Trump Overhauls U.S. Energy Policy to Boost Fossil Fuels
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 06 2026
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Policy Shift: The Trump administration is reshaping U.S. energy policy by shortening permit timelines and reviving drilling, which is expected to significantly boost profits for related companies.
- ExxonMobil's Advantage: As the largest oil and gas producer in the U.S., ExxonMobil is at the center of this policy shift, projecting $25 billion in incremental earnings by 2030, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Cheniere Energy's Growth Potential: As the largest LNG producer in the U.S., Cheniere Energy is expanding its Corpus Christi LNG terminal, guiding for $4.75 billion to $5.25 billion in distributable cash flow by 2026, indicating strong growth prospects.
- GE Vernova's Market Opportunity: GE Vernova's gas turbine orders surged to 100 GW, with expectations to exceed 110 GW by the end of 2026, indicating strong market demand and pricing power under the new policies.
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Analyst Views on XOM
Wall Street analysts forecast XOM stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 140.740
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
Current: 140.740
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
About XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation is an energy provider and chemical manufacturer. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas; the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a wide variety of specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and other new business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima systems, carbon materials, and lithium. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments manufacture and sell petroleum products and petrochemicals. Energy Products segment includes fuels, aromatics, and catalysts and licensing. Chemical Products segment consists of olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. Specialty Products segment includes finished lubricants, basestocks and waxes, synthetics, and elastomers and resins.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Current Energy Market: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a tight supply of oil and natural gas globally, with expectations that Brent crude prices will fall back to $60 per barrel by 2027, although this may involve significant price fluctuations along the way.
- Strategic Reserve Crisis: The U.S. strategic oil reserve is nearing its lowest levels since 1983, necessitating replenishment, which highlights the tense situation in the global energy market and could lead to price increases in the future.
- Market Structural Changes: The UAE's exit from OPEC has lifted production limits, while the U.S. has ramped up exports, increasing global interest in energy security, factors that will reshape future oil movement patterns and may lead to heightened price volatility.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Investors are advised to maintain some exposure to the energy sector, particularly by choosing energy giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron, whose global asset distribution and strong financial positions can help mitigate market fluctuations.
See More
Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Prices Higher
- Market Volatility Ahead: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices up, yet it is anticipated that Brent crude will fall back to around $60 per barrel by 2027, indicating that market fundamentals will soon dictate price movements.
- Strategic Reserve Crisis: The U.S. strategic oil reserve is nearing levels not seen since 1983, highlighting the pressure on global oil and gas supply chains and the urgent need to replenish reserves to meet future demand fluctuations.
- Changes Outside OPEC: The UAE's exit from OPEC has lifted production limits, coupled with increased U.S. exports, signaling fundamental shifts in the global energy market that could lead to greater oil and gas supply in the future, thereby impacting prices.
- Investment Strategy Shift: While investors should consider exposure to the energy sector, a conservative approach is advisable, with energy giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron being ideal choices due to their global asset distribution and robust financial health, making them well-suited to navigate market volatility.
See More
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- Chip Sector Surge: Intel's stock jumped over 10% after President Trump announced a partnership with Apple to design and produce semiconductors domestically, leading the iShares Semiconductor ETF to rise more than 7%, indicating strong momentum in the tech sector.
- Energy Stocks Weaken: WTI crude oil prices fell to a 3.5-month low, causing significant declines in energy stocks, with SLB, ConocoPhillips, and Halliburton dropping over 3%, highlighting concerns over energy price volatility.
- Supportive Economic Data: Initial jobless claims fell to 226,000, close to the expected 225,000, indicating labor market strength, while the Philadelphia Fed business outlook index rose to 10.3, surpassing expectations, further boosting investor confidence.
See More
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- Oil Price Fluctuations: While Iranian tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are falling due to market misconceptions about supply recovery, indicating that investor optimism regarding a quick return to normalcy may lead to increased price volatility in the future.
