CF Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how CF performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, CF sees a +1.95% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.36% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.46%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
CF Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.37B
7.62%
-12.85%
Gross Margin
32.48%
11.73%
-24.80%
Operating Margin
26.57%
14.28%
-34.94%
Net Margin
24.89%
37.74%
-22.68%
EPS
1.55
82.35%
-32.61%
No Data Available
CF Earnings Analysis
CF Industries Holding, Inc. Corporation (CF.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Adjusted EBITDA Performance: 1. Strong Adjusted EBITDA: CF Industries generated an adjusted EBITDA of $511 million in Q3 2024, contributing to a total of $1.7 billion for the first nine months of the year.
Strong Cash Flow Performance: 2. Robust Cash Flow: The company reported net cash from operations of $2.3 billion and free cash flow of approximately $1.5 billion over the past 12 months, with a free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate of about 65%.
Share Repurchase Activity: 3. Significant Share Repurchases: Since the start of 2024, CF Industries has repurchased nearly 15 million shares for over $1.1 billion, reducing its share count by 7.5% and maintaining $1.5 billion remaining on its share repurchase authorization.
Ammonia Utilization Performance: 4. High Ammonia Utilization Rate: The ammonia utilization rate for Q3 was 93%, with expectations to produce approximately 9.8 million tons of gross ammonia for the full year, indicating strong operational performance.
Favorable Nitrogen Market Conditions: 5. Positive Market Dynamics: The global nitrogen supply-demand balance remains constructive, with lower urea exports from China and robust demand from countries like Brazil and India, positioning CF Industries favorably in the market.
Negative
Chinese Urea Export Decline: 1. Lowered Chinese Urea Exports: Urea exports from China are 90% lower through September than the prior year, creating uncertainty in global nitrogen supply and contributing to a tighter market outlook.
Hurricane Production Disruptions: 2. Production Impacts from Hurricane: Minor production impacts were reported in Louisiana due to Hurricane Francine, indicating vulnerability to weather-related disruptions that could affect operational efficiency.
European Production Challenges: 3. Concerns Over European Production: The marginal high-cost production in Europe is under threat due to rising energy costs and capacity shutdowns, which could lead to increased import requirements and potential supply shortages.
Farmer Purchase Delays: 4. Delayed Purchases by Farmers: Farmers are exhibiting delayed purchasing behavior due to cash management concerns, which could impact demand for nitrogen products in the near term.
Geopolitical Market Risks: 5. Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, pose risks to market stability and could affect supply chains and pricing dynamics in the nitrogen market.
CF FAQs
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CF Earning Call Sentiment
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
CF.N
2.31%Positive
The earnings call summary shows strong financial performance with robust free cash flow and a significant share repurchase program, indicating positive shareholder returns. The Q&A session provides insights into the company's strategic focus on growth and market optimism, despite some concerns about logistics and external factors. The announcement of a potential Greenfield low-carbon ammonia plant and a positive outlook for nitrogen pricing further enhance the sentiment. Overall, the combination of strong financials, strategic growth initiatives, and market optimism suggests a positive stock price movement.
