TMC Stock Pullback Amid Market Volatility and Geopolitical Tensions
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 08 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TMC?
Source: Fool
- Stock Decline: TMC's share price fell by 25.5% in March, contrasting with a 5.1% decline in the S&P 500 and a 4.8% drop in the Nasdaq Composite, indicating a heightened risk-off sentiment among investors leading to reduced exposure to high-risk stocks.
- Geopolitical Impact: Following the U.S. and Israel's joint strikes on Iran on February 28, the market experienced significant bearish volatility; while TMC could benefit from rising geopolitical tensions in critical mineral sourcing, its stock remains highly volatile due to war-related developments.
- Permit Application Progress: On March 9, TMC announced that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicated substantial compliance with the guidelines for its joint application for an exploration license and commercial recovery permit, providing a bullish signal for the company's chances of receiving the necessary permits to begin exploratory missions and extract minerals from an area estimated to contain approximately 619 million metric tons of wet nodules.
- Financial Status: In its fourth-quarter results released on March 27, TMC reported a loss of $0.08 per share with no revenue, operational spending of $11.4 million, and cash and equivalents totaling $117.6 million at year-end; despite challenges, the company anticipates receiving a commercial recovery permit within a year and plans to commence system commissioning in Q4 2027.
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Analyst Views on TMC
Wall Street analysts forecast TMC stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 4.720
Low
6.50
Averages
8.33
High
11.00
Current: 4.720
Low
6.50
Averages
8.33
High
11.00
About TMC
TMC the metals company Inc. is a deep-sea minerals exploration company. The Company is focused on the collection and processing of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in international waters of the Clarion Clipperton Zone in the Pacific Ocean (CCZ), located approximately 1,300 nautical miles southwest of San Diego, California. The CCZ is a geological submarine fracture zone of abyssal plains and other formations in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, with a length of around 4,500 miles that spans approximately 1,737,000 square miles. These nodules contain high grades of four metals (nickel, copper, cobalt, manganese) which can be used as feedstock for battery cathode precursors (nickel, cobalt and manganese sulfates, or intermediate nickel-copper-cobalt matte) for electric vehicles (EV) and energy storage markets; copper cathode for EV wiring, energy transmission and other applications, and manganese silicate for manganese alloy production required for steel production.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Future Outlook: TMC is expected to secure the necessary commercial recovery permit within the next 12 months, potentially transforming it from a speculative venture into a metal company with a defined revenue path, which could significantly enhance its market value.
- Technological Progress: TMC has demonstrated the effectiveness of its nodule collection technology and is advancing a potential processing hub in Brownsville, Texas, indicating the company is laying the groundwork for commercial production, although the market remains cautious about its high valuation of approximately 25 times book value.
See More
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- Regulatory Progress Optimism: TMC could secure the necessary commercial recovery permit within the next 12 months, transforming it from a speculative idea into a metal company with a defined revenue path, significantly enhancing its market position.
- Technical Readiness: TMC has demonstrated the effectiveness of its nodule collection technology, equipped on its vessel
See More
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- International Cooperation: The agreement between the U.S. and Japan to collaborate on deep-sea mining is a positive development; however, it does not alleviate the near-term challenges TMC faces, indicating significant hurdles remain.
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See More
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- Technological Innovation: The facility will utilize a proprietary AI-driven control system to improve metal production purity and efficiency, aiming for initial operations in early 2027, with annual output projected to reach 400 tonnes and scale up to 600 tonnes by 2028-29, thereby strengthening the stability of the U.S. defense supply chain.
- Policy Impact: Starting January 1, 2027, the U.S. Department of Defense will ban the use of Chinese-origin rare earth materials, and REalloys' facility will provide compliant rare earth metals for defense customers, ensuring material supply for U.S. weapon systems, which holds significant strategic importance.
- Market Outlook: With increasing global demand for rare earths, REalloys' facility is poised to not only meet domestic needs but also potentially capture a share of the international market, enhancing the competitiveness of the U.S. in the rare earth supply chain.
