Should You Buy Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
62.800
1 Day change
-3.92%
52 Week Range
100.000
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy for a long-term investor right now. AFRM is trading near a key support zone (~68.9) after weakening momentum, while the news flow (bank charter application + Bolt partnership) and a fresh analyst upgrade provide meaningful upside catalysts. Despite short-term bearish technicals and heavy insider selling, the setup is attractive for a beginner long-term investor who wants to deploy capital immediately rather than wait.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Pre-market ~69.19, sitting just above S1 ~68.916 (near-term support) and below the pivot ~72.136 (near-term trend line in the sand). A move back above ~72 improves the near-term technical picture; a breakdown below ~68.9 risks a drop toward S2 ~66.926.
Momentum: MACD histogram -1.109 and expanding negatively = bearish momentum still building.
RSI: RSI_6 ~28.7 indicates short-term oversold/washed-out conditions (often supportive of a bounce), even though momentum is still negative.
Trend: Converging moving averages suggests the stock is at an inflection area (compression), but the MACD implies the immediate trend is still down.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment read: Open interest put-call ratio at 1.09 shows slightly more downside positioning/hedging outstanding (cautious backdrop). However, the put-call ratio on today’s option volume is 0.52, meaning calls dominated today’s trading activity (more bullish/“buy-the-dip” behavior).
Volatility: 30D IV ~69.7 vs HV ~71.6 (IV slightly below realized), with IV percentile ~46.8 (not extremely crowded). Volume vs 30D average ~76.9% suggests today’s options activity is not unusually elevated.
Technical Summary
Sell
11
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
1) Bank charter application: Potentially lowers funding costs via deposits, reduces third-party dependency, and could accelerate product development—described as a potential “game-changer” by Needham.
2) Bolt partnership: Affirm becomes Bolt’s default BNPL provider, expanding distribution at checkout and potentially boosting merchant-driven volume.
3) Analyst momentum: Multiple recent Buy/Overweight ratings and strong price targets can support incremental institutional interest.
4) Sector tailwind: Citi is bullish on BNPL in 2026, expecting share gains and ~20% volume growth for the category.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Heavy insider selling: Insider selling activity is flagged as rising sharply (reported +9784% over the last month), which is a near-term sentiment negative.
2) Technical weakness: Bearish MACD and price below the pivot (~72.1) indicate sellers still control the short-term trend.
3) Earnings event risk: Next earnings 2026-02-05 (after hours). The stock can swing sharply around results and guidance.
4) Profitability noise: Latest quarter shows sharp YoY declines in net income and EPS (profitability trajectory looks inconsistent despite strong revenue growth).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q1.
- Revenue: 933.337M, up +33.62% YoY (strong top-line growth).
- Net income: 80.694M, down -180.52% YoY (large deterioration vs prior year period).
- EPS: 0.23, down -174.19% YoY (profitability per share declined sharply YoY).
- Gross margin: 92.33%, up +0.11% YoY (stable/high margin profile, but bottom-line volatility remains the issue).
Bottom line: Growth is strong, but earnings quality/consistency is the key area to watch—especially with funding strategy potentially changing if the bank charter progresses.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings and targets have skewed more positive in January 2026.
- 2026-01-27 Needham: upgraded to Buy from Hold; PT $100 (bank charter seen as major catalyst).
- 2026-01-26 Cantor: initiated Overweight; PT $85 (strong execution/network).
- 2026-01-08 TD Cowen: Buy; PT trimmed to $110 from $115.
- 2025-12-16 BofA: Buy; PT $97 (minor trim).
- 2025-12-09 Wolfe: Peer Perform; fair value range $72–$82 (more cautious; wants a better entry).
Wall Street pros: (1) Structural BNPL adoption and share gains, (2) partner ecosystem expansion, (3) potential funding advantage if bank charter succeeds.
Wall Street cons: (1) valuation/entry sensitivity (Wolfe), (2) earnings/profitability volatility, (3) macro/credit cycle sensitivity for consumer lending.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Wall Street analysts forecast AFRM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AFRM is 95.5 USD with a low forecast of 83 USD and a high forecast of 114 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AFRM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AFRM is 95.5 USD with a low forecast of 83 USD and a high forecast of 114 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 65.360
Low
83
Averages
95.5
High
114
Current: 65.360
Low
83
Averages
95.5
High
114
Needham
Hold
to
Buy
upgrade
$100
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
Reason
Needham
Price Target
$100
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
upgrade
Hold
to
Buy
Reason
Needham upgraded Affirm to Buy from Hold with a $100 price target. The company submitted an application to establish Affirm Bank, a proposed Nevada-chartered industrial loan company, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes this could be a "game-changer" for Affirm. A bank would give the company access to deposit funding for loans, reduce its third-party risk by moving several products in-house, and potentially accelerate its growth and product development, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Needham is now increasingly confident in Affirm's medium-term growth and profitability outlook.
Cantor Fitzgerald
Ramsey El-Assal
Overweight
initiated
$85
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald
Ramsey El-Assal
Price Target
$85
2026-01-26
New
initiated
Overweight
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal initiated coverage of Affirm with an Overweight rating and $85 price target.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for AFRM
