Prediction Markets Surge as Retail Investors' New Favorite
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 14 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Surge in Participation: Since the 2024 presidential election, monthly notional volume for prediction markets has skyrocketed to over $24 billion, up from less than $5 billion a year ago, indicating strong interest from retail investors in this emerging market.
- Enhanced Competitiveness: The trading volume of prediction markets is now close to that of leveraged exchange-traded products, although it still falls short of the S&P 500's 0DTE options market, which saw nearly $57 trillion in total value traded in March, highlighting the potential of prediction markets in high-risk investment sectors.
- Driven by Younger Investors: A Northwestern Mutual study found that nearly a third of Gen Z and almost a quarter of millennials are currently engaging in prediction markets or sports betting, suggesting that this market is attracting younger investors and may serve as a bridge to equity trading.
- Diverse Trading Opportunities: Prediction markets are considered more approachable due to their binary outcomes and broad range of events to trade, with KKM Financial's Jeff Kilburg noting that this diversity encourages retail investors to participate, further fueling market growth.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 200.040
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 200.040
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. Its segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing and networking platforms and AI solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and personal computers (PCs), and Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. Its technology stack includes the foundational NVIDIA CUDA development platform that runs on all NVIDIA GPUs, as well as hundreds of domain-specific software libraries, frameworks, algorithms, software development kits (SDKs), and application programming interfaces (APIs). Its platforms address four markets, which include Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Optimistic Capital Expenditure Outlook: Analysts project that hyperscaler capital spending could exceed $1 trillion by 2027, positioning Nvidia, as the dominant supplier of accelerated computing platforms, to capture a significant share of this spending, further driving company growth.
- New CPU Platform Launch: Nvidia's Vera CPU, designed for the emerging era of agentic AI, has been delivered to leading AI labs and cloud providers, optimizing integration with its GPUs and expected to accelerate growth in its data center business.
- Valuation Expansion Potential: Nvidia's current P/E ratio is well below historical levels during earlier phases of the AI revolution, and if it re-rates to between 24 and 27 times its expected fiscal 2028 EPS of $12.73, the stock price could exceed $300, implying over 50% upside from current trading levels.
See More
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- National Security Priority: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated at the shareholder meeting that the company would prioritize U.S. interests over commercial opportunities if they conflict with national security, emphasizing the importance of national security.
- Export Restriction Challenges: Huang noted that attempting to smuggle Nvidia chips into countries with export restrictions, such as China, would face difficulties as the company would not provide support or repairs, reinforcing its commitment to national security.
- Financial Return Commitment: Nvidia plans to return 50% of its free cash flow to investors through share repurchases and dividends over the next few years, with projected free cash flow exceeding $96 billion in fiscal 2026, showcasing strong financial execution.
- Shareholder Meeting Decisions: At the annual meeting, shareholders approved the executive compensation plan and re-elected all 10 board members, indicating strong support and trust in the company's governance.
See More
Nvidia Leads the AI Infrastructure Supercycle
- Data Center Revenue Surge: Nvidia's data center revenue reached a record $75.2 billion in Q1 FY2027, reflecting a 92% year-over-year increase, indicating robust demand for its hardware and strengthening its core position in AI infrastructure development.
- Optimistic Capital Expenditure Outlook: Analysts project hyperscaler capital spending could exceed $1 trillion by 2027, and with Nvidia's dominant role in accelerated computing platforms, the company is poised to capture significant market share from this trend.
- Full-Stack Solution Strategy: The introduction of Nvidia's Vera CPU platform, designed for the emerging era of agentic AI, has already been delivered to leading AI labs and cloud providers, further solidifying its control over the AI compute stack.
- Valuation Expansion Potential: With Nvidia's forward P/E ratio currently below historical levels and expected EPS of $12.73 for FY2028, conservative estimates suggest its stock price could exceed $300, implying over 50% upside from current trading levels.
See More
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- Dow Jones Impact: Verizon will be replaced by Alphabet on June 29, 2026, ending its 25-year tenure in the Dow, which may increase investor exposure to artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and digital advertising.
- Historical Performance Insight: Out of the last seven Dow changes since 2015, five of the removed stocks outperformed their replacements in the following 12 months, indicating the presence of the 'Curse of the Dow' phenomenon that could benefit investors.
- Stock Performance Comparison: Over the past 12 months, Verizon's stock has risen only 7.5%, while Alphabet's shares have doubled, highlighting the potential value of removed stocks and the disparity in market reactions.
- Academic Research Support: Studies indicate that companies removed from major stock indexes can outperform those replacing them over the following years, as investors may overreact to removals, leading to undervaluation of the removed stocks.
See More
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- New Product Launch: Qualcomm unveiled the Dragonfly C1000 data center CPU at CES 2026, set to be produced by Meta in 2028, marking a significant push into the data center market to meet the rising demand for AI computing.
- Market Strategy: CEO Cristiano Amon stated that Qualcomm has a roadmap for multiple products targeting the rapidly growing data center market, highlighting its diversification strategy beyond smartphones, especially in power-constrained environments.
- Customer Base: CFO Akash Palkhiwala revealed that Qualcomm has established business relationships with nearly all hyperscalers, leveraging its smartphone chip expertise to enhance competitiveness in the data center sector.
- Acquisition and Tech Integration: Qualcomm also announced the acquisition of Modular, whose software enables AI applications to run on various chip architectures, akin to Nvidia's CUDA, further strengthening Qualcomm's technological capabilities in AI and supporting its data center strategy.
See More
NVIDIA Prioritizes National Security Over Commercial Opportunities
- National Security First: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated at the shareholder meeting that the company would prioritize U.S. national interests over commercial opportunities, underscoring the importance of national security in its operations.
- Export Restriction Challenges: Huang emphasized that attempting to smuggle NVIDIA chips into countries with export restrictions, such as China, would face significant hurdles as the company would not provide support or repairs, reinforcing its commitment to national security.
- Declining Revenue from China: NVIDIA's revenue from China, including Hong Kong, accounted for about 9% of its fiscal 2026 earnings, a decrease from 2025 and 2024, reflecting the challenges the company faces in the Chinese market amid export controls.
- Cash Flow Return Strategy: NVIDIA plans to return 50% of its free cash flow to investors through share repurchases and dividends over the next few years, with over $96 billion in free cash flow generated in fiscal 2026, demonstrating strong financial performance and commitment to shareholders.
See More
