Supreme Court Rules Trump Tariffs Illegal, Potential $175 Billion Refunds Loom
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 9 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy WMT?
Source: CNBC
- Supreme Court Ruling: The U.S. Supreme Court's 6-3 decision declaring Trump's unilateral tariffs illegal could obligate the government to refund over $175 billion to importers, impacting a wide range of businesses and highlighting significant legal flaws in Trump's policies.
- Refund Estimates: The $175 billion refund estimate from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model is based on tariffs collected since their imposition, reflecting the potential fiscal implications of Trump's tariff policies on the federal budget.
- Legal Challenges: Multiple importers have initiated lawsuits seeking refunds, citing lower court rulings that deemed Trump's tariffs illegal, which may lead to substantial legal challenges and refund requests for the government, increasing policy uncertainty.
- Economic Impact: Economists estimate that the illegal IEEPA-related tariffs constitute about 60% of all tariffs imposed to date, indicating a significant drop in tariff rates from 9.5% to 5%, which could have profound effects on U.S. trade and consumer prices, potentially generating uncertainty in future trade agreements.
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Analyst Views on WMT
Wall Street analysts forecast WMT stock price to rise
26 Analyst Rating
25 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 124.870
Low
119.00
Averages
125.75
High
136.00
Current: 124.870
Low
119.00
Averages
125.75
High
136.00
About WMT
Walmart Inc. is a technology-powered omnichannel retailer. The Company is engaged in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, as well as eCommerce Websites and mobile applications, located throughout the United States (U.S.), Africa, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India and Mexico. It operates in three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International and Sam's Club U.S. The Walmart U.S. segment includes the Company's mass merchandising concept in the U.S., as well as eCommerce, which includes omni-channel initiatives and certain other business offerings such as advertising services. The Walmart International segment consists of the Company's operations outside of the U.S. through its subsidiaries, as well as eCommerce and omni-channel initiatives. The Sam's Club U.S. segment includes the warehouse membership clubs in the U.S., as well as samsclub.com and omni-channel initiatives.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Earnings Beat: Walmart reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 74 cents, surpassing the market expectation of 73 cents, demonstrating the company's robust performance in the retail sector and reinforcing its market leadership.
- Strong Sales Growth: The company achieved sales of $190.70 billion, a 5.6% year-over-year increase, with a 4.9% rise in constant currency, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $190.43 billion, reflecting Walmart's success in diversifying its business.
- Bullish Analyst Ratings: Telsey Advisory Group's analyst Joseph Feldman raised Walmart's price target from $135 to $140, citing the company's higher-margin new businesses in advertising, merchant services, and last-mile delivery, which could accelerate operating income growth.
- Positive Future Outlook: DA Davidson's analyst Michael Baker expects Walmart to continue exceeding sales growth targets in 2026, emphasizing that investments in automation, AI, and alternative businesses will yield new profit growth, further enhancing its competitive position in the market.
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- Market Recovery: The S&P 500 rose by 0.69% and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.87% after the Supreme Court overturned Trump's global tariffs, indicating a positive investor response to the policy shift that alleviates trade tensions.
- Economic Data Impact: U.S. Q4 GDP grew by 1.4%, below the expected 2.8%, while the core PCE price index rose by 2.7%, exceeding expectations of 2.6%, suggesting inflation pressures may limit the Fed's ability to cut rates, affecting market sentiment.
- Manufacturing Activity Decline: The February S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 51.2, below the anticipated 52.4, indicating weakness in manufacturing that could challenge economic recovery and further exacerbate market uncertainty.
- Earnings Optimism: Over 74% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings that beat expectations, with Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, demonstrating strong corporate profitability that may support the stock market despite macroeconomic challenges.
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- Hiring Recession Impact: Walmart CFO John David Rainey highlights a cautious FY2027 outlook due to a hiring recession, rising student loan delinquencies, and trade uncertainty, indicating a challenging economic environment ahead.
- High-Income Households Drive Growth: Despite beating revenue and EPS expectations, Walmart's market share gains are primarily from households earning over $100,000, while those below $50,000 are struggling to manage spending, revealing a fragile consumer spending landscape.
- GDP Growth Slowdown: The Commerce Department confirmed that Q4 2025 GDP growth was only 1.4% annualized, significantly below the 2.9% expected by Wall Street and a sharp decline from Q3's 4.4%, reflecting overall economic weakness.
- Rising Recession Expectations: Polymarket traders are pricing a 23% chance of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026, although optimism remains for Q1 2026 growth, indicating a divergence in market sentiment regarding future economic conditions.
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- Market Recovery: The S&P 500 index rose by 0.58%, reaching a one-week high, primarily driven by the Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's global tariffs, which is expected to boost economic growth and improve market sentiment.
- Weak Economic Data: The US Q4 GDP grew at an annualized rate of only 1.4%, significantly below the expected 2.8%, indicating fragility in the economic recovery and potentially leading the Fed to adopt a more cautious approach in future rate decisions.
- Rising Inflation Pressures: The December core PCE price index increased by 3.0% year-over-year, surpassing expectations of 2.9%, which may impact the Fed's monetary policy and limit its ability to cut rates, thereby affecting market liquidity.
- Positive Earnings Outlook: Over 74% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings that exceeded expectations, with Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, providing support for the market and demonstrating corporate resilience amid economic uncertainties.
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- Tariff Policy Change: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump's global tariffs exceeded presidential authority, striking down certain tariffs and providing retailers with greater flexibility and innovation space, thereby reducing import costs and promoting economic growth.
- Economic Recovery Outlook: The National Retail Federation stated that this ruling will provide necessary certainty for U.S. businesses and manufacturers, expected to drive job opportunities and household income growth, enhancing consumer confidence.
- Call for Tariff Refunds: The NRF urged the lower court to ensure a seamless refund process for tariffs already paid by importers, which would provide economic support for companies to reinvest in operations and employees, further stimulating market vitality.
- Positive Industry Response: Footwear industry representatives noted that removing tariffs would allow the sector to redirect billions toward innovation and job creation, alleviating cost pressures and fostering ongoing collaboration with policymakers to ensure trade policies adapt to the global marketplace.
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- Tariff Ruling Impact: The Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling invalidates Trump's tariff policies, stating he lacked authority under the International Economic Powers Act, resulting in Amazon's stock rising over 1% and Etsy climbing 5%.
- E-Commerce Market Rebound: Following the ruling, shares of Shopify, Wayfair, and eBay surged over 3%, while Pinduoduo's parent company also saw a 3% increase, indicating renewed market confidence in the e-commerce sector.
- Small Business Pressure: Trump's tariffs had severely disrupted e-commerce platforms, forcing many small businesses to raise prices or lay off staff; Etsy's annual report highlighted a pullback in consumer spending, leading to pessimistic sales forecasts.
- Industry Outlook Uncertainty: Despite the ruling providing some market confidence, both Etsy and Amazon express concerns over future tariff policy changes, particularly regarding their impact on consumer demand and discretionary spending, leaving the industry facing significant uncertainty.
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