Rothschild Warns American Airlines Most Exposed to Rising Fuel Costs
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 05 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AAL?
Source: CNBC
- Rating Downgrade: Rothschild downgraded American Airlines from buy to neutral, with analyst James Goodall lowering the price target from $17 to $12.5 per share, reflecting concerns over the company's future profitability.
- Fuel Cost Impact: Goodall highlighted that the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict increases fuel cost pressures on airlines, estimating that a 10-cent rise in fuel prices per gallon could reduce American Airlines' earnings per share by nearly 25%.
- Pessimistic Earnings Outlook: Goodall forecasts negative earnings for American Airlines this year, although he anticipates a rebound in profitability next year, yet still below consensus, indicating significant challenges facing the industry.
- Poor Stock Performance: American Airlines' shares have dropped 19% this year and 12% over the past 12 months, reflecting market pessimism regarding its future performance.
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Analyst Views on AAL
Wall Street analysts forecast AAL stock price to rise
15 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 11.130
Low
11.00
Averages
17.93
High
22.00
Current: 11.130
Low
11.00
Averages
17.93
High
22.00
About AAL
American Airlines Group Inc. is a holding company. Its primary business activity is the operation of a major network air carrier, providing scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Washington, D.C. and partner gateways, including in London, Doha, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney and Tokyo, among others. Together with its regional airline subsidiaries and third-party regional carriers operating as American Eagle. Its cargo division provides a wide range of freight and mail services, with facilities and interline connections available across the globe. It operates approximately 977 mainline aircraft supported by its regional airline subsidiaries and third-party regional carriers, which together operate an additional 585 regional aircraft. Its subsidiaries include American Airlines, Inc., Envoy Aviation Group Inc., PSA Airlines, Inc. and Piedmont Airlines, Inc.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Impact of Oil Surge: Crude oil prices soared over 11% due to President Trump's tougher stance on Iran, leading to sharp declines in airline and cruise line stocks, with United Airlines and Carnival both down more than 3%.
- Corporate Developments: SBA Communications surged over 18% as it explores potential acquisition options, while Globalstar rose over 13% amid reports of Amazon's interest in acquiring the company, highlighting market focus on M&A activity.
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- Divergent Energy Sector Performance: Energy producers like Diamondback Energy rose over 2% due to soaring WTI prices, while airline stocks such as American Airlines and Carnival fell more than 4% as rising fuel costs cut into profits, highlighting a clear divergence across sectors.
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- House Inaction: Despite the Senate's progress, the House failed to take action on the bill during its own session, likely extending the partial government shutdown through the weekend and affecting federal workers' pay.
- Two-Track Funding Agreement: Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson announced a two-track agreement to fund immigration enforcement and border security for the next three years, ensuring federal workers are paid.
- Trump's Support for Funding Replenishment: Trump expressed on social media his commitment to quickly replenish funding for border and ICE agents through budget priorities that do not require Democratic votes, although far-right House members oppose any legislation that excludes ICE and CBP funding.
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- Bank of America Upgrades Vale: Bank of America upgraded Vale from hold to buy, suggesting that now is an attractive entry point for investors in the iron ore producer, despite Vale's stock dropping nearly 7% since the Iran conflict began, while iron ore prices have risen about 8%.
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See More
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- Cruise Stocks Decline: Major cruise operators like Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line fell about 4% as Trump's speech failed to provide a clear path to end the Iran war, heightening concerns over demand.
- Airlines Under Pressure: Rising oil prices caused airline stocks to tumble, with Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Alaska Air all dropping about 4%, reflecting the negative impact of high oil prices on airline profitability.
- Gold Miners Slide: After Trump's speech, gold prices fell 1%, leading to declines of about 5% for Newmont and Kinross Gold, and nearly 6% for Iamgold, indicating a weakening demand for safe-haven assets.
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