Oppenheimer: Wall Street Fails to Recognize IBM's Transition Value
Investment Outlook: Oppenheimer has initiated coverage of IBM with an outperform rating and a price target of $360, suggesting a 24% upside due to anticipated growth in its software portfolio.
Software Growth: Analyst Param Singh forecasts a 10% compound annual growth rate for IBM's software segment over the next two years, driven by strengths in automation and Red Hat.
Consulting Revenue Recovery: IBM's consulting revenue showed positive growth in Q3 2025, with expectations for low single-digit growth moving forward, as organizations leverage AI infrastructure.
Margin Expansion: Singh believes that IBM's transition to a software-centric model will lead to higher gross and pre-tax margins, justifying a re-rating of the stock to align with industry averages.
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- Quantum Foundry Launch: IBM announced the establishment of Anderon, America's first pure-play quantum foundry in Albany, NY, with a total investment of $2 billion, including $1 billion from IBM and $1 billion from the Commerce Department via the 2022 CHIPS Act, marking a significant commitment to quantum computing.
- Market Leadership: IBM solidifies its leadership in quantum computing with over 90 deployed quantum systems, more than all competitors combined, and aims to deliver the first large-scale fault-tolerant commercial quantum system by 2029, further advancing the industry.
- Commercialization Outlook: The government backing not only validates the commercial potential of quantum computing but also indicates that IBM's technology is nearing a broader commercial phase, which could reshape global innovation and economic competitiveness.
- Positive Stock Reaction: Following the announcement, IBM's shares surged by 11.3%, reflecting market optimism regarding its quantum computing prospects, as investors begin to reassess IBM's potential financial contributions in the quantum technology space.
- Positive Market Reaction: The Trump administration's announcement of $100 million grants for Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Infleqtion led to over 30% stock price increases for each company in a single day, adding nearly $4.9 billion in combined market value, reflecting strong market optimism for the quantum computing sector.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: Retail investors on Stocktwits turned “extremely bullish” on RGTI, QBTS, and INFQ, although some traders expressed skepticism about the sustainability of these gains, citing weak fundamentals and high short interest, particularly in Rigetti and D-Wave.
- Quantum Market Dynamics: Rigetti focuses on general-purpose quantum computing, D-Wave specializes in quantum annealing systems, and Infleqtion is advancing in quantum sensing and cold-atom technologies, showcasing the diversity and potential within the quantum market.
- Short-Term Risks and Long-Term Opportunities: Despite the current enthusiasm for quantum computing, traders are concerned about the risks and uncertainties associated with the companies' early-stage development, as evidenced by 15.2% of Rigetti and 14.1% of D-Wave shares being sold short, indicating skepticism about their future profitability.
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 is on track for its eighth consecutive weekly gain, reflecting growing investor optimism regarding de-escalation in the Middle East and increased confidence in economic recovery.
- Dow Jones Surge: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 276.31 points to a record close, indicating positive market sentiment towards U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, which could attract further investments.
- Oil Price Volatility: Oil prices resumed their rally after three days of declines, with Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures both advancing around 2%, highlighting market concerns over energy supply and geopolitical uncertainties.
- Quantum Computing Investment: The U.S. government announced $2 billion in grants to nine firms, with IBM receiving $1 billion, significantly boosting quantum computing stocks and showcasing the ongoing investment surge in the tech sector.
- Biotech Index Performance: The NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index rose nearly 4% in May and gained about 33% over the past year, despite a 5.25% decline from January's peak, indicating market volatility and cautious investor sentiment.
- Real Estate Sector Recovery: The S&P Real Estate sector added approximately 3% over four days and has risen about 11% year-to-date, reflecting a gradual restoration of confidence in real estate investments, particularly in a high-interest-rate environment where stable yields are attractive.
- Surge in Quantum Computing Investment: The U.S. government announced a $2 billion funding boost for quantum computing companies, leading to significant stock price increases, with Rigetti Computing soaring 30% in regular trading, showcasing optimistic market expectations for the future of quantum technology.
- Investor Education Initiative: CNBC Pro LIVE aims to provide actionable investment strategies for a diverse range of investors, emphasizing the importance of long-term wealth building and helping participants maintain rationality and discipline amid market fluctuations.
- Market Recovery: On Thursday, the S&P 500 rose by 0.17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.55%, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.20%, indicating a recovery from early losses, particularly with the Dow reaching a 3.25-month high, reflecting investor confidence in economic stability.
- IBM Government Funding: IBM's stock surged by 12% after receiving a $1 billion grant from the US government to invest in its quantum computing business, which not only strengthens the company's technological capabilities but also positions it favorably for future market competition.
- Supportive Economic Data: Initial US weekly unemployment claims fell to 209,000, close to the expected 210,000, indicating stability in the labor market, while strong performance in manufacturing and housing further bolstered market confidence, despite the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey dropping to a 5-month low.
- Oil Price Volatility: WTI crude oil prices experienced significant volatility on Thursday, initially rising before retreating over 1% after Iran stated that the latest US proposal had
- Market Performance: The S&P 500 rose by 0.2%, the Dow Jones increased by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%, reflecting investor optimism regarding positive diplomatic signals between the U.S. and Iran, while the Dow reached record highs, indicating confidence in economic recovery.
- Quantum Computing Investment: The Trump administration's decision to award IBM a $1 billion grant for building a quantum computing chip foundry not only advances IBM's technological capabilities in quantum computing but also strengthens the U.S.'s competitive position in the global tech landscape.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: U.S. crude oil prices fell nearly 2% to close at $96.35 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude dropped over 2% to settle at $102.58, reflecting market uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran and potential impacts on global supply chains.
- Market Sentiment: Among ETFs tracking benchmark indices, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF rose by 1%, and Invesco QQQ Trust increased by 1.4%, indicating strong investor sentiment, particularly in light of advancements in quantum computing and diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran.











