U.S.-China Trade Strains Intensify: ETF Sectors Expected to Suffer the Most

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

WMT-1.28%

GEHC+0.97%

TSLT+8.31%

Source: NASDAQ.COM

Updated: Oct 13 2025

0mins

Source: NASDAQ.COM

Market Reaction to Trade Tensions: U.S. stocks experienced significant declines on October 10, 2025, following President Trump's threats of increased tariffs on Chinese goods, particularly in response to China's new restrictions on rare earth metals, crucial for technology and defense sectors.
Impact on Key Sectors: Semiconductor companies like Qualcomm, AMD, and NVIDIA, which have substantial revenue exposure to China, faced sharp stock declines. Additionally, major retailers and tech companies, including Apple and Tesla, are expected to be adversely affected by the escalating trade war and potential price increases due to tariffs.

WMT

$117.83+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on WMT

Wall Street analysts forecast WMT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for WMT is 125.75 USD with a low forecast of 119.00 USD and a high forecast of 136.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

26 Analyst Rating

25 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 119.360

Low

119.00

Averages

125.75

High

136.00

Current: 119.360

Low

119.00

Averages

125.75

High

136.00

Oppenheimer

Outperform

maintain

$115 -> $125

2026-01-08

Reason

Oppenheimer

Price Target

$115 -> $125

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer raised the firm's price target on Walmart to $125 from $115 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm still believes the pieces are in place to support an outperformance case going forward. Further, Oppenheimer thinks management remains well positioned to deliver on the company's longer-term algorithm of about 4% sales growth and 4%-8% operating income growth. Following significant multiple expansion in recent years, the firm would characterize the bull run as more in the middle to later innings. It views the setup as trickier in the very short term as management could guide below the Street when it introduces FY26 targets in mid-February. Oppenheimer would take advantage of any dips associated with a likely initial "only" algorithm guide.

Deutsche Bank

Krisztina Katai

resume

$119

2026-01-08

Reason

Deutsche Bank

Krisztina Katai

Price Target

$119

2026-01-08

resume

Reason

Deutsche Bank analyst Krisztina Katai resumed coverage of Walmart with a Hold rating and $119 price target. The firm resumed coverage of the broadlines and food retailers. Deutsche expects 2026 to be another "mixed year," characterized by food disinflation, reduced government benefits, and consumers' value focus extending into the new year. The analyst says that while defensive sectors such as food retail could face a challenging setup, "there are tailwinds on the horizon," including a sizable stimulus in the first half of 2026.

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Barclays

Seth Sigman

Overweight

maintain

$108 -> $125

2026-01-08

Reason

Barclays

Seth Sigman

Price Target

$108 -> $125

2026-01-08

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Barclays analyst Seth Sigman raised the firm's price target on Walmart to $125 from $108 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is positive on the broadlines, hardlines and food retail sector entering 2026. It sees improvements in discretionary goods demand with potential for a "modest bump" from consumer tax savings ahead and interest rate cuts.

KeyBanc

Overweight

maintain

$120 -> $128

2026-01-07

Reason

KeyBanc

Price Target

$120 -> $128

2026-01-07

maintain

Overweight

Reason

KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Walmart to $128 from $120 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm continues to view Walmart as one of the most compelling investments in consumer/retail and one of the best positioned to navigate the current environment.

About WMT

Walmart Inc. is a technology-powered omnichannel retailer. The Company is engaged in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, as well as eCommerce Websites and mobile applications, located throughout the United States (U.S.), Africa, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India and Mexico. It operates in three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International and Sam's Club U.S. The Walmart U.S. segment includes the Company's mass merchandising concept in the U.S., as well as eCommerce, which includes omni-channel initiatives and certain other business offerings such as advertising services. The Walmart International segment consists of the Company's operations outside of the U.S. through its subsidiaries, as well as eCommerce and omni-channel initiatives. The Sam's Club U.S. segment includes the warehouse membership clubs in the U.S., as well as samsclub.com and omni-channel initiatives.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.