United Airlines Projects $12-$14 EPS for 2026, Exceeding Analyst Estimates
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy UAL?
Source: stocktwits
- 2026 Earnings Outlook: United Airlines projects adjusted earnings per share of $12 to $14 for 2026, surpassing the analyst estimate of $13.07, indicating strong profitability and market confidence.
- Aircraft Delivery Plans: The company intends to take delivery of over 100 narrowbody aircraft and about 20 Boeing 787s in 2026, aiming to scale operations and enhance competitive positioning in the market.
- Strong Q4 Performance: For Q4 2025, United reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.10, exceeding the analyst estimate of $2.94, with quarterly revenue hitting $15.4 billion, marking the highest in the company's history and reflecting robust market demand.
- Positive Stock Market Reaction: Following the upbeat outlook for 2026, United Airlines shares rose 4% in after-hours trading, reflecting investor confidence in future growth and positive market sentiment.
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Analyst Views on UAL
Wall Street analysts forecast UAL stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 95.080
Low
115.00
Averages
139.07
High
156.00
Current: 95.080
Low
115.00
Averages
139.07
High
156.00
About UAL
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is a holding company. The Company transports people and cargo throughout North America and to destinations in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East and Latin America. The Company, through United Airlines, Inc., and its regional carriers, operates across six continents, with hubs at Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD), Denver International Airport (DEN), George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH), Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), San Francisco International Airport (SFO), Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) and A.B. Won Pat International Airport (GUM). Its hub and spoke system allow it to transport passengers between a large number of destinations with frequent services. The Company has contractual relationships with various regional carriers to provide regional aircraft service branded as United Express. It provides freight and mail transportation services (Air Cargo).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Airport Fee Structure: Fees for checking bags at the airport start at $50, escalating to $75 at the gate, which could deter customers and potentially drive them to competitors, thereby affecting United's market share.
- New Fare Structure: The airline is introducing a tiered fare structure that includes base, standard, and flexible options for premium cabins on long-haul international and select Hawaii flights, aiming to enhance competitiveness in the premium market segment.
- Industry Trends: With global average jet fuel prices more than doubling compared to the previous month, United and other U.S. airlines like JetBlue are raising baggage fees to offset rising maintenance and labor costs, indicating broader financial pressures within the airline industry.
See More
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- Baggage and Lounge Policy: The new fare includes only one checked bag and access to the standard United Club lounge instead of the upscale Polaris lounge, reflecting the airline's balance between offering luxury experiences and controlling costs.
- Intensified Market Competition: With United upgrading its Polaris class to include new suites with sliding doors and larger screens, it signals a rapid push to capture high-end customers, likely prompting similar moves from competitors in the industry.
- Economy Class Adjustments: United is also planning similar segmentation for its Premium Plus class, set to launch in specific markets this month, further enhancing its competitiveness in the high-end travel sector.
See More
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- Industry-Wide Price Hike: Following United's announcement, JetBlue also raised its checked bag fees by up to $9, indicating a broader trend of price increases across the airline industry due to surging fuel expenses.
- Surge in Fuel Costs: Since the U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran on February 28, jet fuel prices have skyrocketed by 80%, becoming the second-largest expense for airlines after labor, which is forcing carriers to adjust their pricing strategies.
- Customer Discount Policies: Despite the fee increases, United Airlines continues to offer free checked bags for United credit card holders, MileagePlus Premier members, active military personnel, and premium cabin travelers, highlighting its focus on retaining key customer segments.
See More
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- Divergent Energy Sector Performance: Energy producers like Diamondback Energy rose over 2% due to soaring WTI prices, while airline stocks such as American Airlines and Carnival fell more than 4% as rising fuel costs cut into profits, highlighting a clear divergence across sectors.
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See More
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- Unemployment Claims Drop: Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by 9,000 to 202,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the anticipated increase to 212,000, which could provide support for the stock market amid rising inflation concerns.
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