Trump's Pharma Tariffs Can Hit Novo Nordisk, Says Barclays Expert, But It's 'Difficult' To Predict As Drugmakers Have 'Complex Supply Chains'
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jul 16 2025
0mins
Source: Benzinga
Tariffs on Pharmaceuticals: The Trump administration is considering imposing up to 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical companies, with Barclays' Emily Field noting that Novo Nordisk may be particularly affected due to its supply chain in Denmark, while the overall sector is seen as unfavorable for such tariffs.
Impact on Investments and Costs: European pharma companies like Novartis, Roche, and AstraZeneca are planning significant investments in the U.S., but Barclays warns that high tariffs could inflate production costs and lead to drug shortages, negatively impacting patients.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1064.740
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1064.740
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Surge in Market Demand: With the introduction of new therapies, market demand for the company's products has surged, expected to drive sales growth of over 20% in the next year, thereby enhancing overall profitability.
- Increased R&D Investment: The company plans to increase its R&D budget by 30% over the next three years to accelerate the development of new drugs, ensuring it maintains a technological edge in the highly competitive pharmaceutical market.
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- Efficacy Comparison: In clinical trials, oral Wegovy's mean weight loss of 13.6% over 64 weeks significantly outperforms Foundayo's 11.1%, providing Novo Nordisk with a stronger competitive edge, although the latter has some advantages regarding administration restrictions.
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- Industry Leadership: Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate the anti-obesity drug market, with Lilly showing a stronger growth trajectory as its manufacturing capacity expands and Zepbound gains market share, which is expected to further solidify its market position.
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- Live Webcast: The event will feature a live audio webcast available on Lilly's investor website under the 'Webcasts & Presentations' section, ensuring global investors can stay updated on the company's latest developments.
- Replay Availability: A replay of the presentation will be accessible on the same website for approximately 90 days, allowing investors who cannot attend live to access important information, thereby enhancing communication between the company and its investors.
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- Conference Participation: Eli Lilly will participate in the Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference on June 9, 2026, where Executive Vice President Kenneth Custer will engage in a fireside chat at 3:20 p.m. Eastern Time, highlighting the company's advancements in cardiometabolic health.
- Live Webcast: The event will feature a live audio webcast available on Lilly's investor website, allowing global investors to access real-time updates on the company's developments, thereby enhancing transparency and investor confidence.
- Mission Reaffirmation: Lilly is committed to leveraging biotechnology, chemistry, and genetic medicine to tackle significant global health challenges, particularly in innovative drug development for diabetes, obesity, and Alzheimer's disease, further solidifying its leadership in the pharmaceutical industry.
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See More
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- Growth Driven by Innovation: The pharma company is experiencing significant growth due to the launch of multiple innovative treatments, with expectations to maintain strong market performance in the coming quarters, further solidifying its leadership position in the industry.
- Strong Stock Performance: As of the afternoon of May 23, 2026, the company's stock price has shown impressive performance, reflecting strong investor confidence in its future growth potential, which may attract more institutional investors.
- Surge in Market Demand: With the introduction of new therapies, market demand for the company's products has surged, expected to drive sales growth of over 20% in the next year, thereby enhancing overall profitability.
- Increased R&D Investment: The company plans to increase its R&D budget by 30% over the next three years to accelerate the development of new drugs, ensuring it maintains a technological edge in the highly competitive pharmaceutical market.
See More
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly Intensify Anti-Obesity Drug Competition
- Market Competition Dynamics: Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy has taken the lead in the anti-obesity market since its January launch, garnering more prescriptions, while Eli Lilly's Foundayo, launched in April, despite having 80% new users, is trailing in prescription volumes.
- Efficacy Comparison: In clinical trials, oral Wegovy's mean weight loss of 13.6% over 64 weeks significantly outperforms Foundayo's 11.1%, providing Novo Nordisk with a stronger competitive edge, although the latter has some advantages regarding administration restrictions.
