TSMC Secures One-Year US Export License to Maintain China Operations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 04 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TSM?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Export License Approval: The U.S. Department of Commerce has granted TSMC an annual export license for its Nanjing facility, allowing the import of U.S. chipmaking equipment without separate vendor approvals, thereby ensuring uninterrupted production and timely deliveries, which mitigates operational risks.
- Policy Change Impact: This license approval follows the expiration of special exemptions for select foreign chipmakers, indicating a tightening of export control policies, requiring TSMC to regularly apply for export licenses to maintain its production capabilities in China.
- Limited Financial Impact: TSMC's 2024 annual report indicates that its Nanjing operations account for only 2.4% of total revenue, suggesting that the impact of this license on overall financial health is relatively minor, reflecting the company's limited reliance on the Chinese market.
- Strong Market Performance: Despite potential production disruptions from earthquakes, TSMC's stock has surged over 46% in the past year, primarily driven by robust demand as a key supplier to Nvidia and Apple, showcasing its resilience in the semiconductor market.
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Analyst Views on TSM
Wall Street analysts forecast TSM stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 341.490
Low
63.24
Averages
313.46
High
390.00
Current: 341.490
Low
63.24
Averages
313.46
High
390.00
About TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd is a Taiwan-based integrated circuit foundry service provider. The Company is primarily engaged in integrated circuit manufacturing services. It offers advanced process technologies, specialised process solutions, advanced photomask and silicon stacking, and packaging-related technologies, while supporting a comprehensive design ecosystem. The Company's products serve diverse electronic sectors including artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, wired and wireless communications, automotive and industrial equipment, personal computing, information applications, consumer electronics, smart internet of things, and wearable devices.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Significant Investment: The investment for the second fab plant has reached $17 billion, primarily supported by substantial Japanese government subsidies, reflecting TSMC's commitment to the Japanese market and its strategy to diversify production amid geopolitical risks.
- Notable Technology Upgrade: The upgrade from the initially planned 6-12nm processes to the advanced 3nm technology significantly expands semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, addressing the surging demand for AI chips and laying the groundwork for future electronic products.
- Deepening Strategic Cooperation: The project's advancement is bolstered by the trust between Taiwan and Japan, with TSMC CEO CC Wei announcing the initiative during talks with Japan's PM Sanae Takaichi in 2026, further solidifying bilateral cooperation in the semiconductor sector.
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- Taiwan Semiconductor's Demand: Although historically seen as cyclical, Taiwan Semiconductor's market fluctuations are expected to lessen due to high global semiconductor demand, with a current market cap of $1.8 trillion and a strategic focus on AI chips driving long-term growth.
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- Sales Projection Surge: Nvidia anticipates lifetime sales of its current-generation Blackwell chips and next-generation Vera Rubin chips to reach $1 trillion by the end of 2027, a significant increase from last year's $500 billion forecast, reflecting strong confidence in future market demand.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: Analysts project Nvidia's revenue for FY 2027 to hit $369 billion, a 71% year-over-year increase, with FY 2028 sales expected to reach $480 billion, indicating the company's sustained growth potential in the AI sector.
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- Advanced Process Expansion: TSMC plans to start mass production of 3nm chips at its Kumamoto facility in Japan by 2028, targeting a monthly capacity of 15,000 12-inch wafers, marking Japan's first domestic production of 3nm chips and enhancing its competitiveness in high-performance computing and AI.
- Significant Investment: The investment for the second fab plant has reached $17 billion, primarily supported by substantial Japanese government subsidies, reflecting TSMC's commitment to the Japanese market and its strategy to diversify production amid geopolitical risks.
- Notable Technology Upgrade: The upgrade from the initially planned 6-12nm processes to the advanced 3nm technology significantly expands semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, addressing the surging demand for AI chips and laying the groundwork for future electronic products.
- Deepening Strategic Cooperation: The project's advancement is bolstered by the trust between Taiwan and Japan, with TSMC CEO CC Wei announcing the initiative during talks with Japan's PM Sanae Takaichi in 2026, further solidifying bilateral cooperation in the semiconductor sector.
See More
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- Investment Recommendation Omission: Despite being regarded as one of the best manufacturing companies globally, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing was not included in The Motley Fool's latest list of top 10 stocks, indicating a cautious market sentiment regarding its future performance.
