PAAS or HL: Which Silver Mining Stock is the Superior Investment Right Now?
Market Overview: Silver prices have increased by 35% this year, reaching $38.80 per ounce, while gold prices rose by 28.5%, driven by safe-haven demand and geopolitical tensions. The silver market is expected to face a deficit in 2025 for the fifth consecutive year.
Pan American Silver (PAAS): PAAS operates 12 mines across the Americas and has significant mineral reserves. The company reported an 18% revenue increase in Q2 2024, with record cash flow and a 20% dividend hike. A pending acquisition of MAG Silver is anticipated to enhance its production and lower costs.
Hecla Mining (HL): Hecla produces over 45% of U.S. silver and reported record revenues in Q2 2024, with a 300% increase in earnings year-over-year. The company maintains low all-in sustaining costs and is focused on organic growth and exploration projects.
Investment Outlook: Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from rising silver and gold prices, but Hecla Mining currently shows stronger fundamentals and share price performance, making it a more attractive investment option compared to Pan American Silver.
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- Market Weakness: The S&P 500 index fell by 0.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 index decreased by 0.62%, reflecting investor concerns over Middle Eastern tensions that have driven stocks to 3.5-month lows.
- Oil Price Rebound: Crude oil prices surged over 3% as Iran escalated attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, which not only heightened inflation fears but also threatened global energy supply stability, impacting market confidence.
- Mixed Economic Data: January personal spending rose by 0.4%, surpassing expectations, while capital goods new orders remained unchanged, indicating economic recovery's fragility that could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions.
- Corporate Earnings Overview: With over 98% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 74% exceeded expectations, although overall earnings growth remains challenged, with Q4 earnings projected to rise by 8.4%, demonstrating market resilience amidst uncertainties.
- Dividend History Overview: Hecla Mining Co's recent dividend of $0.875 on its $3.50 Series B Cumulative Convertible Preferred Stock reflects the company's ongoing commitment to dividends, although market fluctuations may impact investor confidence.
- ETF Composition Insight: Hecla Mining Co constitutes 8.86% of the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ), indicating its significance in the silver mining sector; however, the ETF's approximately 2% decline on Thursday could affect overall investment performance.
- Stock Price Fluctuations: In Thursday trading, Hecla Mining's preferred stock (HL.PRB) fell about 2.4%, while common shares (HL) also dropped approximately 2.2%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's short-term outlook, which may influence investor decisions.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Despite a stable dividend record, the current stock price decline raises concerns about future performance, especially in a challenging overall market environment, necessitating attention to its long-term growth potential.
- Stock Decline: Hecla Mining's stock fell 5% to $21.10 by 12:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, mirroring a 5% drop in silver prices to $85.14 per ounce, indicating market concerns over future inflation.
- Inflation Data Impact: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.4% rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, maintaining stability; however, there are fears that March data may show a sharp increase, affecting demand for precious metals.
- Market Risk Sentiment: Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led investors to view silver and gold as safe havens, with silver prices initially rising 2.5% after attacks on Iran, but current market conditions and inflation expectations may push investors towards higher-yielding bonds, pressuring silver prices.
- Hecla Mining Valuation: As the largest silver mining company in the U.S., Hecla's stock is closely tied to silver price fluctuations, currently trading at nearly 45 times trailing earnings; although forward earnings suggest a lower valuation under 29 times, rising inflation and falling silver prices could prevent significant price drops, warranting caution from investors.
- Silver Production Forecast: Global silver mine production is projected to increase by 1% to 820 million ounces in 2026, a ten-year high driven by new project commissioning in Mexico, Canada, and Morocco, despite a persistent market deficit of 67 million ounces, indicating ongoing supply-demand tensions.
- Surge in Investment Demand: Physical investment demand is expected to surge by 20% to 227 million ounces, reaching a three-year peak, reflecting strengthened investor confidence in silver's dual monetary and industrial roles, which may help maintain prices around $80 per ounce.
- Trinity Project Progress: Americore Resources has completed a 350-kilometer drone-magnetometer survey at its Trinity silver project in Nevada, aiming to integrate historical geophysical records to build a unified structural model, with drilling expected to commence in Q2 2026.
- Resource Estimation Plans: Americore plans to elevate resources from inferred to indicated status through confirmation and expansion drilling, supporting a new mineral resource estimate, showcasing the company's long-term strategic positioning and confidence in silver mining development.
- Silver Production Forecast: Global silver mine production is projected to increase by 1% to 820 million ounces in 2026, marking a ten-year high driven by new project commissioning in Mexico, Canada, and Morocco, yet the market is expected to face a 67-million-ounce deficit, indicating ongoing supply-demand tension.
- Surge in Investment Demand: Physical investment demand is anticipated to surge by 20% to 227 million ounces, reaching a three-year peak, reflecting strengthened investor confidence in silver's dual monetary and industrial roles, which may further support silver prices.
- Trinity Project Progress: Americore Resources has completed a drone-magnetometer survey spanning 350 line-km at its Trinity Silver Project in Nevada, aiming to integrate historical geophysical records to advance the resource from inferred to indicated status, laying the groundwork for a new mineral resource estimate.
- Drilling Program Initiation: Americore has begun the permitting process for a drill program set to commence in Q2 2026, targeting confirmation and extension of historical data across both BLM land and fee land managed by the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection, aiming to validate historical data and create potential near-term revenue pathways.
- Stock Surge: Hecla Mining's shares rose by 5.8% today, reflecting a rebound in silver prices, which have surged from $72 per ounce at the start of the year to $89, indicating strong market demand and investor optimism.
- High Beta Characteristics: Hecla's stock exhibits higher volatility compared to the market, with silver prices increasing by 172% over the past year while the company's stock surged by 310%, suggesting that this high beta relationship will persist into 2026, indicating increased reliance on silver.
- Strategic Shift: The company is doubling down on silver by divesting its gold mining subsidiary and ramping up exploration and pre-development spending on silver, demonstrating a long-term strategic commitment to the silver market.
- Market Outlook: Despite high prices leading to demand destruction in jewelry and photovoltaic products, overall silver demand is expected to remain stable in 2025, supported by retail investment and growing demand from AI data centers, positioning Hecla Mining for potential growth in this context.











