Prediction Markets Surge as Retail Investors' New Favorite
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 15 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: CNBC
- Surge in Participation: Since the 2024 presidential election, monthly notional volume for prediction markets has skyrocketed to over $24 billion, up from less than $5 billion a year ago, indicating strong interest from retail investors in this emerging market.
- Enhanced Competitiveness: The trading volume of prediction markets is now close to that of leveraged exchange-traded products, although it still falls short of the S&P 500's 0DTE options market, which saw nearly $57 trillion in total value traded in March, highlighting the potential of prediction markets in high-risk investment sectors.
- Driven by Younger Investors: A Northwestern Mutual study found that nearly a third of Gen Z and almost a quarter of millennials are currently engaging in prediction markets or sports betting, suggesting that this market is attracting younger investors and may serve as a bridge to equity trading.
- Diverse Trading Opportunities: Prediction markets are considered more approachable due to their binary outcomes and broad range of events to trade, with KKM Financial's Jeff Kilburg noting that this diversity encourages retail investors to participate, further fueling market growth.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 225.830
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 225.830
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. Its segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing and networking platforms and AI solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and personal computers (PCs), and Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. Its technology stack includes the foundational NVIDIA CUDA development platform that runs on all NVIDIA GPUs, as well as hundreds of domain-specific software libraries, frameworks, algorithms, software development kits (SDKs), and application programming interfaces (APIs). Its platforms address four markets, which include Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Market Recovery: Nvidia (NVDA) saw its market cap dip below $5 trillion earlier this year, but since March, its stock has surged 18%, currently valued at $5.36 trillion, outperforming the S&P 500 and indicating strong market recovery potential.
- AI Technology Leadership: With its deep expertise in GPUs, Nvidia has positioned itself as a key driver of artificial intelligence development, and its latest Vera Rubin architecture is expected to be widely adopted by every cloud model builder, further solidifying its market position.
- Optimistic Earnings Forecast: Nvidia is expected to report a 79% sales increase in its upcoming May 20 earnings report for Q1 2027, with projected earnings per share rising from $0.81 last year to $1.78, showcasing robust profitability and market confidence.
- Investor Confidence Restored: Following strong Q1 earnings reports from major AI developers like Amazon and Alphabet, market confidence in Nvidia's growth prospects has been restored, with CEO Jensen Huang's mention of a $1 trillion sales opportunity further fueling investor optimism.
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- Meeting Context: On May 15, 2026, U.S. President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Zhongnanhai Garden in Beijing, discussing future trade negotiations, highlighting the complexity and significance of U.S.-China relations.
- White House Invitation: Trump announced at a state dinner his invitation for Xi to visit the White House on September 24, indicating that trade talks will extend beyond this week's two-day summit in Beijing, potentially influencing future economic policy directions.
- Strategic Stability Framework: Xi stated that both nations agreed to a framework of 'strategic stability' for the next three years, which could lay the groundwork for long-term development in bilateral relations, although specific agreements remain unconfirmed.
- Future Meeting Arrangements: The two leaders may meet again during the UN General Assembly in September, the APEC meeting in November, and the G20 meeting in December, providing opportunities for further economic cooperation in these significant international forums.
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- Increased Market Attention: DGXX has seen a more than 25% increase in Stocktwits watchers over the past week, indicating strong investor interest in the company's prospects, particularly following its partnership with Cerebras, which could drive stock price growth.
- Major Deal Secured: Digi Power X has struck a deal worth up to $2.5 billion with Cerebras Systems to provide 40 megawatts of compute power for an AI data center in Alabama, with an initial 10-year contract valued at approximately $1.1 billion, showcasing the company's strategic positioning in the AI infrastructure sector.
- Optimistic Earnings Expectations: Wall Street anticipates DGXX will report first-quarter revenues of $11.13 million, reflecting a 20% increase from the same quarter in 2025, despite an expected loss per share of $0.05; the company remains financially healthy with significant cash reserves and no long-term debt.
- Extremely Bullish Market Sentiment: Although DGXX shares slid more than 3% in Friday's premarket trading, retail sentiment on Stocktwits remains extremely bullish, with predictions from users suggesting the stock could rise to $10 following the earnings release.
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- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Nvidia is expected to report Q1 FY2027 revenue of $78.29 billion, representing a nearly 44% year-over-year increase, which will reinforce its leadership in the AI chip market, although short-term stock reactions may be muted.
- Profitability Improvement: The anticipated diluted adjusted EPS of $1.74 indicates a substantial 115% year-over-year growth, reflecting the company's ongoing enhancement in profitability, which may attract more long-term investor interest.
- Rising Capital Expenditures: With capital expenditure expectations for the 'Magnificent Seven' raised from $670 billion to $725 billion, Nvidia's chip demand outlook appears strong, indicating continued investment in AI infrastructure that will further boost company performance.
- Cautious Market Reaction: Despite Nvidia's potential to exceed earnings expectations, its nearly $5.4 trillion market cap means investor expectations are extremely high, suggesting that short-term stock price movements may not be significant, prompting investors to focus on long-term value.
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- Surge in Memory Demand: Sandisk's stock has skyrocketed over 3,000% in the past year and nearly 500% year-to-date, highlighting the strong connection between AI chips and memory chips, which has fueled investor enthusiasm, particularly for Silicon Motion Technology.
- Silicon Motion's Growth: The company reported a 23% sequential revenue growth in Q1, reaching $342.1 million, exceeding the expected $306 million, indicating robust performance in the memory solutions market, with expectations for continued high growth in the coming quarters.
- Increased Market Activity: Silicon Motion traded 9.9 million shares in the week of April 27, marking its most active week in the past year, followed by nearly 7 million shares the next week, reflecting strong investor interest in its prospects and contributing to the stock's nearly doubled performance.
- Multi-Year Growth Cycle: Despite the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, the early stages of AI infrastructure development suggest strong demand and optimistic outlooks, indicating that the memory storage industry will benefit from growth over the coming years, with Silicon Motion poised for returns similar to Sandisk.
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- AMD Market Share Growth: AMD launched its MI300X GPU designed for AI workloads in 2023, attracting customers like Oracle and Microsoft, which helped it capture market share from Nvidia, with expectations of 80% revenue growth in its data center business by 2027.
- Next-Gen AI Accelerators: AMD plans to launch the MI450 series AI accelerators by year-end, configured in Helios data center racks, boasting a 36-fold performance increase over previous GPUs, aimed at competing with Nvidia's new system and further solidifying its market position.
- Broadcom's Strong Performance: Broadcom's AI products generated $8.4 billion in revenue in Q1 2026, a 106% year-over-year increase, with guidance suggesting an acceleration to 143% growth in Q2, indicating the growing importance of AI hardware in its business.
- Investment Value Comparison: While AMD's P/E ratio stands at 97.5 compared to Broadcom's 56.9, making the latter more attractive for value investors, AMD's smaller market cap suggests greater long-term growth potential, appealing to growth-oriented investors willing to take on risk.
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