Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's a comprehensive analysis of AWK's valuation:
Technical Analysis
The stock is currently showing bearish momentum with RSI at 51.91 and MACD divergence, indicating potential weakness. The price is trading between the 20-day SMA ($124.62) and 60-day SMA ($127.68), suggesting a consolidation phase.
Valuation Metrics
- Current P/E (TTM): 26.99x
- EV/EBITDA: 17.09x
- P/B: 2.62x
- Dividend Yield: 2.47%
Fundamental Analysis
- Revenue Growth (YoY): 11.7%
- Net Income Growth (YoY): 15.1%
- Current Ratio: 0.65 (decreased from 0.44 YoY)
- Debt to Equity: 126.28% (improved from 160.99% YoY)
Recent Performance & Analyst Sentiment
The stock has significantly underperformed the broader market:
- AWK YTD Return: 1.9%
- S&P 500 YTD Return: 4.0%
Analyst consensus shows a "Moderate Buy" rating with:
- 4 Strong Buy
- 1 Moderate Buy
- 8 Hold
- 2 Moderate Sell
- Mean Price Target: $139.25 (9.8% upside potential)
Conclusion: AWK appears overvalued based on several factors:
- Trading at premium multiples compared to historical averages
- Weak technical indicators suggesting potential downside
- High debt levels despite recent improvement
- Underperformance relative to broader market
- Mixed analyst sentiment with significant hold ratings