U.S. Private Sector Employment Continues to Grow
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 8 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy ADP?
Source: PRnewswire
- Employment Growth Trend: For the four weeks ending February 7, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 12,750 jobs per week, marking the fourth consecutive week of job gains, indicating a strengthening economic recovery.
- Data Source and Adjustments: These figures are derived from the NER Pulse, utilizing ADP's finely tuned high-frequency data that is seasonally adjusted, ensuring accurate estimates of real-time employment trends and reflecting ongoing labor demand in the market.
- Release Frequency and Transparency: The NER Pulse is published every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m., providing week-over-week employment changes based on a four-week moving average, ensuring that policymakers and businesses can access the latest employment market dynamics for better decision-making.
- Future Release Schedule: The next NER Pulse will be released on March 10, 2026, with ADP Research collaborating with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab to enhance work productivity through data-driven discoveries, assisting businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions.
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Analyst Views on ADP
Wall Street analysts forecast ADP stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
7 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 205.730
Low
230.00
Averages
276.83
High
332.00
Current: 205.730
Low
230.00
Averages
276.83
High
332.00
About ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. is a provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions. Its segments include Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). Its Employer Services segment serves clients ranging from single-employee small businesses to large enterprises with tens of thousands of employees around the world, offering a range of technology-based HCM solutions, including its cloud-based platforms, and human resource outsourcing (HRO) (other than PEO) solutions. Its offerings include Payroll Services, Benefits Administration, Talent Management, HR Management, Workforce Management, Compliance Services, Insurance Services and Retirement Services. Its PEO business, called ADP TotalSource, provides clients with guidance, technology, comprehensive employee benefits, risk management, safety, and workers’ compensation program. Its compensation management software supports the compensation planning needs.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
U.S. Private Sector Employment Continues to Grow
- Employment Growth Trend: For the four weeks ending February 7, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 12,750 jobs per week, marking the fourth consecutive week of job gains, indicating a strengthening economic recovery.
- Data Source and Adjustments: These figures are derived from the NER Pulse, utilizing ADP's finely tuned high-frequency data that is seasonally adjusted, ensuring accurate estimates of real-time employment trends and reflecting ongoing labor demand in the market.
- Release Frequency and Transparency: The NER Pulse is published every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m., providing week-over-week employment changes based on a four-week moving average, ensuring that policymakers and businesses can access the latest employment market dynamics for better decision-making.
- Future Release Schedule: The next NER Pulse will be released on March 10, 2026, with ADP Research collaborating with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab to enhance work productivity through data-driven discoveries, assisting businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions.
See More
Trump's Tax Law Expected to Boost 2026 Refunds
- Expected Refund Growth: Early data from the Treasury indicates that the average tax refund for 2023 has reached $2,290, an approximate 11% increase from last year, while Trump's tax law is projected to provide an average of $1,000 in stimulus per household in 2026, highlighting the positive impact of the policy.
- Policy Impact Analysis: Trump's tax law changes could further enhance refund growth by increasing the federal deduction cap for state and local taxes and introducing a 'no tax on overtime' deduction, directly affecting households' disposable income and spending power.
- Market Reaction: Research from investment bank Piper Sandler suggests that Trump's 'retroactive tax cuts' could average around $1,000 per refund, although some taxpayers may see significantly higher amounts, which would positively influence market consumption.
- Data Trend Observation: Although current data is still in its early stages, tax policy expert Andrew Lautz notes that typically by late February, refund amounts significantly increase due to the inclusion of earned income tax credits and additional child tax credits, indicating potential for greater refund growth in the coming weeks.
See More
Analysis of Current Labor Market Trends
- Decline in Resignation Rates: Since early 2022, the quit rate has decreased by nearly one-third, indicating a stable labor market; despite job openings nearly halving, the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, showcasing market resilience.
- Narrowing Pay Growth Disparity: According to ADP data, the annual pay growth gap between switchers and stayers has shrunk from 8.4 percentage points in April 2022 to 1.9 percentage points, suggesting diminishing incentives for employee turnover, which may impact labor mobility.
- Industry-Specific Pay Trends: In the high-turnover leisure and hospitality sector, stayers enjoy a pay growth rate of 6.4%, while in construction, switchers have a 6.6 percentage point advantage, highlighting significant pay competition across different industries.
- Changing Recruitment Dynamics: Although hiring has slowed, job ad searches surged by 31% in January compared to December, yet the ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals has declined, indicating longer hiring timelines and a lack of dynamism in the labor market.