- Importance of Inventories: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to the use of global oil inventories as a buffer against supply disruptions, but rebuilding these inventories will take time, resulting in demand being higher than normal in the short term, which could affect price stability.
- Industry Warnings: Energy giants ExxonMobil and Chevron have warned that the current U.S. strategic oil reserves are at their lowest level since 1983, suggesting that the timeline for market normalization may be underestimated, with potential for rising oil prices ahead.
- Sustainability Risks of Agreement: Although the reopening agreement may lead to a short-term increase in oil flow, the high-risk nature of the Strait of Hormuz raises questions about the long-term viability of the deal, prompting investors to remain cautious and avoid premature optimism regarding market signals.
See More
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- Price Volatility Warning: Oil prices have recently fallen due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, yet the CEOs of Chevron and ExxonMobil caution that prices do not reflect market fundamentals, indicating that recovery may take longer than anticipated.
- Need for Inventory Rebuilding: With the U.S. strategic oil reserves at their lowest since 1983, Chevron and ExxonMobil emphasize that rebuilding inventories is crucial for restoring supply-demand balance, likely extending the energy market recovery beyond current investor expectations.
- Increased Transportation Risks: While Iranian oil tankers are now moving through the Strait of Hormuz, this high-risk transportation will require time to assess the stability of the new agreement, potentially leading to exaggerated short-term market reactions to oil price fluctuations.
- Caution from Industry Giants: As two of the world's largest energy companies, Chevron and ExxonMobil's insights into market turbulence are invaluable, and investors should heed their warnings to make informed decisions in an uncertain market environment.
See More
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- Oil Price Volatility: Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, oil prices and global stocks have experienced significant volatility, resulting in widespread damage to Middle Eastern oil infrastructure and a shutdown of oil shipments through the vital Strait of Hormuz, impacting global energy supply.
- Energy ETF Performance: The Vanguard Energy ETF has delivered a 25% return year-to-date but has lost about 11% of its value since reaching an all-time high on March 27, indicating uncertainty in the future of energy stocks amid geopolitical tensions.
- Market Reaction: The S&P 500 index is up 10.4% year-to-date and has gained about 19% since hitting a 2026 low on March 30, but this may be bad news for energy stocks as the Vanguard Energy ETF and the S&P 500 have been moving in opposite directions since late March.
- Investment Advice: Although the Vanguard Energy ETF has achieved an average annual return of 21.1% over the past five years, the complex situation in the Middle East suggests that oil prices could plummet in the future, leading to a recommendation for long-term investors to be cautious and avoid heavy investments in oil stocks.
See More
Impact of Middle East Conflict on Energy Market
- Current Energy Market: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a tight supply of oil and natural gas globally, with expectations that Brent crude prices will fall back to $60 per barrel by 2027, although this may involve significant price fluctuations along the way.
- Strategic Reserve Crisis: The U.S. strategic oil reserve is nearing its lowest levels since 1983, necessitating replenishment, which highlights the tense situation in the global energy market and could lead to price increases in the future.
- Market Structural Changes: The UAE's exit from OPEC has lifted production limits, while the U.S. has ramped up exports, increasing global interest in energy security, factors that will reshape future oil movement patterns and may lead to heightened price volatility.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Investors are advised to maintain some exposure to the energy sector, particularly by choosing energy giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron, whose global asset distribution and strong financial positions can help mitigate market fluctuations.
See More
Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Prices Higher
- Market Volatility Ahead: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices up, yet it is anticipated that Brent crude will fall back to around $60 per barrel by 2027, indicating that market fundamentals will soon dictate price movements.
- Strategic Reserve Crisis: The U.S. strategic oil reserve is nearing levels not seen since 1983, highlighting the pressure on global oil and gas supply chains and the urgent need to replenish reserves to meet future demand fluctuations.
- Changes Outside OPEC: The UAE's exit from OPEC has lifted production limits, coupled with increased U.S. exports, signaling fundamental shifts in the global energy market that could lead to greater oil and gas supply in the future, thereby impacting prices.
