Seasonal Stock Market Trends and Investment Strategies
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy AMZN?
Source: CNBC
- Historical Performance Analysis: According to CFRA data, the S&P 500 has averaged only a 2% gain from April 30 to October 31 since 1945, while it averages nearly 7% from October 31 to April 30, indicating typically weaker summer performance.
- Recent Trend Observations: Despite historical data suggesting poor performance from May to October, the S&P 500 has averaged returns of 1.5% in May and 1.9% in June over the past decade, indicating that investors may have missed significant upward movements.
- Political Factors Impact: During Trump's presidency, the S&P 500 has typically formed a spring bottom from late March to early April before staging significant advances into year-end, and current market trends closely align with this pattern, potentially encouraging investors to remain invested.
- Market Rebound Signs: The S&P 500 has rallied back above 7,100, and is expected to rise further following strong quarterly reports from Alphabet and Amazon, indicating improving market sentiment and optimism among investors regarding future performance.
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Analyst Views on AMZN
Wall Street analysts forecast AMZN stock price to rise
44 Analyst Rating
41 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 265.060
Low
175.00
Averages
280.01
High
325.00
Current: 265.060
Low
175.00
Averages
280.01
High
325.00
About AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc. provides a range of products and services to customers. The products offered through its stores include merchandise and content it has purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. The Company’s segments include North America, International and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It serves consumers through its online and physical stores and focuses on selection, price, and convenience. Customers access its offerings through its websites, mobile apps, Alexa, devices, streaming, and physically visiting its stores. It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablet, Fire TV, Echo, Ring, Blink, and eero, and develops and produces media content. It serves developers and enterprises of all sizes, including start-ups, government agencies, and academic institutions, through AWS, which offers a set of on-demand technology services, including compute, storage, database, analytics, and machine learning, and other services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Amazon's Stock Performance: Amazon's shares have reached record highs following positive quarterly reports.
- Cloud Sales Growth: The company's cloud sales growth has exceeded estimates, increasing by more than 2%.
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- Market Expectation Analysis: According to Kalshi data, traders are pricing in a high likelihood of discussions centered on tariffs and artificial intelligence, with a 96% probability for tariff mentions, indicating strong market focus on this issue.
- Investor Focus: Wall Street anticipates Amazon will report earnings per share of $1.65 on revenues of $177.16 billion, with particular attention on the cloud segment to assess whether the company's heavy AI investments are yielding substantial returns.
- Diverse Themes: Beyond tariffs and AI, traders show significant interest in topics like “live sports,” “Alexa+,” and “robotics,” with probabilities of 95% and 93%, reflecting market expectations for Amazon's diversified business interests.
See More
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- Escalating Security Concerns: The White House has objected to Anthropic's plan to expand access to its frontier AI model, Mythos, citing fears that broader release could lead to security vulnerabilities, impacting the computing capabilities of several U.S. agencies.
- Partner Expansion Plans: Initially, Anthropic provided Mythos access to about 40 partners, including Microsoft and Google, but is now considering allowing access to an additional 70 organizations, which would significantly enhance its market influence.
- Legal Dispute Context: Despite tensions with the Department of Defense, Anthropic is moving forward with its IPO and is contemplating a new funding round that could push its valuation beyond $900 billion, indicating strong growth potential in the AI sector.
- Market Competition Dynamics: Anthropic's valuation skyrocketed from $61.5 billion just 13 months ago, reflecting the rapid advancements in AI technology and its critical importance in the finance and tech industries, potentially attracting more competitors' attention.
See More
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- Strong Earnings Performance: Over 178 companies reported earnings this week, with 147 exceeding EPS expectations and 139 achieving year-over-year earnings growth, indicating resilience and profitability amid economic fluctuations.
- Tech Giants Lead the Way: Major companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN) reported revenues and EPS that surpassed expectations, reflecting sustained strong growth in the tech sector and bolstering market confidence.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Next week, approximately 120 companies are set to report earnings, covering consumer and healthcare sectors, with a keen focus on these reports to assess the health of the American consumer and economy, particularly from key players like CVS Health and Pfizer.
- Shareholder Buyback Plans: Visa (V) announced a new $20 billion stock buyback program, with expectations for low single-digit EPS growth in FY2026, demonstrating the company's confidence in future growth and commitment to shareholders.
See More
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- Cloud Business Growth: Amazon's cloud service AWS achieved a 28% revenue growth in Q1, making it the fastest-growing segment among Amazon's businesses, indicating strong market performance and future potential.
- Profitability Highlight: Although AWS accounts for only 21% of Amazon's total sales, it generated $14.6 billion in operating income, representing 59% of Amazon's total operating income, underscoring its significance in profitability.
- Surge in AI Chip Demand: Demand for AWS's custom AI chips is growing at a triple-digit year-over-year rate, with leading AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic utilizing Amazon's Trainium chips, further solidifying AWS's competitive position in the AI space.
- Long-term Investment Outlook: Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures by 2026, which will provide sustained high-margin computing capacity, ensuring its long-term competitiveness and profitability in the AI market.
See More
AWS Drives Amazon's Best Growth Quarter Since 2021
- AWS Revenue Growth: Amazon's cloud computing service, AWS, achieved a 28% revenue growth in Q1, making it the fastest-growing segment among all Amazon's businesses, indicating strong market performance and future potential.
- Operating Income Contribution: Although AWS accounted for only 21% of Amazon's total sales, it generated $14.6 billion in operating income, representing 59% of Amazon's total operating income, highlighting its critical role in the company's overall profitability.
- Surge in AI Chip Demand: Demand for AWS's custom AI chips is growing at a triple-digit year-over-year rate, with leading AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic utilizing Amazon's Trainium chips, showcasing AWS's strengthening competitiveness in the AI sector.
- Long-term Investment Outlook: Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures by 2026, which will provide sustained high-margin computing capacity, further solidifying its leadership in the cloud computing and AI markets.
See More
