Morgan Stanley Optimistic on Online Travel Agents Amid AI Adoption
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 24 2026
0mins
Should l Buy BKNG?
Source: seekingalpha
- Transformative Technology Impact: Morgan Stanley believes that the adoption of agentic AI will change behaviors among online travel agents (OTAs), leading consumers to prefer purchasing through OTA apps and websites rather than direct in-agent checkouts, thereby increasing OTA market share.
- Booking Holdings Rating Upgrade: Morgan Stanley upgraded Booking Holdings (BKNG) to Overweight with a new price target of $5,500, which, despite being lower, reflects an investment opportunity as BKNG's valuation has dropped to a 10-year low due to agentic technology impacts.
- Data-Driven Business Model: BKNG will continue to own customers and capture extensive traveler data, which will be used to drive high-margin direct business, with Morgan Stanley asserting that OTAs will remain critical players in the long-term online travel landscape.
- Overall Industry Optimism: Morgan Stanley's bullish outlook on the online travel industry has boosted BKNG and its peers like Expedia (EXPE), Travelzoo (TZOO), and Tripadvisor (TRIP) shares in early trading, indicating market confidence in the future of OTAs.
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Analyst Views on BKNG
Wall Street analysts forecast BKNG stock price to rise
25 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 4184.560
Low
5407
Averages
6153
High
6850
Current: 4184.560
Low
5407
Averages
6153
High
6850
About BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc. is a provider of travel and restaurant online reservation and related services. The Company offers its services through five primary consumer-facing brands: Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable. Through its brands, consumers can book an array of accommodations (including hotels, motels, resorts, homes, apartments, bed and breakfasts, hostels, and other alternative and traditional accommodation properties) and a flight to their destinations; make a car rental reservation or arrange for an airport taxi; make a dinner reservation; or book a vacation package, tour, activity, or cruise. Consumers can also use its meta-search services to easily compare travel reservation information, such as flight, hotel, and rental car reservations from hundreds of online travel platforms at once. Booking.com offers accommodation reservation services for approximately 4.0 million properties in over 220 countries and territories and in over 40 languages.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Booking Holdings Executes First Major Stock Split of 2026
- Stock Split Impact: Booking Holdings announced a 25-for-1 stock split, reducing the share price to approximately $184, which is expected to attract more retail investors and enhance market liquidity and investor confidence.
- Strong Historical Performance: Over the past 25 years, Booking's stock has soared over 31,800%, reflecting its robust competitive advantages and market leadership, particularly in the online travel sectors in Europe and Asia.
- Growth Strategy: The company is leveraging its Connected Trip strategy by utilizing generative AI to provide personalized travel recommendations, aiming to increase customer retention and boost revenue from bundled services, thereby driving long-term growth.
- Attractive Valuation: Following the stock split, Booking's valuation appears appealing, with a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2027, representing a 42% discount to its average over the past five years, presenting a compelling opportunity for growth-oriented investors.
See More
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- Market Share Concerns: Fears that AI may take market share have negatively impacted Booking Holdings' business, reflecting investor caution regarding future growth and potentially leading to stock price volatility.
- Change in Investment Recommendations: The Motley Fool's analyst team noted that Booking Holdings did not make the current list of the top 10 recommended stocks, indicating a lack of confidence in its future performance, which could affect investor buying decisions.
- Historical Return Comparison: The absence of Booking Holdings from the recommended list may signify the risk of missing out on substantial future returns, especially when compared to past recommendations like Netflix in 2004 and Nvidia in 2005.
- Investor Community Dynamics: The Motley Fool's investing community highlights that despite Booking Holdings not being recommended, its overall return rate of 914% significantly outperforms the S&P 500's 184%, underscoring the importance of stock selection.
See More
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- Market Share Concerns: Fears regarding AI potentially taking market share have led to a significant decline in stock prices of affected companies during afternoon trading on March 30, 2026, indicating investor pessimism about future profitability.
- Industry Impact: This trend not only affects individual company stock prices but may also lead to a decrease in overall industry investment confidence, thereby impacting future capital inflows and innovation capabilities.
- Investor Reaction: Following the video release, investors have expressed heightened concern over the potential threats posed by AI technology, which may prompt more companies to reassess their market strategies to cope with competitive pressures.