See More
Three Top Dividend Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever
- Automatic Data Processing: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) has raised its per-share dividend for the 51st consecutive year, with a current yield of 2.97%, indicating strong performance in cash flow and shareholder returns, particularly as its diverse HR management services continue to attract investor interest amid the rise of artificial intelligence.
- Digital Realty Trust: Digital Realty Trust (DLR), structured as a REIT with over 300 data centers, may not yet have a strong dividend growth record, but its structure allows for most rental profits to be passed to shareholders, offering a forward-looking yield of 2.7%, making it an appealing option for income-seeking investors.
- NextEra Energy: NextEra Energy (NEE) has raised its dividend annually for 31 years, currently yielding 2.44%, and its investments in renewable energy position it favorably in the future energy market, ensuring ongoing cash flow and shareholder returns as electricity demand continues to rise.
- Market Outlook: These three companies demonstrate significant market potential in their respective fields, with ADP diversifying its HR services, DLR leveraging its data center leasing model, and NEE investing in renewables, all providing investors with confidence for long-term holdings, especially amid increasing economic uncertainty.
See More
U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Accelerates
- Job Growth Trend: For the four weeks ending January 31, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 10,250 jobs per week, indicating a strengthening trend in job gains for three consecutive weeks, suggesting a gradual economic recovery.
- Data Source and Adjustments: The data comes from the NER Pulse, which is seasonally adjusted based on ADP's high-frequency data, ensuring accurate estimates of real-time employment trends and reflecting sustained demand for labor in the market.
- Historical Data Comparison: Compared to the previous week, the job additions on January 31 increased by 32% from 7,750 jobs on January 24, showcasing a robust recovery in the job market that could positively impact consumer confidence and spending.
- Future Release Schedule: The next NER Pulse will be released on February 24, 2026, with ADP Research collaborating with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab to regularly provide employment data, aiding businesses and policymakers in making more informed decisions.
See More
Market Sell-Off Drives Multiple Stocks to 52-Week Lows
- ADP Stock Potential: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) has seen a 25% decline in its stock price over the past six months, currently trading at a forward P/E of only 21 times; if market sentiment improves, the stock could rerate to 25-30 times forward earnings, enhancing investor confidence and improving valuation.
- American Water Works Merger Outlook: American Water Works (AWK) faces pressure from high interest rates and regulatory scrutiny, and while its merger with Essential Utilities has shareholder approval, it still requires regulatory clearance; if successful, it could help achieve long-term earnings and dividend growth targets of 7%-9%.
- PayPal Management Change: Following a CEO change, PayPal's stock has dropped nearly 21% due to weak earnings and market confidence; currently trading at less than 8 times forward earnings, a strategic alternative from the new management team could catalyze a rebound in shares.
- AI Impact Market Concerns: The market's fears regarding the potential disruptive effects of generative AI on various sectors have led to sell-offs in non-tech stocks, although this bearish sentiment may be overstated, necessitating close attention to the fundamental changes in affected companies.
See More
U.S. Private Sector Employment Continues to Grow
- Employment Growth Trend: For the four weeks ending February 7, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 12,750 jobs per week, marking the fourth consecutive week of job gains, indicating a strengthening economic recovery.
- Data Source and Adjustments: These figures are derived from the NER Pulse, utilizing ADP's finely tuned high-frequency data that is seasonally adjusted, ensuring accurate estimates of real-time employment trends and reflecting ongoing labor demand in the market.
- Release Frequency and Transparency: The NER Pulse is published every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m., providing week-over-week employment changes based on a four-week moving average, ensuring that policymakers and businesses can access the latest employment market dynamics for better decision-making.
- Future Release Schedule: The next NER Pulse will be released on March 10, 2026, with ADP Research collaborating with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab to enhance work productivity through data-driven discoveries, assisting businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions.
See More
Trump's Tax Law Expected to Boost 2026 Refunds
- Expected Refund Growth: Early data from the Treasury indicates that the average tax refund for 2023 has reached $2,290, an approximate 11% increase from last year, while Trump's tax law is projected to provide an average of $1,000 in stimulus per household in 2026, highlighting the positive impact of the policy.
- Policy Impact Analysis: Trump's tax law changes could further enhance refund growth by increasing the federal deduction cap for state and local taxes and introducing a 'no tax on overtime' deduction, directly affecting households' disposable income and spending power.
