due to normalizing fertilizer prices. Scotiabank, BofA, and Mizuho have also lowered price targets, with concerns about oversupply and a mixed agricultural outlook. The consensus is neutral to bearish, with limited optimism for the near term.
