Nutrien Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations Despite EPS Miss
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 18 2026
0mins
Should l Buy NTR?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Highlights: Nutrien reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.83, missing expectations by $0.08; however, revenue reached $5.34 billion, reflecting a 5.1% year-over-year increase and exceeding market expectations by $30 million, indicating resilience in the company's performance.
- Sales Volume Outlook: The 2026 guidance indicates potash sales volumes are projected between 21.4 million and 24.8 million tonnes, nitrogen sales between 29.2 million and 28.9 million tonnes, and phosphate sales between 22.4 million and 23.6 million tonnes, suggesting a positive outlook for future demand.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Nutrien anticipates capital expenditures for 2026 to range from $4.2 billion to $2.1 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in production capacity to meet the growing agricultural demand and enhance market competitiveness.
- Finance Costs and Tax Rate: Expected finance costs for 2026 are between $650 million and $750 million, with an effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings projected at 32% to 26%, factors that will influence the company's overall profitability and cash flow management.
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Analyst Views on NTR
Wall Street analysts forecast NTR stock price to fall
15 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
8 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 74.560
Low
58.00
Averages
66.08
High
76.00
Current: 74.560
Low
58.00
Averages
66.08
High
76.00
About NTR
Nutrien Ltd. is a global provider of crop inputs and services. The Company operates a network of production, distribution and ag retail facilities. The Company’s segments include Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail), Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate. Its downstream Retail segment distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed and merchandise, and provides agronomic application services and solutions, including the services offered through Nutrien Financial. The Retail segment also manufactures and distributes proprietary products and provides services directly to farmers through a network of retail locations in North America, South America and Australia. Its upstream Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate segments are differentiated by the chemical nutrient contained in the products that each segment produces and are supported by midstream activities, which include the global sales, freight, transportation and distribution of its products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strategic Shifts: Survivors in the industry are adjusting their strategies by moving towards smaller, focused operations and forming partnerships with institutions like schools and hospitals, replacing earlier ambitions of mass-market disruption, indicating a role as a complement rather than a replacement for traditional agriculture.
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Fertilizer Supply Chain Disruption: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to significant disruptions in the global fertilizer supply, with estimates indicating that around 30-35% of plant nutrients depend on this contested waterway for transit.
Market Reactions and Price Increases: Fertilizer prices have surged, with urea reaching as high as $680 per metric ton, and the supply shock is already being felt in markets, particularly affecting the upcoming 2026 spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere.
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