Should You Buy CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. CF is trading near resistance with overbought momentum and bearish-leaning options positioning, while Wall Street price targets have been cut recently. I would HOLD and avoid initiating a new position at $92.8; the better long-term entry would be on a pullback closer to the high-$80s (around the ~$88 pivot) rather than chasing strength here.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: CF at $92.8 is sitting right under R1 ($92.935) and below R2 ($95.557), after moving up from the $88.691 pivot. This is a resistance-heavy area.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.906) but “positively contracting,” which often implies upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI: RSI(6) at 74.47 indicates the stock is stretched/near overbought conditions (despite the label provided). That typically reduces near-term upside for an impatient entry.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest the trend is not strongly directional and can be prone to reversals around key levels.
Pattern-based short-horizon odds: Similar-pattern study shows a 60% chance of -0.62% next day, -1.87% next week, and -8.38% next month—tilting the near-term risk/reward against buying at current levels.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Predominantly Neutral/Sector Perform ratings with a series of price target reductions into late 2025/early 2026. Key changes include BofA cutting PT to $78 (Underperform), Mizuho to $88 (Neutral), RBC to $90 (Sector Perform), UBS to $91 (Neutral), plus CIBC initiating Neutral at $87. A notable positive outlier is Wells Fargo Overweight with a $100 PT.
Wall Street pros: Constructive nitrogen/ammonia backdrop, strong free cash flow and shareholder returns, potential upside if operational initiatives and clean-energy buildout gain traction.
Wall Street cons: Viewed as fairly valued by several firms; concerns about commodity/cycle risk and limited upside if fertilizer pricing momentum softens; multiple PT cuts suggest expectations are being trimmed.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days, and no politician transaction information was provided here.
Wall Street analysts forecast CF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CF is 91.6 USD with a low forecast of 78 USD and a high forecast of 110 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Wall Street analysts forecast CF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CF is 91.6 USD with a low forecast of 78 USD and a high forecast of 110 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Current: 94.030
Current: 94.030
