Rising Expectations for U.S. Economic Recession
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 09 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Rising Recession Odds: Kalshi market data shows that the probability of a U.S. recession in 2026 surged to 34% on Monday, the highest level since November, indicating growing investor concerns about economic prospects.
- Impact of Soaring Oil Prices: U.S. crude oil prices have surpassed $100 per barrel, recording the largest weekly gain on record, prompting warnings from economists that sustained high oil prices could severely impact consumer and business spending.
- Market Reaction: The spike in oil prices triggered a selloff in stocks, signaling more pain ahead for investors after a tumultuous week, reflecting a pessimistic sentiment regarding future economic conditions.
- Fuel Price Predictions: Kalshi participants estimate a roughly 60% chance that U.S. gas prices will exceed $4 this month, with the national average at $3.48 on Monday, further intensifying recession fears.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy CME?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on CME
Wall Street analysts forecast CME stock price to fall
10 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 287.270
Low
209.00
Averages
285.90
High
320.00
Current: 287.270
Low
209.00
Averages
285.90
High
320.00
About CME
CME Group Inc. provides a derivatives marketplace. The Company enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and over the counter (OTC) markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data. It exchanges offer a range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange (FX), energy, agricultural products and metals. It offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and FX trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates central counterparty clearing provider, CME Clearing. Its products provide a means for hedging, speculation and asset allocation related to the risks associated with, among other things, interest rate sensitive instruments, and changes in the prices of agricultural, energy and metal commodities. It provides clearing and settlement services for a range of exchange-traded futures and options on futures contracts and OTC derivatives.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
ICE Q1 Profit Surpasses Expectations Amid Increased Trading Volumes
- Surge in Trading Volume: ICE reported a 45% year-over-year increase in total average daily volume for Q1, with energy trading ADV rising by 32%, indicating that heightened market volatility has significantly boosted trading activity and revenue potential.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Revenue from ICE's exchange business grew by 30% to $1.78 billion in Q1, while energy-related trading revenue surged by 46% to $814 million, demonstrating the company's strong financial performance amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
- Adjusted Earnings Beat Expectations: ICE's adjusted earnings reached $1.34 billion, or $2.35 per share, surpassing analysts' average estimate of $2.26 per share, reflecting the company's effective risk management capabilities in a complex market environment.
- Diversification Strategy Advancement: ICE is expanding into retail-focused and digital asset businesses, recently announcing a $600 million investment in prediction markets platform Polymarket, aiming to diversify revenue streams and reduce reliance on traditional trading market fluctuations.
See More
Deutsche Boerse Warns of Risks from 24/7 Trading
- Liquidity Fragmentation Risk: Deutsche Boerse CEO Stephan Leithner warned that 24/7 trading could fragment liquidity and impair market efficiency, as large investors prefer concentrated trading times to enhance market operations.
- Call for Market Transparency: European finance ministers urged the EU to increase transparency in equity trading venues, with Leithner noting that trading activity has shifted to dark pools, causing public market share to drop below 30%, necessitating a return of liquidity to enhance market competitiveness.
- Importance of Regulatory Framework: Leithner emphasized that restoring liquidity does not necessarily require M&A but rather a suitable regulatory framework to facilitate the consolidation of transparent trading venues, thereby improving overall market health and attractiveness.
- Cautious Approach to Trading Hours: While exchanges like Nasdaq and CME are exploring extended trading hours, Deutsche Boerse advocates for targeted trading times to meet the needs of investors requiring liquidity, thus avoiding unnecessary market volatility.
See More
Federal Reserve on the Brink of Leadership Change Amid Economic Challenges
- Rate Policy Stability: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at next week's policy meeting despite challenges such as inflation, the war with Iran, and an uncertain labor market, which may exacerbate consumer burdens, especially after a 55% surge in oil prices.
- Confidence Crisis: Consumer confidence has plummeted to an all-time low, with many employers halting hiring plans, reflecting economic uncertainty; financial analysts note that even if gas prices were to drop, overall price levels remain high, indicating that rate cuts are not a priority.
