Paul Singer's Elliott Fund Focuses on Gold and Consumer Staples with New Puts — Makes Significant Bets on Tech
Elliott Investment Management's Market Strategy: Paul Singer's firm has shifted its market hedges, increasing its bearish position on gold miners while establishing a bullish stance on the Nasdaq 100, as indicated by its third-quarter 13F filing.
Significant Changes in Holdings: Elliott raised its put position on the VanEck Gold Miners ETF to 11.5 million shares and initiated a new call option on the Invesco QQQ Trust, reflecting a strategic focus on sector-specific opportunities.
New Positions in Consumer Staples and Energy: The firm also opened substantial new put options on the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, indicating a bearish outlook on these sectors.
Portfolio Growth and Exits: Elliott's total 13F portfolio value increased from $17.6 billion to $22.7 billion, while it exited significant positions in the S&P 500 ETF and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, suggesting a shift in investment strategy.
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Analyst Views on GDX

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Gold Market Outlook: The themes that drove stock prices higher in 2025 are expected to resurface in 2026, particularly focusing on the bullish outlook for gold, which has recently reached an all-time high above $4,900.
Investment Considerations: Investors are encouraged to understand the reasons for owning gold, as it serves as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, especially during periods of currency devaluation.
Ownership Options: Investors can choose to own physical gold or invest in gold-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), each with its own advantages and considerations regarding liquidity, security, and insurance.
Mining Stocks vs. ETFs: Gold mining stocks may offer higher returns during rising gold prices, but they also come with risks related to operational costs and market volatility, making diversified gold miner ETFs an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to gold without the complexities of physical ownership.
- Market Reaction: The stock market is experiencing turmoil due to renewed fears about tariffs, reminiscent of similar concerns in early 2025.
- Historical Context: The situation evokes a sense of déjà vu, highlighting the cyclical nature of tariff-related anxieties in the financial markets.

Silver and Gold Prices Surge: Silver prices have surged past $95 for the first time, while gold has risen above $4,700, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Market Trends: The gold-silver ratio remains stable near 49, indicating potential rotation back into gold, as industrial demand for silver is expected to rise, accounting for nearly 60% of its total usage.
Investor Sentiment: Retail sentiment for gold ETFs has turned bullish, while silver trust shares remain in a bullish territory, reflecting a shift in market confidence.
Global Market Reactions: European and Asia-Pacific markets declined as investors reacted to rising geopolitical risks, particularly following U.S. President Trump's tariff threats on European goods, which could escalate trade tensions.
- Overall Performance: 2025 was a strong year for both stock and bond funds, despite facing some challenges throughout the year.
- Final Quarter Success: The last quarter of 2025 continued the positive trend, contributing to the solid performance of these funds.

Gold Prices Surge: Spot gold prices reached $4,400 per ounce for the first time, driven by expectations of U.S. rate cuts and heightened safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions.
Silver's Record High: Silver prices also rose significantly, hitting a record $69.44 per ounce, marking the strongest annual performance for both metals since 1979.
Market Expectations: Traders anticipate two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, influenced by recent economic data and calls for looser monetary policy from U.S. President Donald Trump.
Geopolitical Tensions: Increased geopolitical tensions, including U.S. actions against Venezuela and Ukraine's military actions against Russia, have bolstered the appeal of gold and silver as safe-haven assets.

- Labor Competition: Democratic countries struggle to compete with the low labor costs in Communist China, where the government enforces long working hours and hazardous conditions.
- Worker Rights: The Chinese Communist Party's control allows for exploitation of workers, leading to low or no pay, which poses challenges for democratic nations in maintaining fair labor standards.








