Tesla's EV Delivery Decline Pressures Stock Price
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 09 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TSLA?
Source: Fool
- Disappointing Delivery Numbers: Tesla delivered 358,023 EVs in Q1 2026, a 6% increase year-over-year but significantly below Wall Street's estimate of 370,000, resulting in a more than 5% stock drop on April 2 and continued declines in subsequent sessions.
- Ongoing Sales Decline: The company delivered 1.79 million EVs in 2024, down 1% from the previous year, and further declined by 9% to 1.63 million in 2025, leading to a 10% drop in automotive revenue and a 47% plunge in earnings per share (EPS), highlighting severe financial challenges.
- Intensifying Competition: Tesla's market leadership in Europe is threatened by Chinese low-cost manufacturer BYD, which sold 17,954 EVs in February, surpassing Tesla's 17,664, indicating pressure on Tesla's market share.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Although Tesla plans to launch the Cybercab and Optimus robot to create new revenue streams, strict government regulations and production timelines make it unlikely to offset declining EV sales in the short term, potentially leading to further stock price pressure.
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to rise
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 391.950
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 391.950
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Analyst Rating Adjustments: TD Cowen lowered Tesla's price target to $490 per share while maintaining a buy rating, expressing caution about the upcoming earnings report, as the delivery miss could affect market expectations.
- Capital Expenditure Concerns: Barclays analysts worry about Tesla's new 'Terafab' chip venture, estimating costs could rise into the trillions, potentially eroding cash flow and impacting profitability, posing challenges for the company's future growth.
- Sales Growth Expectations: Despite delivery challenges, analysts expect Tesla to achieve a 17% sales growth this quarter, with revenues exceeding $22.6 billion and projected earnings per share of $0.38, representing a 41% increase from last year, providing hope for the company's future.
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- New Model Exploration: Tesla is reportedly exploring the development of a new SUV priced below the Model Y, which, if realized, could open the door to the mass market and significantly boost sales and market share.
- Stock Volatility: Despite Tesla's stock being down 19% year-to-date, investor anticipation is building ahead of the upcoming earnings report, particularly regarding the potential for a European-led recovery in electric vehicle demand.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: With competitors like BYD gaining market share in Europe, Tesla's plan to introduce a budget-friendly SUV could be a crucial factor in maintaining its competitive edge and solidifying its leadership position in the electric vehicle industry.
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- Increased Trading Activity: As indices rise, market trading activity has noticeably increased, suggesting a positive response from investors to the current market environment, potentially signaling broader investment trends.
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- Delivery Miss: Tesla produced 408,000 EVs in Q1 but sold only 358,000, missing its delivery target, which may negatively impact investor confidence and lead to stock price volatility.
- Analyst Rating Adjustments: TD Cowen lowered Tesla's price target to $490 per share while maintaining a buy rating, expressing caution about the upcoming earnings report, as the delivery miss could affect market expectations.
- Capital Expenditure Concerns: Barclays analysts worry about Tesla's new 'Terafab' chip venture, estimating costs could rise into the trillions, potentially eroding cash flow and impacting profitability, posing challenges for the company's future growth.
- Sales Growth Expectations: Despite delivery challenges, analysts expect Tesla to achieve a 17% sales growth this quarter, with revenues exceeding $22.6 billion and projected earnings per share of $0.38, representing a 41% increase from last year, providing hope for the company's future.
See More
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- European Market Recovery: Tesla's registrations surged in March, with a 160% year-over-year increase in Germany and an astounding 203% in France, indicating a strong recovery in the electric vehicle market that could support a rebound in Tesla's stock price.
- New Model Exploration: Tesla is reportedly exploring the development of a new SUV priced below the Model Y, which, if realized, could open the door to the mass market and significantly boost sales and market share.
- Stock Volatility: Despite Tesla's stock being down 19% year-to-date, investor anticipation is building ahead of the upcoming earnings report, particularly regarding the potential for a European-led recovery in electric vehicle demand.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: With competitors like BYD gaining market share in Europe, Tesla's plan to introduce a budget-friendly SUV could be a crucial factor in maintaining its competitive edge and solidifying its leadership position in the electric vehicle industry.
See More
US Major Indices Rise in Late Morning Trading on Thursday
- Market Recovery: In late morning trading on Thursday, all three major US stock indices showed gains, reflecting investor optimism about market prospects, although specific gains were not disclosed.
- Improved Investor Sentiment: Influenced by economic data and corporate earnings, investor confidence has rebounded, driving the stock market higher and indicating expectations for future economic growth.
- Increased Trading Activity: As indices rise, market trading activity has noticeably increased, suggesting a positive response from investors to the current market environment, potentially signaling broader investment trends.
- Economic Data Impact: While specific data was not provided, heightened attention to upcoming economic indicators and corporate earnings reports may further influence index movements.
See More
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- Record Profits for TSMC: TSMC reported a 58% year-over-year profit increase in Q1, reaching a new high, indicating robust demand for AI chips; however, its stock fell about 2%, reflecting market caution regarding future expectations.
- Rising Revenue from High-Performance Computing: The high-performance computing segment accounted for 61% of TSMC's total revenue in Q1, up from 55% in the previous quarter, highlighting the company's strengthened position in the AI market, despite an 11% decline in smartphone revenue.
- ASML Delivery Expectations: ASML anticipates delivering 80 low numerical aperture EUV machines in 2027, a figure that fell short of market expectations for 90 units, leading to a 3% drop in stock price following the earnings report.
- Increased Capital Expenditure Plans: TSMC expects capital expenditures to reach $52-$56 billion in 2026, significantly up from $40.5 billion in 2025, demonstrating the company's commitment to expanding advanced chip manufacturing capacity, although the market remains cautious about achieving its targeted 30% annual growth.
See More
TSMC and ASML Report Strong Earnings but Stocks Decline
- Strong TSMC Performance: TSMC reported a 58% year-over-year profit increase in Q1, reaching a record level driven by robust demand for AI chips, yet its stock fell about 2%, indicating market concerns over high expectations.
- Revenue Structure Shift: The high-performance computing segment accounted for 61% of TSMC's overall revenue in Q1, up from 55% in the previous quarter, despite an 11% decline in smartphone revenue, highlighting market demand diversity and challenges.
- Cautious ASML Outlook: ASML raised its forward guidance and reported strong Q1 results, but its stock declined due to concerns over shrinking sales to China, reflecting investor caution regarding future growth prospects.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: TSMC expects capital expenditures to reach $52-$56 billion in 2026, significantly up from $40.5 billion in 2025, indicating the company's commitment to expanding advanced chip manufacturing capabilities, but also raising concerns about its ability to scale capacity quickly.
See More
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- Registration Insights: According to S&P Global Mobility, Tesla's Cybertruck registered 7,071 units in Q4 2023, with SpaceX accounting for 1,279 units, indicating significant support from Musk's companies; without these sales, registrations would have plummeted by 51%.
- Demand Trends: Although the Cybertruck experienced strong demand upon its late November 2023 launch, interest has notably cooled in 2024 and 2025, reflecting a waning market enthusiasm that could impact Tesla's long-term sales strategy.
- Stock Fluctuations: Tesla's shares fell 1.7% in morning trading on Thursday after rising over 12% in the previous week, indicating investor concerns regarding the Cybertruck's sales outlook, which may affect overall market confidence.
- Earnings Outlook: Tesla is set to report its first-quarter earnings on April 22 after market close, with significant attention expected on Musk's discussions regarding AI and autonomy during the earnings call, which could have a substantial impact on stock performance.
See More