- New Chair Nomination: Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump, stated during a Senate Banking Committee hearing that he would maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve if confirmed as chair, despite Trump's criticism of current rate policies, arguing that high rates hinder borrowing.
- Credit Market Impact: With the Fed's rates expected to remain unchanged, credit card interest rates are unlikely to decrease, increasing debt pressure on consumers, while savings rates remain above inflation due to the unchanged rate, providing rare benefits for savers.
See More
CME GROUP INC.: BARCLAYS LOWERS TARGET PRICE FROM $343 TO $316
Company Overview: CME Group Inc. is a major player in the financial markets, providing a platform for trading various financial instruments.
Target Price Adjustment: Barclays has reduced its target price for CME Group from $343 to $316, indicating a shift in market expectations.
Market Implications: The cut in target price may reflect changing market conditions or performance expectations for CME Group.
Investor Considerations: Investors may need to reassess their positions in CME Group based on the new target price and the reasons behind Barclays' adjustment.
See More
CME Group Reports Record Q1 2026 Earnings with Highest Daily Volume
- Record Daily Trading Volume: CME Group achieved a historic average daily trading volume of 36.2 million contracts in Q1 2026, representing a 22% year-over-year increase, which underscores the company's robust performance across all asset classes and enhances its market competitiveness.
- Strong International Performance: The international average daily volume reached 11.4 million contracts, a 30% increase from 2025, with record highs in EMEA, APAC, and Latin America, indicating the company's significant expansion potential in global markets.
- Revenue and Profit Growth: The company reported total revenue of $1.9 billion, up 14% year-over-year, with an adjusted operating margin of 72.8%, the highest in its history, reflecting CME's excellence in capital efficiency and customer value creation.
- Significant Shareholder Returns: CME returned $3.2 billion to shareholders in Q1, including $2.7 billion in dividends and $536 million in share repurchases, demonstrating the company's strong commitment to its shareholders and ongoing financial health.
See More
CME Group Reports Record Q1 2026 Earnings and Volume
- Record Trading Volume: CME Group achieved an average daily volume of 36.2 million contracts in Q1 2026, marking the highest quarterly average in the company's history and indicating record volumes across all six asset classes, thereby enhancing its market leadership.
- Strong Financial Performance: The company reported record revenue of $1.9 billion for the quarter, with adjusted net income of $1.2 billion and earnings per share of $3.36, showcasing robust profitability and effective cost management, which further solidifies investor confidence.
- Significant Shareholder Returns: CME returned $3.2 billion to shareholders during the quarter, including $2.7 billion in dividends and $536 million in share repurchases, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder value and ongoing capital management strategies.
- Positive Future Outlook: CME plans to launch 24/7 crypto trading and a tokenized cash project in 2026, expected to drive growth in trading activity while maintaining strict control over operating expenses, with projected adjusted operating expenses of approximately $1.695 billion.
See More
ICE Q1 Profit Surpasses Expectations Amid Increased Trading Volumes
- Surge in Trading Volume: ICE reported a 45% year-over-year increase in total average daily volume for Q1, with energy trading ADV rising by 32%, indicating that heightened market volatility has significantly boosted trading activity and revenue potential.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Revenue from ICE's exchange business grew by 30% to $1.78 billion in Q1, while energy-related trading revenue surged by 46% to $814 million, demonstrating the company's strong financial performance amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
- Adjusted Earnings Beat Expectations: ICE's adjusted earnings reached $1.34 billion, or $2.35 per share, surpassing analysts' average estimate of $2.26 per share, reflecting the company's effective risk management capabilities in a complex market environment.
- Diversification Strategy Advancement: ICE is expanding into retail-focused and digital asset businesses, recently announcing a $600 million investment in prediction markets platform Polymarket, aiming to diversify revenue streams and reduce reliance on traditional trading market fluctuations.
See More
Deutsche Boerse Warns of Risks from 24/7 Trading
- Liquidity Fragmentation Risk: Deutsche Boerse CEO Stephan Leithner warned that 24/7 trading could fragment liquidity and impair market efficiency, as large investors prefer concentrated trading times to enhance market operations.