See More
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- Market Growth Potential: The global rare earth elements market was valued at approximately $3.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $6.28 billion by 2030, implying a solid ~8.6% CAGR, highlighting the industry's strategic importance in electric vehicles and clean energy.
- Geopolitical Impact: With China accounting for roughly 60% of global rare earth production and processing, the U.S. and its allies are aggressively investing in domestic supply chains, creating a multi-year investment cycle that transforms the rare earth sector into a policy-driven growth market.
- SAGA Acquisition Project: SAGA Metals Corp. has signed an agreement to acquire the Wolverine heavy rare earth project in Labrador, which shows mineralization potential similar to Strange Lake and Tanbreez, expected to enhance the company's strategic position in North American supply security and defense priorities.
- Mineralization Potential Confirmation: The 2025 reverse circulation drilling confirmed rare earth mineralization across a 1.7 km × 1.2 km area, with key intercepts showing grades up to 2.03% TREO, indicating significant resource definition potential that supports future drilling and development plans.
See More
TMC's Deep-Sea Mining Prospects Analysis
- Strategic Mineral Value: TMC focuses on harvesting polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, which are crucial for the U.S.; despite strong demand, supply remains weak, highlighting TMC's potential importance in the U.S. supply chain.
- Regulatory Hurdles: Although TMC possesses billions of dollars worth of nodules, it cannot legally harvest them due to a lack of a commercial recovery permit, with the current regulatory impasse limiting its commercialization process and affecting investor confidence.
- Future Outlook: TMC is expected to secure the necessary commercial recovery permit within the next 12 months, potentially transforming it from a speculative venture into a metal company with a defined revenue path, which could significantly enhance its market value.
- Technological Progress: TMC has demonstrated the effectiveness of its nodule collection technology and is advancing a potential processing hub in Brownsville, Texas, indicating the company is laying the groundwork for commercial production, although the market remains cautious about its high valuation of approximately 25 times book value.
See More
TMC The Metals Company Advances in Deep-Sea Mining
- Commercial Permit Progress: TMC is expediting its application for a commercial mining permit, expected to be granted within the next 12 months, which would transform it from a speculative venture into a metal company with a clear revenue path, significantly boosting market confidence.
- Mineral Value Potential: TMC's polymetallic nodule reserves are estimated to be worth billions, with its current stock price at $4.50, approximately 8.5% of its net present value, indicating substantial upside potential if mining operations succeed, attracting investor interest.
- Technology and Infrastructure Development: The company has demonstrated the effectiveness of its nodule collection technology and equipped the vessel
See More
TMC The Metals Company Faces Regulatory Bottleneck
- Mineral Resource Potential: TMC possesses polymetallic nodules worth billions, rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, all critical to the U.S., yet the lack of a commercial recovery permit hinders its ability to legally harvest these resources, limiting market potential.
- Regulatory Progress Optimism: TMC could secure the necessary commercial recovery permit within the next 12 months, transforming it from a speculative idea into a metal company with a defined revenue path, significantly enhancing its market position.
- Technical Readiness: TMC has demonstrated the effectiveness of its nodule collection technology, equipped on its vessel
See More
Deep-Sea Mining Start-Up Faces Challenges
- Application Progress: TMC's deep-sea mining application received substantial compliance from NOAA, indicating no revisions are needed, yet this does not guarantee final approval, highlighting ongoing regulatory challenges for the company.
- International Cooperation: The agreement between the U.S. and Japan to collaborate on deep-sea mining is a positive development; however, it does not alleviate the near-term challenges TMC faces, indicating significant hurdles remain.
- Financial Status: TMC is currently operating at a loss with no revenue generation, as all expenses are investments towards future deep-sea mining operations, underscoring the high-risk nature of its business model.
- Stock Price Volatility: Despite a 150% increase in stock price over the past year, it has fallen over 50% from its 52-week high, suggesting that market sentiment and news flow significantly impact the stock, necessitating cautious investment strategies.
See More
