Trump Blames Iran for Rising Gas Prices Amid Conflict
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy XOM?
Source: seekingalpha
- Cause of Price Surge: In a prime-time address, Trump stated that U.S. gasoline prices have risen over 30% since the onset of the war, now exceeding $4 per gallon, attributing this spike to Iranian attacks on oil tankers and regional targets, highlighting the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets.
- Futures Market Reaction: At press time, gasoline futures rose by 5.9%, while crude oil futures increased by 6.2% to $106.3 per barrel, and Brent prices surged over 6.5% to $107.7 per barrel, indicating market concerns over potential supply disruptions due to the conflict.
- Wider Impact: The rising gasoline prices could affect retailers like BJ’s Wholesale Club, Costco, and Walmart, which rely on gasoline sales to drive store traffic, suggesting that fluctuations in oil prices could have broader implications for consumer markets and retail strategies.
- Future Outlook: Trump threatened to hit Iran 'extremely hard' even as the war nears its end, with potential resolution in 2-3 weeks, creating uncertainty that may lead to continued volatility in oil prices, impacting investor confidence and market stability.
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Analyst Views on XOM
Wall Street analysts forecast XOM stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 160.780
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
Current: 160.780
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
About XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation is an energy provider and chemical manufacturer. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas; the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a wide variety of specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and other new business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima systems, carbon materials, and lithium. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments manufacture and sell petroleum products and petrochemicals. Energy Products segment includes fuels, aromatics, and catalysts and licensing. Chemical Products segment consists of olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. Specialty Products segment includes finished lubricants, basestocks and waxes, synthetics, and elastomers and resins.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Surge in Oil Prices: Crude oil prices soared in March, with Brent rising 43% to nearly $104 per barrel due to U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, directly contributing to ExxonMobil's 11.3% stock price increase.
- Supply Constraints: Iran's attacks on energy infrastructure have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, which is expected to further elevate oil prices and enhance Exxon's profitability.
- Return to Venezuela: ExxonMobil expressed interest in returning to Venezuela under favorable investment terms, leveraging its improved technical expertise in heavy oil, which could significantly boost the company's long-term growth profile.
- LNG Project Milestone: Exxon and QatarEnergy completed the first LNG train at their Golden Pass project in Texas, with an initial capacity of 6 million tonnes per annum, set to ramp up to 18 million tonnes, coinciding with disruptions in Qatar's LNG operations due to the Iran conflict, making the project's timing critical.
See More
Trump's Hardline Stance on Iran War Intensifies
- Escalating Conflict: Trump's social media post threatens military action against Iran's power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday, provoking strong backlash from opposition leaders and civil society groups.
- Surging Oil Prices: The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed U.S. crude prices above $114 per barrel on Sunday, highlighting the significant impact of the regional conflict on global energy markets.
- Military Engagement: Iran continues to strike economic and infrastructure targets in neighboring Gulf Arab countries and shot down an American F-15E fighter jet over the weekend, with Trump confirming that the missing service member has been rescued, further escalating tensions.
- Federal Reserve Nomination: Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh is set for a Senate Banking Committee hearing on April 16, despite a separate criminal probe into the Fed, indicating a complex economic policy landscape under the Trump administration.
See More
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- Market Reaction: Japan's Nikkei 225 rose by 0.62% and South Korea's Kospi increased by 1.8%, indicating investor sensitivity to the Middle East situation, even as most Asian markets were closed for holidays.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: U.S. West Texas Intermediate prices increased by 2.57% to $114.11 per barrel, while the international benchmark Brent crude rose by 2.62%, reflecting market concerns about the Middle East conflict and its potential impact on global supply.
- Trump's Threats: President Trump issued threats to attack Iran's power plants and civilian infrastructure starting Tuesday if Tehran fails to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could escalate regional tensions.
- OPEC Production Increase: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies raised their production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, although this move appeared largely symbolic due to shipping constraints caused by the ongoing war.
See More
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- Oil Price Surge: U.S. crude oil prices rose 2.35% to $114.16 per barrel on Sunday, while international benchmark Brent prices increased 1.72% to $110.91 per barrel, reflecting strong market reactions to supply disruptions.
- Trump's Threat: President Trump threatened Iran via social media, demanding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday or face attacks on its power plants, which has heightened market uncertainty.
- Supply Disruption Impact: The closure of the Strait is expected to result in nearly 1 billion barrels of oil lost by the end of the month, including 600 million barrels of crude and 350 million barrels of refined products, marking the largest oil supply disruption in history.
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The eight members of OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in May, but uncertainties remain regarding how this oil will reach global markets while the Strait remains closed.
See More
Piper Sandler Warns Investors to Avoid These Stocks
- Market Performance Analysis: Piper Sandler highlights that while energy stocks have surged due to the war with Iran, with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) up 33% year-to-date, the S&P 500 Index has declined by 3.8%, indicating market uncertainty.
- Cushman & Wakefield Risks: Real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield has seen its stock drop 23% year-to-date, viewed as a potential victim of AI impacts, yet 7 out of 11 analysts rate it a strong buy or buy, with an average price target suggesting nearly 43% upside.
- Uber Investment Challenges: Uber is flagged as a potential underperformer; despite a $1.25 billion deal with Rivian to deploy 50,000 self-driving cars, its shares have fallen 12% in 2026, reflecting market concerns about its future performance.
- Aramark's Outlook: Despite risks, Aramark's stock is up 15% year-to-date, with JPMorgan listing it as a favorite, and analysts predict an average gain of over 10% based on consensus price targets, indicating strong market confidence.
See More
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- Production Increase Proposal: OPEC+ is expected to approve a theoretical production increase during its Sunday virtual meeting, although analysts warn this move is largely symbolic as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since late February, leaving key producers in operational paralysis.
- Supply Disruption Impact: The ongoing Iran conflict has removed an estimated 12 to 15 million barrels per day from the market, accounting for roughly 15% of global supply, marking the largest supply disruption in recorded history, even as crude prices soar to nearly $120 per barrel.
- Price Forecast Warning: JPMorgan cautioned that if the
See More