- Historical Return Comparison: The Motley Fool's Stock Advisor has achieved an average return of 914% since inception, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 184%, suggesting the potential profitability of its recommended stocks, and Taiwan Semiconductor's absence may undermine investor confidence.
- Competitive Market Pressure: With the rise of AI technologies, the demand for semiconductors is increasing, and as an industry leader, Taiwan Semiconductor faces competitive pressures from companies like Nvidia and Intel, which could impact its market share and profitability.
- Investor Community Impact: The Motley Fool's emphasis on individual investors highlights the power of retail investors, and Taiwan Semiconductor's exclusion from the top picks may lead to a decline in attention among retail investors, potentially affecting its stock price performance.
See More
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- Surging Sales Projections: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced at the 2026 GTC event that the company expects lifetime sales of its current-generation Blackwell chips and next-generation Vera Rubin chips to reach $1 trillion by the end of 2027, indicating significant future growth potential.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Analysts predict Nvidia's revenue for FY 2027 will hit $369 billion, a 71% year-over-year increase, with FY 2028 expected to reach $480 billion, reflecting strong demand and market share expansion in the AI sector.
- Market's Tepid Response: Despite Huang's robust sales forecast indicating strong growth potential, the market has reacted lukewarmly, with Nvidia's stock price declining since the announcement, suggesting investors may be underestimating the company's long-term growth prospects.
- Investment Opportunity Emerges: Currently, Nvidia's P/E ratio stands at 35, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 23.8, indicating that the market expects 2026 to be a strong year while overlooking Nvidia's long-term profitability in AI development, prompting investors to consider buying while the stock remains undervalued.
See More
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- Industry Leadership: This semiconductor company is regarded as the best manufacturing company globally, consistently leading industry development through its exceptional production capabilities and technological innovations, thereby enhancing its market competitiveness.
- Stock Performance: As of the afternoon of March 30, 2026, the company's stock price showed strong performance, reflecting the market's high recognition of its future growth potential and further solidifying investor confidence.
- Technological Innovation: The company's ongoing innovations in manufacturing processes enable it to maintain a leading position in a fiercely competitive market, driving overall technological advancements in the industry.
- Market Outlook: With the continuous growth in global semiconductor demand, the company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the coming years, further strengthening its market share and profitability.
See More
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- AI Integration at Google: Alphabet has successfully reversed negative market perceptions by integrating generative AI into Google Search, currently boasting a market cap of $3.6 trillion, showcasing its leadership and robust resources in the AI sector.
- Microsoft's Recurring Revenue: Microsoft provides computing resources through its Azure platform for generative AI companies, which is expected to generate continuous revenue post-AI build-out; with its stock currently at a decade-low, it presents an ideal investment opportunity.
- Taiwan Semiconductor's Demand: Although historically seen as cyclical, Taiwan Semiconductor's market fluctuations are expected to lessen due to high global semiconductor demand, with a current market cap of $1.8 trillion and a strategic focus on AI chips driving long-term growth.
- Potential in Future Technologies: Taiwan Semiconductor is not only focused on AI chips but also on emerging technologies like quantum computing and autonomous driving, which could drive significant demand, with its stock currently trading at a 10% discount to its all-time high, indicating substantial upside potential over the next five years.
See More
Nvidia Projects Significant Growth Ahead
- Sales Projection Surge: Nvidia anticipates lifetime sales of its current-generation Blackwell chips and next-generation Vera Rubin chips to reach $1 trillion by the end of 2027, a significant increase from last year's $500 billion forecast, reflecting strong confidence in future market demand.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: Analysts project Nvidia's revenue for FY 2027 to hit $369 billion, a 71% year-over-year increase, with FY 2028 sales expected to reach $480 billion, indicating the company's sustained growth potential in the AI sector.
- Market Reaction Lagging: Despite Nvidia's stock trading at a 35 times earnings ratio, the market has not fully accounted for its long-term growth prospects, revealing investor caution regarding future AI spending and data center construction.
- Investment Opportunity Emerges: With the acceleration of AI data center construction, significant chip purchases from Nvidia are expected in 2027 or 2028, suggesting that investors should seize the current low stock price to potentially reap substantial returns in the future.
See More
