Nvidia Expected to Report 67% Revenue Growth in Q4
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: stocktwits
- Revenue Growth Expectations: Analysts anticipate Nvidia's Q4 revenue to grow by 67% to $65.7 billion, driven by increased capital expenditures from cloud companies and rising demand for inference, showcasing the company's robust performance in the AI chip market.
- Market Opportunity Analysis: While Nvidia faces regulatory approval challenges in China, CEO Jensen Huang emphasizes a $50 billion revenue opportunity in that market, and if sales resume this year, it could push 2026 revenue growth above 70%, providing potential upside for future growth.
- Long-Term Growth Outlook: Gene Munster, founder of Deepwater Management, highlights that the AI data center buildout is still in the 'second inning,' projecting Nvidia's sales to surge 65% this year and 40% in 2027, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of 55% and 28%, reflecting optimism about inference demand.
- Stock Performance Analysis: Nvidia's stock has traded in a narrow range over the past two months, closing up 1% on Friday with a year-to-date gain of 1.8%, outperforming the S&P 500's 0.9% gain, indicating a divergence in investor sentiment regarding its future trajectory.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 187.900
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 187.900
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Earnings Preview: Nvidia is set to report its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results after market close on February 25, with investors keenly watching whether it meets the $65 billion revenue forecast, which could significantly influence market sentiment towards the AI sector.
- Data Center Performance: As Nvidia's revenue heavily relies on its data center division, investors will be scrutinizing the demand for its latest GPU, Blackwell, to gauge overall AI market demand and future growth potential.
- Pricing Power Assessment: Despite Nvidia's dominance in the chip market, its gross margin recently fell from 76% to 69.5%, prompting investors to closely monitor management's guidance on future margins to assess changes in its competitive position.
- Chinese Market Opportunity: Nvidia's sales in China have been restricted, with Huang indicating that a fully open market could yield $50 billion annually; investors are eager for updates on management's insights regarding the Chinese market dynamics and future opportunities.
See More
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- Strong Revenue Expectations: Wall Street anticipates Nvidia's fourth-quarter revenue to reach $65.6 billion, a 65% increase from last year's $39.3 billion, reflecting robust demand and market confidence in the AI sector.
- Surging Product Demand: As hyperscalers continue to expand their AI platforms, demand for Nvidia's GPUs has skyrocketed, with all product lines fully utilized, underscoring the company's critical position in the market.
- Future Growth Potential: CEO Jensen Huang indicated that Nvidia's Blackwell and Rubin chip lines could generate $500 billion in revenue by 2026, with AI infrastructure spending projected to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Valuation and Market Reaction: Despite Nvidia's high P/E ratio of 46, indicating an expensive stock, the strong demand for its products and ongoing earnings growth suggest a positive market outlook, with potential for significant stock movement following the earnings report.
See More
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- Surge in Capital Expenditure: Meta is projected to incur capital expenses of $115 billion to $135 billion in 2023, marking a nearly 74% increase from last year, which will significantly enhance its competitiveness in the AI sector and drive technological advancements.
- Collaboration with Nvidia: Meta plans to purchase millions of Nvidia's Blackwell and Rubin GPUs and deploy its Arm-based Grace CPUs extensively, which is expected to generate substantial revenue growth for Nvidia while enhancing Meta's AI processing capabilities.
- Nebius Growth Potential: As a cloud partner of Meta, Nebius Group is likely to benefit from Meta's spending, with revenue forecasted to soar from $530 million in 2025 to $3.4 billion in 2026, reflecting strong market demand and growth potential.
- Data Center Expansion Plans: Nebius aims to increase its data center count from 7 in 2025 to 16, targeting an active power capacity of 800MW to 1GW by the end of 2026, further solidifying its position in the AI infrastructure market.
See More
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- Earnings Expectations: Nvidia is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 25, with market expectations leaning towards a performance that exceeds forecasts, which could affirm the company's ongoing growth potential in the AI chip sector and boost investor confidence, potentially driving stock prices higher.
- Industry Impact: Analysts suggest that if Nvidia reports strong results and provides optimistic guidance, it could negatively affect software stocks, indicating robust demand in the AI market that may lead to further declines in software valuations, reflecting a cautious market sentiment towards the software sector.
- Competitive Dynamics: With Nvidia's investment plan in OpenAI being reduced from $100 billion to $30 billion, market attention intensifies on its future AI strategy, and investors will closely monitor Nvidia's responses to increasing competition and the potential implications for the market.
- Market Sentiment: Despite declining valuations in software stocks, the market remains cautious about their future performance, with analysts indicating that investors need to be more selective in stock picking to navigate a landscape that may feature significant winners and losers.
See More
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- Memory Shortage Impact: The global AI build-out has triggered a memory shortage, allowing Samsung to profit by raising prices on its next-gen HBM4 chips by 30%, although this could increase costs for its flagship Galaxy S26 smartphones by $70 to $140, potentially affecting consumer purchasing decisions.
- Pressure on Apple: Apple, which relies on Samsung for about 60% of its memory components, is also expected to face margin pressures; while it may initially try to maintain prices to capture market share, analysts believe this strategy may be short-lived, ultimately necessitating price increases to protect margins.
- Market Sentiment Shift: The rise in memory pricing has become the biggest factor affecting sentiment across the IT hardware sector, with many industry participants dubbing it
See More
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- Capital Expenditure Surge: Meta is set to incur capital expenses between $115 billion and $135 billion in 2023, marking a nearly 74% increase from last year, which is expected to positively impact infrastructure stocks, particularly through its collaboration with Nvidia.
- Nebius Revenue Forecast: Analysts anticipate Nebius's revenue will soar to $3.4 billion in 2026 from $530 million in 2025, driven by a $3 billion contract with Meta and a robust backlog exceeding $20 billion, indicating strong growth potential.
- Data Center Expansion Plans: Nebius aims to increase its data center power capacity from 170 megawatts to between 800 megawatts and 1 gigawatt by the end of 2026, while also expanding the number of data centers from 7 to 16, providing substantial support for future revenue growth.
- AI Technology Integration: Meta plans to deploy millions of Nvidia's Blackwell and Rubin GPUs and leverage Nvidia's cloud partner network to streamline operations, enhancing Meta's AI capabilities while creating new business opportunities for both Nvidia and Nebius.
See More
