United Airlines Lowers 2026 Earnings Forecast Amid Fuel Cost Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Source: stocktwits
- Earnings Forecast Cut: United Airlines now expects second quarter earnings of $1-$2 per share and full year earnings of $7-$11, a significant reduction from the previous forecast of $12-$14, reflecting increased pressure from fuel costs.
- Fuel Cost Pressure: The company reported a $340 million increase in fuel expenses compared to the same quarter in 2025, and anticipates recovering 40-50% of these costs by the second quarter of 2026; however, if oil prices escalate, earnings could fall to the lower end of the guidance range.
- Flight Schedule Adjustments: To manage rising fuel costs, United plans to fly about 5% less in 2026, resulting in flat total capacity in the third and fourth quarters compared to last year, with potential for further flight cuts or additions based on customer demand.
- Market Opportunities: Despite uncertainties, CEO Scott Kirby expressed optimism that changes in the airline industry could create opportunities for United, reiterating the company's commitment to future growth.
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Analyst Views on UAL
Wall Street analysts forecast UAL stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 98.910
Low
115.00
Averages
139.07
High
156.00
Current: 98.910
Low
115.00
Averages
139.07
High
156.00
About UAL
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is a holding company. The Company transports people and cargo throughout North America and to destinations in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East and Latin America. The Company, through United Airlines, Inc., and its regional carriers, operates across over six continents, with hubs at Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD), Denver International Airport (DEN), George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH), Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), San Francisco International Airport (SFO), Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) and A.B. Won Pat International Airport (GUM). Its hub and spoke system allow it to transport passengers between a large number of destinations with frequent services. The Company has contractual relationships with various regional carriers to provide regional aircraft service branded as United Express. It provides freight and mail transportation services (Air Cargo).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Tariff Policy Impact: Trump expressed hope that U.S. companies that have not sought refunds for his tariffs will adhere to a 'no take back' policy, despite the Supreme Court ruling the tariffs illegal; major firms like Apple and Amazon have yet to file for refunds, which could affect their future financial performance.
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- Earnings Forecast Cut: United Airlines now expects second quarter earnings of $1-$2 per share and full year earnings of $7-$11, a significant reduction from the previous forecast of $12-$14, reflecting increased pressure from fuel costs.
- Fuel Cost Pressure: The company reported a $340 million increase in fuel expenses compared to the same quarter in 2025, and anticipates recovering 40-50% of these costs by the second quarter of 2026; however, if oil prices escalate, earnings could fall to the lower end of the guidance range.
- Flight Schedule Adjustments: To manage rising fuel costs, United plans to fly about 5% less in 2026, resulting in flat total capacity in the third and fourth quarters compared to last year, with potential for further flight cuts or additions based on customer demand.
- Market Opportunities: Despite uncertainties, CEO Scott Kirby expressed optimism that changes in the airline industry could create opportunities for United, reiterating the company's commitment to future growth.
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- Tariff Policy Impact: Trump expressed hope that U.S. companies that have not sought refunds for his tariffs will adhere to a 'no take back' policy, despite the Supreme Court ruling the tariffs illegal; major firms like Apple and Amazon have yet to file for refunds, which could affect their future financial performance.
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- Aviation Industry Outlook: United Airlines has slashed its 2026 earnings outlook due to supply chain issues stemming from the Middle East conflict, reflecting the direct impact of soaring fuel prices on the airline industry and potentially leading to broader industry adjustments.
See More
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- Earnings Forecast Cut: United Airlines now expects second quarter earnings of $1-$2 per share and full year earnings of $7-$11, a significant reduction from the previous forecast of $12-$14, reflecting increased pressure from fuel costs.
- Fuel Cost Pressure: The company reported a $340 million increase in fuel expenses compared to the same quarter in 2025, and anticipates recovering 40-50% of these costs by the second quarter of 2026; however, if oil prices escalate, earnings could fall to the lower end of the guidance range.
- Flight Schedule Adjustments: To manage rising fuel costs, United plans to fly about 5% less in 2026, resulting in flat total capacity in the third and fourth quarters compared to last year, with potential for further flight cuts or additions based on customer demand.
- Market Opportunities: Despite uncertainties, CEO Scott Kirby expressed optimism that changes in the airline industry could create opportunities for United, reiterating the company's commitment to future growth.
See More
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- Ceasefire Extension: President Trump has extended the ceasefire with Iran following a stock market decline due to canceled talks, aiming to stabilize market sentiment and prevent further geopolitical tensions.
- Market Reaction: The stock market's drop reflects investor uncertainty regarding future economic and political conditions, and Trump's decision may help restore confidence among investors.
- Tesla Earnings Upcoming: Amid this backdrop, Tesla is set to release its earnings report, which is expected to significantly impact the stock market, particularly in the current unstable economic environment.
- Geopolitical Implications: Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire not only adjusts U.S. policy towards Iran but may also affect diplomatic relations with other countries, potentially leading to far-reaching consequences for global markets.
See More
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- Stock Fluctuations: The stock ticked up slightly after hours, but remains 19% below its January high, although it has risen 12% over the past month, reflecting market confidence in its short-term performance.
- Industry Dynamics: Boeing's shares have dropped 12% in the last three months and are 14% off their 52-week high, highlighting concerns in the aerospace manufacturing sector.
- Dividend Yield: AT&T offers a quarterly dividend of 28 cents per share, yielding 4.29%, and despite a 13% decline since its September peak, it continues to attract some investor interest.
See More
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- Oil Price Rebound Impact: WTI crude oil prices rebounded by over 2% after Iran announced it would not attend peace talks, raising fears of a deepening global energy crisis, which could further hinder economic recovery.
- Supportive Economic Data: March retail sales rose by 1.7% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of 1.4%, indicating robust consumer spending that may provide some support for the stock market, despite overall market pressures.
- Fed Nominee Supports Independence: Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh emphasized the importance of monetary policy independence and controlling inflation in his Senate Banking Committee statement, which could positively influence market confidence.
See More
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- Capital One Earnings Miss: Capital One Financial Group reported first-quarter earnings of $4.42 per share, falling short of the $4.55 estimate, with revenue of $15.23 billion also below the $15.36 billion forecast, leading to a nearly 4% drop in stock price.
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- Adobe Stock Buyback Plan: Adobe's board approved a $25 billion stock repurchase program through April 2030, which comes as its stock has fallen over 29% year-to-date, yet shares rose more than 2% following the announcement.
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