- Need for Strategic Adjustment: In the face of AI challenges, companies must accelerate technological innovation and market adaptability to maintain competitive advantages and prevent further loss of market share.
See More
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- New Tool Launch: KAYAK's newly launched Airfare Trends Dashboard provides a comprehensive weekly view of flight price changes for both domestic and international flights, enabling travelers to make informed booking decisions based on factors like seasonality and fuel costs.
- Price Trend Analysis: Domestic airfare has been steadily increasing since January 2026, with consistent week-over-week rises, while international airfare trends align with 2025, indicating familiar seasonal demand shifts.
- Destination Data Insights: The dashboard offers city-level airfare variation data, revealing that flights to destinations such as Hilo, Hawaii, Palermo, Italy, and Georgetown, Cayman Islands have decreased by up to 18%, providing travelers with targeted options.
- Money-Saving Tips: KAYAK has updated its Trip Calculator to incorporate the latest gas prices and airfare data, assisting users in comparing the costs of flying versus driving, while also offering flexible date tools and price alerts to secure the best deals.
See More
2026 Travel Sector Challenges and Opportunities
- Rising Oil Prices Impact: In 2026, soaring oil prices are directly pressuring airlines and travel operators, leading several airlines to announce fuel surcharges, which could suppress short-haul travel spending and overall travel consumption.
- Stock Price Decline: Booking Holdings (BKNG) has seen its stock price drop 23.1% year-to-date, primarily due to the dual pressures of AI threats and rising fuel costs, although its fourth-quarter revenue reached $6.3 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $6.13 billion.
- Growth Potential Remains: Despite challenges, Booking's room nights grew by 9% in Q4, driving an 11% increase in gross bookings and revenue, demonstrating resilience and long-term growth potential, with expectations for low double-digit gross bookings and revenue growth in 2026.
- Market Positioning Advantage: By partnering with independent hotels, Booking leverages its brand influence to connect travelers, and despite short-term pressures, the long-term preference of young consumers for travel experiences is expected to drive demand growth, positioning it favorably in the future market.
See More
Booking Holdings Faces AI Threat and Rising Oil Prices
- Stock Decline: Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG) has seen a 23.1% drop in stock price year-to-date, primarily due to threats from AI technology and the war in Iran, which have weakened investor confidence in online travel agencies and negatively impacted market performance.
- Revenue Growth: Despite challenges, Booking achieved a 9% increase in room nights in Q4, driving an 11% growth in gross bookings and revenue on a constant-currency basis, reaching $6.3 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $6.13 billion, demonstrating resilience in adverse conditions.
- Market Outlook: While rising oil prices may affect short-haul travel spending, Booking's long-term growth potential remains strong, with expectations for low double-digit gross bookings and revenue growth in 2026, reflecting young consumers' preference for travel experiences.
- Business Model Advantage: Booking's strategy of partnering with independent hotels leverages its brand reach and ability to connect with travelers, continuously expanding new properties on its platform, ensuring competitiveness amid long-term growth in travel demand.
See More
Booking Holdings Executes First Major Stock Split of 2026
- Stock Split Impact: Booking Holdings announced a 25-for-1 stock split, reducing the share price to approximately $184, which is expected to attract more retail investors and enhance market liquidity and investor confidence.
- Strong Historical Performance: Over the past 25 years, Booking's stock has soared over 31,800%, reflecting its robust competitive advantages and market leadership, particularly in the online travel sectors in Europe and Asia.
- Growth Strategy: The company is leveraging its Connected Trip strategy by utilizing generative AI to provide personalized travel recommendations, aiming to increase customer retention and boost revenue from bundled services, thereby driving long-term growth.
- Attractive Valuation: Following the stock split, Booking's valuation appears appealing, with a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2027, representing a 42% discount to its average over the past five years, presenting a compelling opportunity for growth-oriented investors.
See More
AI Threatens Market Share, Booking Holdings Faces Challenges
- Market Share Concerns: Fears that AI may take market share have negatively impacted Booking Holdings' business, reflecting investor caution regarding future growth and potentially leading to stock price volatility.