- Market Reaction: Research from investment bank Piper Sandler suggests that Trump's 'retroactive tax cuts' could average around $1,000 per refund, although some taxpayers may see significantly higher amounts, which would positively influence market consumption.
- Data Trend Observation: Although current data is still in its early stages, tax policy expert Andrew Lautz notes that typically by late February, refund amounts significantly increase due to the inclusion of earned income tax credits and additional child tax credits, indicating potential for greater refund growth in the coming weeks.
See More
Analysis of Current Labor Market Trends
- Decline in Resignation Rates: Since early 2022, the quit rate has decreased by nearly one-third, indicating a stable labor market; despite job openings nearly halving, the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, showcasing market resilience.
- Narrowing Pay Growth Disparity: According to ADP data, the annual pay growth gap between switchers and stayers has shrunk from 8.4 percentage points in April 2022 to 1.9 percentage points, suggesting diminishing incentives for employee turnover, which may impact labor mobility.
- Industry-Specific Pay Trends: In the high-turnover leisure and hospitality sector, stayers enjoy a pay growth rate of 6.4%, while in construction, switchers have a 6.6 percentage point advantage, highlighting significant pay competition across different industries.
- Changing Recruitment Dynamics: Although hiring has slowed, job ad searches surged by 31% in January compared to December, yet the ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals has declined, indicating longer hiring timelines and a lack of dynamism in the labor market.
See More
Three Top Dividend Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever
- Automatic Data Processing: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) has raised its per-share dividend for the 51st consecutive year, with a current yield of 2.97%, indicating strong performance in cash flow and shareholder returns, particularly as its diverse HR management services continue to attract investor interest amid the rise of artificial intelligence.
- Digital Realty Trust: Digital Realty Trust (DLR), structured as a REIT with over 300 data centers, may not yet have a strong dividend growth record, but its structure allows for most rental profits to be passed to shareholders, offering a forward-looking yield of 2.7%, making it an appealing option for income-seeking investors.
- NextEra Energy: NextEra Energy (NEE) has raised its dividend annually for 31 years, currently yielding 2.44%, and its investments in renewable energy position it favorably in the future energy market, ensuring ongoing cash flow and shareholder returns as electricity demand continues to rise.
- Market Outlook: These three companies demonstrate significant market potential in their respective fields, with ADP diversifying its HR services, DLR leveraging its data center leasing model, and NEE investing in renewables, all providing investors with confidence for long-term holdings, especially amid increasing economic uncertainty.
See More
U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Accelerates
- Job Growth Trend: For the four weeks ending January 31, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 10,250 jobs per week, indicating a strengthening trend in job gains for three consecutive weeks, suggesting a gradual economic recovery.
- Data Source and Adjustments: The data comes from the NER Pulse, which is seasonally adjusted based on ADP's high-frequency data, ensuring accurate estimates of real-time employment trends and reflecting sustained demand for labor in the market.
- Historical Data Comparison: Compared to the previous week, the job additions on January 31 increased by 32% from 7,750 jobs on January 24, showcasing a robust recovery in the job market that could positively impact consumer confidence and spending.
- Future Release Schedule: The next NER Pulse will be released on February 24, 2026, with ADP Research collaborating with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab to regularly provide employment data, aiding businesses and policymakers in making more informed decisions.
See More
Market Sell-Off Drives Multiple Stocks to 52-Week Lows
- ADP Stock Potential: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) has seen a 25% decline in its stock price over the past six months, currently trading at a forward P/E of only 21 times; if market sentiment improves, the stock could rerate to 25-30 times forward earnings, enhancing investor confidence and improving valuation.
- American Water Works Merger Outlook: American Water Works (AWK) faces pressure from high interest rates and regulatory scrutiny, and while its merger with Essential Utilities has shareholder approval, it still requires regulatory clearance; if successful, it could help achieve long-term earnings and dividend growth targets of 7%-9%.
- PayPal Management Change: Following a CEO change, PayPal's stock has dropped nearly 21% due to weak earnings and market confidence; currently trading at less than 8 times forward earnings, a strategic alternative from the new management team could catalyze a rebound in shares.
- AI Impact Market Concerns: The market's fears regarding the potential disruptive effects of generative AI on various sectors have led to sell-offs in non-tech stocks, although this bearish sentiment may be overstated, necessitating close attention to the fundamental changes in affected companies.
See More
