The Oil Crisis Is Here to Last. Energy Executives Prepare for Impact.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 27 2026
0mins
Should l Buy XOM?
Source: Barron's
Current State of the Energy Industry: The energy industry is facing challenges in returning to its pre-Iran War conditions, indicating a prolonged period of instability.
High Oil Prices: Oil prices are expected to remain elevated, potentially lasting until 2027, impacting global markets and economies.
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Analyst Views on XOM
Wall Street analysts forecast XOM stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 154.330
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
Current: 154.330
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
About XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation is an energy provider and chemical manufacturer. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas; the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a wide variety of specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and other new business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima systems, carbon materials, and lithium. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments manufacture and sell petroleum products and petrochemicals. Energy Products segment includes fuels, aromatics, and catalysts and licensing. Chemical Products segment consists of olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. Specialty Products segment includes finished lubricants, basestocks and waxes, synthetics, and elastomers and resins.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Oil Price Volatility: Brent crude surged from $60 per barrel to over $100 during Q1, benefiting oil producers; however, Exxon's earnings per share fell short of last year's $7.7 billion, highlighting market uncertainties.
- Strategic Execution Results: Despite supply chain challenges, Exxon's transformational strategy since 2018 has driven advantaged volume growth, contributing $840 million to profits in Q1, demonstrating success in low-cost, high-margin asset management.
- Future Outlook: The company anticipates $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth by 2030, indicating that despite current challenges, its long-term strategy will continue to create shareholder value and maintain competitiveness across market cycles.
See More
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- Refining Capacity Increase: Refinery throughput increased by approximately 200,000 barrels per day in March compared to February, demonstrating the company's success in optimizing logistics and enhancing its competitiveness in a high-margin refining environment.
- Enhanced LNG Export Capacity: The Golden Pass project achieved its first LNG production in March, expected to increase U.S. export capacity by about 5%, which will help meet the growing global energy demand and elevate the company's position in international markets.
- Investment in Low Carbon Solutions: The company plans to start facilities capable of capturing an additional 4 million tonnes of CO2 per year over the next two years, showcasing its commitment to sustainability while laying the groundwork for future compliance with environmental regulations.
See More
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- Earnings Report: ExxonMobil reported Q1 revenue of USD 85.138 million, exceeding the Ibes estimate of USD 82.180 million.
- Financial Performance: The revenue figures indicate a stronger performance than analysts had anticipated, reflecting positive trends in the company's operations.
See More
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- Earnings Report: ExxonMobil reported its Q1 earnings, showcasing significant financial performance.
- Market Impact: The results have implications for the energy market and investor sentiment.
See More
Exxon Mobil to Release Q1 Earnings on May 1
- Earnings Release Date: Exxon Mobil is set to release its Q1 earnings on May 1, with the market anticipating that the financial results will provide crucial performance guidance for investors.
- EPS Expectations: Analysts estimate the company’s Q1 earnings per share (EPS) to be $1.01, reflecting the company's profitability amid fluctuations in the oil and gas market.
- Revenue Projections: The expected revenue for Exxon Mobil in Q1 is $85.29 billion, indicating strong performance against the backdrop of recovering global energy demand.
- Mixed Analyst Ratings: Despite the upcoming earnings report, analysts have mixed ratings on the company, highlighting market uncertainties regarding future oil prices and operational strategies.
See More
Iran War Drives Oil Prices Up, ExxonMobil's Q1 Earnings Decline
- Surging Oil Prices: The war with Iran caused Brent crude prices to soar from $60 to over $100 per barrel in Q1, highlighting market volatility, even as ExxonMobil's earnings faced a downturn, indicating underlying operational challenges.
- Earnings Decline: ExxonMobil reported adjusted earnings of $4.9 billion, or $1.16 per share, down from $7.3 billion last year and $7.7 billion in the previous quarter, despite exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.98, reflecting the impact of supply disruptions.
- Impact of Supply Disruptions: Operations in Qatar and the UAE suffered lower volumes due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and Iranian attacks, while winter storm disruptions in Kazakhstan and the U.S. reduced global production to an average of 4.6 million BOE/d, down from nearly 5 million BOE/d.
- Ongoing Strategic Execution: Despite challenges, Exxon's transformational strategy since 2018 continues to deliver, with advantaged volume growth adding $840 million to Q1 results, and the company expects $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth by 2030, showcasing its long-term growth potential.
See More
ExxonMobil's First Quarter Earnings Analysis
- Supply Disruption Impact: Exxon's operations in Qatar and the UAE faced lower volumes due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure, resulting in adjusted earnings of $4.9 billion for Q1, a significant drop from $7.3 billion in the previous quarter despite rising oil prices.
- Oil Price Volatility: Brent crude surged from $60 per barrel to over $100 during Q1, benefiting oil producers; however, Exxon's earnings per share fell short of last year's $7.7 billion, highlighting market uncertainties.
- Strategic Execution Results: Despite supply chain challenges, Exxon's transformational strategy since 2018 has driven advantaged volume growth, contributing $840 million to profits in Q1, demonstrating success in low-cost, high-margin asset management.
- Future Outlook: The company anticipates $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth by 2030, indicating that despite current challenges, its long-term strategy will continue to create shareholder value and maintain competitiveness across market cycles.
See More
Exxon Mobil's Production and Investment Updates
- Production Growth: Exxon Mobil achieved record production levels in Guyana while targeting 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels in the Permian Basin, indicating strong performance in the global oil and gas market and expected market share growth.
- Refining Capacity Increase: Refinery throughput increased by approximately 200,000 barrels per day in March compared to February, demonstrating the company's success in optimizing logistics and enhancing its competitiveness in a high-margin refining environment.
- Enhanced LNG Export Capacity: The Golden Pass project achieved its first LNG production in March, expected to increase U.S. export capacity by about 5%, which will help meet the growing global energy demand and elevate the company's position in international markets.
- Investment in Low Carbon Solutions: The company plans to start facilities capable of capturing an additional 4 million tonnes of CO2 per year over the next two years, showcasing its commitment to sustainability while laying the groundwork for future compliance with environmental regulations.
See More