- Change in Investment Recommendations: The Motley Fool's analyst team noted that Booking Holdings did not make the current list of the top 10 recommended stocks, indicating a lack of confidence in its future performance, which could affect investor buying decisions.
- Historical Return Comparison: The absence of Booking Holdings from the recommended list may signify the risk of missing out on substantial future returns, especially when compared to past recommendations like Netflix in 2004 and Nvidia in 2005.
- Investor Community Dynamics: The Motley Fool's investing community highlights that despite Booking Holdings not being recommended, its overall return rate of 914% significantly outperforms the S&P 500's 184%, underscoring the importance of stock selection.
See More
AI Threats to Market Share Cause Stock Decline
- Market Share Concerns: Fears regarding AI potentially taking market share have led to a significant decline in stock prices of affected companies during afternoon trading on March 30, 2026, indicating investor pessimism about future profitability.
- Industry Impact: This trend not only affects individual company stock prices but may also lead to a decrease in overall industry investment confidence, thereby impacting future capital inflows and innovation capabilities.
- Investor Reaction: Following the video release, investors have expressed heightened concern over the potential threats posed by AI technology, which may prompt more companies to reassess their market strategies to cope with competitive pressures.
- Need for Strategic Adjustment: In the face of AI challenges, companies must accelerate technological innovation and market adaptability to maintain competitive advantages and prevent further loss of market share.
See More
KAYAK Launches Airfare Trends Dashboard for Travelers
- New Tool Launch: KAYAK's newly launched Airfare Trends Dashboard provides a comprehensive weekly view of flight price changes for both domestic and international flights, enabling travelers to make informed booking decisions based on factors like seasonality and fuel costs.
- Price Trend Analysis: Domestic airfare has been steadily increasing since January 2026, with consistent week-over-week rises, while international airfare trends align with 2025, indicating familiar seasonal demand shifts.
- Destination Data Insights: The dashboard offers city-level airfare variation data, revealing that flights to destinations such as Hilo, Hawaii, Palermo, Italy, and Georgetown, Cayman Islands have decreased by up to 18%, providing travelers with targeted options.
- Money-Saving Tips: KAYAK has updated its Trip Calculator to incorporate the latest gas prices and airfare data, assisting users in comparing the costs of flying versus driving, while also offering flexible date tools and price alerts to secure the best deals.
See More
2026 Travel Sector Challenges and Opportunities
- Rising Oil Prices Impact: In 2026, soaring oil prices are directly pressuring airlines and travel operators, leading several airlines to announce fuel surcharges, which could suppress short-haul travel spending and overall travel consumption.
- Stock Price Decline: Booking Holdings (BKNG) has seen its stock price drop 23.1% year-to-date, primarily due to the dual pressures of AI threats and rising fuel costs, although its fourth-quarter revenue reached $6.3 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $6.13 billion.
- Growth Potential Remains: Despite challenges, Booking's room nights grew by 9% in Q4, driving an 11% increase in gross bookings and revenue, demonstrating resilience and long-term growth potential, with expectations for low double-digit gross bookings and revenue growth in 2026.
- Market Positioning Advantage: By partnering with independent hotels, Booking leverages its brand influence to connect travelers, and despite short-term pressures, the long-term preference of young consumers for travel experiences is expected to drive demand growth, positioning it favorably in the future market.
See More
Booking Holdings Faces AI Threat and Rising Oil Prices
- Stock Decline: Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG) has seen a 23.1% drop in stock price year-to-date, primarily due to threats from AI technology and the war in Iran, which have weakened investor confidence in online travel agencies and negatively impacted market performance.
- Revenue Growth: Despite challenges, Booking achieved a 9% increase in room nights in Q4, driving an 11% growth in gross bookings and revenue on a constant-currency basis, reaching $6.3 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $6.13 billion, demonstrating resilience in adverse conditions.
- Market Outlook: While rising oil prices may affect short-haul travel spending, Booking's long-term growth potential remains strong, with expectations for low double-digit gross bookings and revenue growth in 2026, reflecting young consumers' preference for travel experiences.
- Business Model Advantage: Booking's strategy of partnering with independent hotels leverages its brand reach and ability to connect with travelers, continuously expanding new properties on its platform, ensuring competitiveness amid long-term growth in travel demand.
See More