- Investment Strategy Shift: While investors should consider exposure to the energy sector, a conservative approach is advisable, with energy giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron being ideal choices due to their global asset distribution and robust financial health, making them well-suited to navigate market volatility.
See More
US Stocks Rise on US-Iran Peace Deal Optimism
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 rose 1.08%, the Dow Jones increased by 0.14%, and the Nasdaq 100 surged 2.48% as optimism over the US-Iran peace deal eased inflation risks, reflecting a positive market sentiment.
- Chip Sector Surge: Intel's stock jumped over 10% after President Trump announced a partnership with Apple to design and produce semiconductors domestically, leading the iShares Semiconductor ETF to rise more than 7%, indicating strong momentum in the tech sector.
- Energy Stocks Weaken: WTI crude oil prices fell to a 3.5-month low, causing significant declines in energy stocks, with SLB, ConocoPhillips, and Halliburton dropping over 3%, highlighting concerns over energy price volatility.
- Supportive Economic Data: Initial jobless claims fell to 226,000, close to the expected 225,000, indicating labor market strength, while the Philadelphia Fed business outlook index rose to 10.3, surpassing expectations, further boosting investor confidence.
See More
US-Iran Agreement to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
- Oil Price Fluctuations: While Iranian tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are falling due to market misconceptions about supply recovery, indicating that investor optimism regarding a quick return to normalcy may lead to increased price volatility in the future.
- Importance of Inventories: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to the use of global oil inventories as a buffer against supply disruptions, but rebuilding these inventories will take time, resulting in demand being higher than normal in the short term, which could affect price stability.
- Industry Warnings: Energy giants ExxonMobil and Chevron have warned that the current U.S. strategic oil reserves are at their lowest level since 1983, suggesting that the timeline for market normalization may be underestimated, with potential for rising oil prices ahead.
- Sustainability Risks of Agreement: Although the reopening agreement may lead to a short-term increase in oil flow, the high-risk nature of the Strait of Hormuz raises questions about the long-term viability of the deal, prompting investors to remain cautious and avoid premature optimism regarding market signals.
See More
Oil Market Recovery Faces Significant Challenges
- Price Volatility Warning: Oil prices have recently fallen due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, yet the CEOs of Chevron and ExxonMobil caution that prices do not reflect market fundamentals, indicating that recovery may take longer than anticipated.
- Need for Inventory Rebuilding: With the U.S. strategic oil reserves at their lowest since 1983, Chevron and ExxonMobil emphasize that rebuilding inventories is crucial for restoring supply-demand balance, likely extending the energy market recovery beyond current investor expectations.
- Increased Transportation Risks: While Iranian oil tankers are now moving through the Strait of Hormuz, this high-risk transportation will require time to assess the stability of the new agreement, potentially leading to exaggerated short-term market reactions to oil price fluctuations.
- Caution from Industry Giants: As two of the world's largest energy companies, Chevron and ExxonMobil's insights into market turbulence are invaluable, and investors should heed their warnings to make informed decisions in an uncertain market environment.
See More
US and Iran Reach Deal to End War and Reopen Strait of Hormuz
- Oil Price Volatility: Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, oil prices and global stocks have experienced significant volatility, resulting in widespread damage to Middle Eastern oil infrastructure and a shutdown of oil shipments through the vital Strait of Hormuz, impacting global energy supply.
- Energy ETF Performance: The Vanguard Energy ETF has delivered a 25% return year-to-date but has lost about 11% of its value since reaching an all-time high on March 27, indicating uncertainty in the future of energy stocks amid geopolitical tensions.
- Market Reaction: The S&P 500 index is up 10.4% year-to-date and has gained about 19% since hitting a 2026 low on March 30, but this may be bad news for energy stocks as the Vanguard Energy ETF and the S&P 500 have been moving in opposite directions since late March.
- Investment Advice: Although the Vanguard Energy ETF has achieved an average annual return of 21.1% over the past five years, the complex situation in the Middle East suggests that oil prices could plummet in the future, leading to a recommendation for long-term investors to be cautious and avoid heavy investments in oil stocks.
See More
