Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Stock After Its Recent Rally?
Stock Performance: UnitedHealth Group's stock (UNH) is down 40% year-to-date but has increased over 20% this month due to investments from Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway and other hedge fund managers.
Value Investing Insight: Buffett's investment in UNH reflects a classic value investing strategy, seeing potential long-term value despite the company's current challenges, including a DOJ investigation and high medical costs.
Earnings Projections: The company has revised its fiscal 2025 EPS guidance downward significantly, with FY26 EPS estimates also dropping nearly 30%, raising concerns among investors about future profitability.
Investment Alternatives: Analysts suggest that for those wary of UNH's volatility, investing in the iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF (IHF) may provide a safer exposure to the healthcare sector.
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- Questionable Timing: Congressman John McGuire's rapid buying and selling of Microsoft stock within just 10 days raises concerns about the unusual nature of his trading activities, particularly given his role on the Armed Services Committee, which may present potential conflicts of interest.
- Disclosure Details: The trades were executed by McGuire's spouse through an IRA, with a maximum disclosed trade size of $15,000, suggesting he may not have been directly involved in the transactions, which raises questions about transparency.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Microsoft shares traded between $438.68 and $452.69 at purchase and fell to $426.45 to $439.60 at sale, indicating a potential loss of 5.8%, highlighting the risks associated with his investment decisions.
- Historical Trading Context: Since joining Congress in 2025, McGuire has had minimal trading activity, with previous trades also drawing scrutiny regarding potential conflicts of interest in the healthcare sector, intensifying public scrutiny of his trading behavior.
- Price Range Analysis: VONE's stock has a 52-week low of $218.75 and a high of $316.38, with the last trade at $314.58, indicating that the stock is nearing its high point, which may attract investor interest.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the current stock price to the 200-day moving average can provide valuable insights for investors, helping to assess market trends and optimal buying or selling opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade similarly to stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on investor demand, impacting the underlying holdings of the ETF.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding for ETFs helps identify significant inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), which can affect the performance of individual stocks held within the ETFs.
- UnitedHealth Membership Loss: The company anticipates losing up to 2.8 million members due to rising medical costs, resulting in a 20% drop in stock price following its Q4 earnings release, reflecting market concerns over profitability.
- Ryman's Performance Decline: Ryman Hospitality Properties reported a 15.5% drop in adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per unit in Q3, primarily due to planned renovations and an increase in short-term cancellations, although bookings are up nearly 8% this year.
- ONEOK's Significant Earnings Growth: ONEOK's adjusted EBITDA surged 37% year-over-year to $2.1 billion in Q3, driven by contributions from EnLink and Medallion assets, showcasing its enhanced integration capabilities.
- Dividend Safety Analysis: Despite ongoing uncertainties, UnitedHealth's 3.2% dividend remains secure, with last year's free cash flow reaching $16 billion, nearly double the dividend payout, indicating strong financial health.
- Dividend Yield Basics: The dividend yield is calculated by dividing the annual dividend by the current stock price; for instance, Scruffy's Chicken Shack pays $1 quarterly, resulting in a 5% yield at an $80 share price, highlighting the need for caution when selecting high-yield stocks as falling prices can inflate yields.
- Attractiveness of Verizon: Verizon Communications boasts a recent dividend yield of 6.01%, and despite its slow growth, its $200 billion market cap and strong customer base make it a solid blue-chip investment, indicating stable cash flow and market position.
- Stability of Chevron: With a dividend yield of 3.97%, Chevron is a well-regarded energy company with nearly 40 years of annual dividend increases and a healthy balance sheet, making it a low-risk investment option with a market cap of $367 billion.
- Risks of UnitedHealth: UnitedHealth Group's dividend yield stands at 3.44%, but with nearly a 50% drop in stock price over the past year and regulatory challenges threatening profitability, investors should exercise caution despite its $247 billion market cap and potential for recovery.
- Legislative Support: Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban publicly endorses the 'Break Up Big Medicine Act,' introduced by Senators Hawley and Warren, which aims to force the separation of insurers, pharmacy benefit managers, and healthcare providers to lower healthcare costs in the U.S.
- Public Demand: Cuban describes the bill as a 'no brainer' on social media, urging President Trump to support the legislation, emphasizing that any Congress member opposing it does not want lower healthcare costs for Americans, reflecting strong public demand for healthcare reform.
- Antitrust Measures: Modeled after the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act, the bill seeks to prohibit common ownership among insurance companies, PBMs, and medical providers, aiming to combat monopolistic practices by 'Big Medicine' and protect the interests of working Americans.
- Enforcement and Impact: The bill empowers the FTC and DOJ to enforce these separations, with penalties including profit disgorgement for non-compliance, and proponents argue that it will eliminate self-dealing that currently inflates medical loss ratios and consumer premiums.
- Earnings Report: Humana is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday.
- Industry Challenges: The insurer and its competitors are facing challenges due to proposed Medicare Advantage payment rates, which previously led to a market selloff.