- Market Expansion Opportunities: Novo Nordisk's recent EU approval will significantly expand the addressable market for oral Wegovy, further solidifying its position in the anti-obesity drug sector and potentially increasing pressure on Eli Lilly.
- Financial Performance Comparison: Despite trailing in the oral anti-obesity market, Eli Lilly remains strong in chronic weight management, with a 56% year-over-year revenue increase to $19.8 billion in Q1, showcasing the resilience of its diversified drug portfolio.
See More
Trump's Financial Disclosures Reveal Eli Lilly Transactions
- Market Potential: Eli Lilly generated approximately $65 billion in revenue in 2025, largely driven by explosive demand for its anti-obesity drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, which together exceeded $30 billion in sales, indicating a rapid growth trajectory in pharmaceutical history.
- Industry Leadership: Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate the anti-obesity drug market, with Lilly showing a stronger growth trajectory as its manufacturing capacity expands and Zepbound gains market share, which is expected to further solidify its market position.
- Future Earnings Expectations: Analysts project that Lilly's annual earnings per share will reach between $37 and $52 over the next four years, significantly up from $23 in 2025, reflecting its revenue growth in obesity treatments that is expected to outpace most large pharmaceutical peers.
- Investment Risks and Opportunities: While Lilly's valuation is higher than most large-cap pharmaceutical companies, its future growth potential is already priced in, and investors should be cautious of significant volatility if sales growth slows or competition intensifies.
See More
Jim Cramer Recommends Four Stocks for New Investors
- Diversification Strategy: Jim Cramer emphasized the need for diversification even as artificial intelligence dominates the market, ensuring long-term stability in investment portfolios to mitigate risks associated with single-theme investments.
- Stock Recommendations: Cramer recommended four stocks for new members to buy, including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Nvidia, all of which demonstrate strong growth potential, particularly in their AI-related businesses.
- Market Outlook: Despite challenges faced by Meta and Microsoft, Cramer remains cautiously optimistic about their future performance, suggesting that these companies could achieve breakthroughs in the evolving AI landscape.
- Emerging Investment Opportunities: Stocks like Arm Holdings and Broadcom are showing strong performance, particularly in the data center and AI chip sectors, reflecting robust market demand for related technologies, making them worth watching for long-term growth potential.
See More
Eli Lilly to Participate in Global Healthcare Conference
- Conference Participation: Eli Lilly will participate in the Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference on June 9, 2026, where Executive Vice President Kenneth Custer will engage in a fireside chat at 3:20 p.m. Eastern Time, showcasing the company's advancements in cardiometabolic health.
- Live Webcast: The event will feature a live audio webcast available on Lilly's investor website under the 'Webcasts & Presentations' section, ensuring global investors can stay updated on the company's latest developments.
- Replay Availability: A replay of the presentation will be accessible on the same website for approximately 90 days, allowing investors who cannot attend live to access important information, thereby enhancing communication between the company and its investors.
- Company Mission: Eli Lilly is committed to leveraging biotechnology, chemistry, and genetic medicine to tackle significant global health challenges, driving the development of innovative medicines to improve the quality of life for tens of millions, reflecting its leadership in the healthcare sector.
See More
Eli Lilly to Participate in Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference
- Conference Participation: Eli Lilly will participate in the Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference on June 9, 2026, where Executive Vice President Kenneth Custer will engage in a fireside chat at 3:20 p.m. Eastern Time, highlighting the company's advancements in cardiometabolic health.
- Live Webcast: The event will feature a live audio webcast available on Lilly's investor website, allowing global investors to access real-time updates on the company's developments, thereby enhancing transparency and investor confidence.
- Mission Reaffirmation: Lilly is committed to leveraging biotechnology, chemistry, and genetic medicine to tackle significant global health challenges, particularly in innovative drug development for diabetes, obesity, and Alzheimer's disease, further solidifying its leadership in the pharmaceutical industry.
- Historical Legacy: With a 150-year history, Eli Lilly has been dedicated to scientific innovation that improves the quality of life for tens of millions of patients worldwide, showcasing its deep-rooted commitment and responsibility in the healthcare sector.
See More
