United Airlines Forecasts Record Earnings in 2025 with Adjusted EPS of $12-$14
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 20 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Strong Travel Demand: United Airlines anticipates adjusted earnings per share between $12 and $14 for 2025, aligning with analysts' expectations of $13.16, indicating robust business travel and premium seat sales driving profitability.
- First Quarter Outlook: The airline forecasts first-quarter earnings per share of $1 to $1.50, slightly below analysts' estimate of $1.13, reflecting short-term challenges despite overall strong demand.
- Quarterly Performance Boost: United's fourth-quarter profit rose 6% year-over-year to $1.04 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.10 exceeding market expectations of $2.94, showcasing the company's competitiveness in the premium market.
- Revenue Growth Trend: Although unit revenue fell 1.6% year-over-year, premium revenue increased by 9% in the fourth quarter and 11% for the full year, indicating that the company's strategic focus on high-priced tickets is yielding positive results.
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Analyst Views on UAL
Wall Street analysts forecast UAL stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 95.080
Low
115.00
Averages
139.07
High
156.00
Current: 95.080
Low
115.00
Averages
139.07
High
156.00
About UAL
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is a holding company. The Company transports people and cargo throughout North America and to destinations in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East and Latin America. The Company, through United Airlines, Inc., and its regional carriers, operates across six continents, with hubs at Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD), Denver International Airport (DEN), George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH), Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), San Francisco International Airport (SFO), Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) and A.B. Won Pat International Airport (GUM). Its hub and spoke system allow it to transport passengers between a large number of destinations with frequent services. The Company has contractual relationships with various regional carriers to provide regional aircraft service branded as United Express. It provides freight and mail transportation services (Air Cargo).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Airport Fee Structure: Fees for checking bags at the airport start at $50, escalating to $75 at the gate, which could deter customers and potentially drive them to competitors, thereby affecting United's market share.
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- Industry Trends: With global average jet fuel prices more than doubling compared to the previous month, United and other U.S. airlines like JetBlue are raising baggage fees to offset rising maintenance and labor costs, indicating broader financial pressures within the airline industry.
See More
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- Intensified Market Competition: With United upgrading its Polaris class to include new suites with sliding doors and larger screens, it signals a rapid push to capture high-end customers, likely prompting similar moves from competitors in the industry.
- Economy Class Adjustments: United is also planning similar segmentation for its Premium Plus class, set to launch in specific markets this month, further enhancing its competitiveness in the high-end travel sector.
See More
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- Industry-Wide Price Hike: Following United's announcement, JetBlue also raised its checked bag fees by up to $9, indicating a broader trend of price increases across the airline industry due to surging fuel expenses.
- Surge in Fuel Costs: Since the U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran on February 28, jet fuel prices have skyrocketed by 80%, becoming the second-largest expense for airlines after labor, which is forcing carriers to adjust their pricing strategies.
- Customer Discount Policies: Despite the fee increases, United Airlines continues to offer free checked bags for United credit card holders, MileagePlus Premier members, active military personnel, and premium cabin travelers, highlighting its focus on retaining key customer segments.
See More
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See More
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- Unemployment Claims Drop: Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by 9,000 to 202,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the anticipated increase to 212,000, which could provide support for the stock market amid rising inflation concerns.
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