Should I Buy BLBD? BLBD 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

49.370

1 Day change

-0.78%

52 Week Range

61.950

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

Buy now for a beginner, long-term investor. Blue Bird shows a clearly bullish technical structure (SMA5>SMA20>SMA200), strong and accelerating Q4 FY2025 growth, and consistently positive analyst actions with raised price targets. Options positioning is notably call-skewed (bullish sentiment). With $50,000–$100,000 available and no desire to wait for an “optimal” dip, BLBD is a good buy at current levels around $49.68 ahead of the Feb 4 earnings event.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bullish overall. Moving averages are stacked bullishly (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating sustained upward momentum. MACD histogram is positive (0.3) but contracting, which suggests the uptrend is intact but near-term momentum is moderating. RSI_6 at ~58 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought). Key levels: pivot ~49.21 (price is slightly above), near-term resistance at R1 ~50.44 then R2 ~51.19; support at S1 ~47.98 then S2 ~47.23. Net: technically constructive with a mild risk of short-term consolidation, but not showing a breakdown.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment from options is bullish: both open interest and volume put-call ratios are low (more calls vs puts). However, implied volatility is elevated (30D IV ~72.71) and IV percentile is high (88), implying the market is pricing a meaningful move (likely around the upcoming earnings). For stock investors, this reads as bullish positioning but higher event-driven volatility risk into earnings.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

1) Upcoming earnings catalyst: Q1 FY2026 results webcast on Feb 4, 2026 (after hours), which can re-rate the stock if execution continues.
2) Strong recent operating performance: FY2025 Q4 showed strong YoY gains in revenue, margins, EPS, and net income.
3) Analyst support strengthening: multiple firms recently raised price targets and reiterated Buy ratings, reinforcing institutional confidence.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

1) Elevated implied volatility (IV percentile 88) signals the market expects a sizable move; earnings can create sharp swings.
2) Momentum is positive but cooling (MACD histogram contracting), so the stock may consolidate near resistance (~50.44–51.19).
3) Short-term pattern probabilities suggest potential near-term softness (model indicates ~-2.13% next week), even if the 1-month bias is positive.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: FY2025 Q4. Growth trends were strong across the board: Revenue $409.365M (+16.89% YoY), Net Income $36.497M (+47.98% YoY), EPS $1.12 (+53.42% YoY), and Gross Margin 21.11% (up materially, +24.03% YoY). Overall, this is a high-quality quarter with expanding profitability, supporting a long-term buy thesis.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst trend is clearly improving: all noted actions are Buy reiterations with price target increases (Needham raised PT to $70 from $53 on 2025-11-03; BofA raised PT to $62 from $60 on 2025-11-25; DA Davidson raised PT to $76 from $70 on 2025-11-25). Wall Street pros: strong execution, revenue/EBITDA beats, strong outlook commentary, and perceived scarcity value in the specialty vehicle space. Cons: optimism is increasingly reflected in expectations, so the next earnings print (Feb 4) matters. Ownership/trading checks: hedge funds neutral, insiders neutral; no recent Congress trading data available.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BLBD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BLBD is 59.2 USD with a low forecast of 49 USD and a high forecast of 70 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 49.760

Low

Averages

59.2

High

Current: 49.760

Low

Averages

59.2

High

DA Davidson

Buy

maintain

$70 -> $76

AI Analysis

2025-11-25

Reason

DA Davidson

Price Target

$70 -> $76

AI Analysis

2025-11-25

maintain

Buy

Reason

DA Davidson raised the firm's price target on Blue Bird to $76 from $70 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Revenues and EBITDA beat the firm's estimates and consensus, and the company's Q1 outlook was well ahead of expectation, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Blue Bird's FY26 guidance as a whole was maintained, but clearly suggest the management's "signature conservatism", the firm added.

BofA

Buy

maintain

$60 -> $62

2025-11-25

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$60 -> $62

2025-11-25

maintain

Buy

Reason

BofA raised the firm's price target on Blue Bird to $62 from $60 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company ended the fiscal year on "a high note" with "another strong set of results." The company continues to execute at a high level, reinvest in the business, and has outlined plans to deploy cash over the coming two years, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.

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BLBD Should I Buy

BLBD Should I Buy

Should You Buy Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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