- Call for Market Transparency: European finance ministers urged the EU to increase transparency in equity trading venues, with Leithner noting that trading activity has shifted to dark pools, causing public market share to drop below 30%, necessitating a return of liquidity to enhance market competitiveness.
- Importance of Regulatory Framework: Leithner emphasized that restoring liquidity does not necessarily require M&A but rather a suitable regulatory framework to facilitate the consolidation of transparent trading venues, thereby improving overall market health and attractiveness.
- Cautious Approach to Trading Hours: While exchanges like Nasdaq and CME are exploring extended trading hours, Deutsche Boerse advocates for targeted trading times to meet the needs of investors requiring liquidity, thus avoiding unnecessary market volatility.
See More
Federal Reserve on the Brink of Leadership Change Amid Economic Challenges
- Rate Policy Stability: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at next week's policy meeting despite challenges such as inflation, the war with Iran, and an uncertain labor market, which may exacerbate consumer burdens, especially after a 55% surge in oil prices.
- Confidence Crisis: Consumer confidence has plummeted to an all-time low, with many employers halting hiring plans, reflecting economic uncertainty; financial analysts note that even if gas prices were to drop, overall price levels remain high, indicating that rate cuts are not a priority.
- New Chair Nomination: Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump, stated during a Senate Banking Committee hearing that he would maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve if confirmed as chair, despite Trump's criticism of current rate policies, arguing that high rates hinder borrowing.
- Credit Market Impact: With the Fed's rates expected to remain unchanged, credit card interest rates are unlikely to decrease, increasing debt pressure on consumers, while savings rates remain above inflation due to the unchanged rate, providing rare benefits for savers.
See More
CME GROUP INC.: BARCLAYS LOWERS TARGET PRICE FROM $343 TO $316
Company Overview: CME Group Inc. is a major player in the financial markets, providing a platform for trading various financial instruments.
Target Price Adjustment: Barclays has reduced its target price for CME Group from $343 to $316, indicating a shift in market expectations.
Market Implications: The cut in target price may reflect changing market conditions or performance expectations for CME Group.
Investor Considerations: Investors may need to reassess their positions in CME Group based on the new target price and the reasons behind Barclays' adjustment.
See More
CME Group Reports Record Q1 2026 Earnings with Highest Daily Volume
- Record Daily Trading Volume: CME Group achieved a historic average daily trading volume of 36.2 million contracts in Q1 2026, representing a 22% year-over-year increase, which underscores the company's robust performance across all asset classes and enhances its market competitiveness.
- Strong International Performance: The international average daily volume reached 11.4 million contracts, a 30% increase from 2025, with record highs in EMEA, APAC, and Latin America, indicating the company's significant expansion potential in global markets.
- Revenue and Profit Growth: The company reported total revenue of $1.9 billion, up 14% year-over-year, with an adjusted operating margin of 72.8%, the highest in its history, reflecting CME's excellence in capital efficiency and customer value creation.
- Significant Shareholder Returns: CME returned $3.2 billion to shareholders in Q1, including $2.7 billion in dividends and $536 million in share repurchases, demonstrating the company's strong commitment to its shareholders and ongoing financial health.
See More
CME Group Reports Record Q1 2026 Earnings and Volume
- Record Trading Volume: CME Group achieved an average daily volume of 36.2 million contracts in Q1 2026, marking the highest quarterly average in the company's history and indicating record volumes across all six asset classes, thereby enhancing its market leadership.
- Strong Financial Performance: The company reported record revenue of $1.9 billion for the quarter, with adjusted net income of $1.2 billion and earnings per share of $3.36, showcasing robust profitability and effective cost management, which further solidifies investor confidence.
- Significant Shareholder Returns: CME returned $3.2 billion to shareholders during the quarter, including $2.7 billion in dividends and $536 million in share repurchases, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder value and ongoing capital management strategies.
- Positive Future Outlook: CME plans to launch 24/7 crypto trading and a tokenized cash project in 2026, expected to drive growth in trading activity while maintaining strict control over operating expenses, with projected adjusted operating expenses of approximately $1.695 billion.
See More
