Moderna's Stock Surges 39%: Key Drivers and Future Outlook
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy MRNA?
Source: Fool
- Significant Clinical Progress: Moderna's personalized cancer vaccine mRNA-4157, developed in collaboration with Merck, shows promising results in a phase 2 trial for advanced melanoma, with five-year follow-up data indicating a significant reduction in disease recurrence or death when combined with Keytruda, thus driving stock price increases.
- Influenza Vaccine Candidate: In early January, Moderna submitted its flu vaccine candidate mRNA-1010 for regulatory approval for adults aged 50 and older, demonstrating strong performance in phase 3 studies and potentially addressing the low efficacy of existing flu vaccines, which is crucial for protecting elderly patients.
- 2025 Revenue Guidance: Moderna expects revenue between $1.6 billion and $2 billion for 2025, down from $3.2 billion in 2024, as regulatory scrutiny in the coronavirus vaccine market leads to declining demand, increasing short-term stock price volatility risks.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite facing clinical and regulatory challenges, Moderna's robust pipeline in mRNA technology and upcoming products like mRNA-1010 and mRNA-4157 could serve as important catalysts for future growth, making it a stock worth considering for investors.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy MRNA?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on MRNA
Wall Street analysts forecast MRNA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRNA is 29.36 USD with a low forecast of 17.00 USD and a high forecast of 63.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
14 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 41.010
Low
17.00
Averages
29.36
High
63.00
Current: 41.010
Low
17.00
Averages
29.36
High
63.00
About MRNA
Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company. The Company is advancing a new class of medicines made of messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA). It is developing therapeutics and vaccines for infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases and autoimmune diseases. mRNA medicines are designed to direct the body’s cells to produce intracellular, membrane or secreted proteins that have a therapeutic or preventive benefit with the potential to address a spectrum of diseases. The Company’s diverse development pipeline consists of 44 therapeutic and vaccine programs, 11 of which are in late-stage development. Its commercial products include Spikevax (its COVID vaccine) and mRESVIA (its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine). Additionally, it has achieved four positive Phase III data readouts for its COVID vaccine (mRNA-1283), its RSV vaccine for high-risk adults aged 18 to 59 (mRNA-1345), its seasonal flu+COVID vaccine (mRNA-1083), and its seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Moderna's Stock Rises Due to Pipeline Progress
- Strong Stock Performance: Moderna's shares have surged 39% in 2026, despite the absence of recent financial results, indicating market confidence in its future potential ahead of the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings report.
- Pipeline Candidate Progress: The combination of mRNA-4157 and Merck's Keytruda has shown a significant reduction in disease recurrence or death in advanced melanoma patients, bolstering investor confidence in Moderna's cancer vaccine prospects, which could become a vital revenue source.
- Influenza Vaccine Submission: Moderna has submitted its mRNA-1010 influenza vaccine candidate for approval targeting adults aged 50 and older, expected to address the low efficacy issues in the flu vaccine market, particularly benefiting elderly patients.
- Declining Revenue Expectations: While Moderna anticipates revenue between $1.6 billion and $2 billion for 2025, the regulatory pressures in the coronavirus vaccine market may lead to declining sales, highlighting the challenges and opportunities the company faces during its transformation.
See More
Defiance ETF Launches 2X Leveraged Moderna ETF for Short-Term Traders
- New ETF Launch: Defiance ETFs recently introduced a 2X leveraged ETF linked to Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA), named Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MRNA ETF (NYSE:MRNX), aimed at traders seeking amplified short-term investment opportunities, reflecting the ongoing growth in the single-stock ETF market.
- Investment Strategy: The ETF aims to deliver two times or 200% of the daily percentage movements of Moderna shares, primarily targeting investors looking to bet on short-term bullish views on Moderna stock through a liquid, exchange-traded vehicle, bypassing direct use of derivatives or margin accounts.
- Market Attention: Moderna has gained significant attention on Wall Street for its mRNA technology and vaccine capabilities, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic when its mRNA vaccine received global recognition, and the company continues to expand its research in infectious diseases and other unmet medical needs.
- Risk Advisory: Defiance ETFs noted that the fund is primarily intended for sophisticated investors who actively monitor their positions and understand the risks associated with leveraged products, including potential volatility and performance divergence over extended holding periods.
See More
Moderna's Stock Surges 39%: Key Drivers and Future Outlook
- Significant Clinical Progress: Moderna's personalized cancer vaccine mRNA-4157, developed in collaboration with Merck, shows promising results in a phase 2 trial for advanced melanoma, with five-year follow-up data indicating a significant reduction in disease recurrence or death when combined with Keytruda, thus driving stock price increases.
- Influenza Vaccine Candidate: In early January, Moderna submitted its flu vaccine candidate mRNA-1010 for regulatory approval for adults aged 50 and older, demonstrating strong performance in phase 3 studies and potentially addressing the low efficacy of existing flu vaccines, which is crucial for protecting elderly patients.
- 2025 Revenue Guidance: Moderna expects revenue between $1.6 billion and $2 billion for 2025, down from $3.2 billion in 2024, as regulatory scrutiny in the coronavirus vaccine market leads to declining demand, increasing short-term stock price volatility risks.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite facing clinical and regulatory challenges, Moderna's robust pipeline in mRNA technology and upcoming products like mRNA-1010 and mRNA-4157 could serve as important catalysts for future growth, making it a stock worth considering for investors.
See More
High-Volume Earnings Reports This Week from Tech and Consumer Sectors
- Earnings Schedule: This week features a high volume of earnings reports from technology, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors, with RIVN stock showing notable movement ahead of its earnings release, indicating investor sentiment.
- Monday.com and Pagaya Reports: On Monday, work management SaaS provider Monday.com and fintech company Pagaya released their earnings before the market opened, with expectations that their results will reflect broader industry trends.
- Coinbase Earnings Expectations: On Thursday, Coinbase is expected to report earnings of 68 cents per share and quarterly revenue of $1.86 billion, despite facing a projected 33% drop in transaction revenue, raising investor interest in its growing stablecoin and subscription services.
- Nebius Group Forecast: Also on Thursday, Nebius Group is projected to report a loss of $1.14 per share and revenue of $246.05 million, with analysts expressing caution, reflecting concerns over cloud service demand in the current market environment.
See More
Movers: Hims & Hers, Novo Nordisk, Micron, Kroger, STMicroelectronics, Nvidia, and Others
- Stock Market Trends: Stock futures were declining on Monday as investors expressed concerns about the sustainability of a recent relief rally.
- Investor Sentiment: There is a prevailing uncertainty among investors regarding the market's ability to maintain upward momentum following last week's gains.
See More
Key Earnings Reports and Economic Outlook This Week
- DuPont Earnings Expectations: DuPont is expected to report earnings of $0.43 per share and revenue of $1.69 billion for Q4 2025, with analysts noting ongoing pressure in short-cycle businesses, while slight improvements in the automotive sector may influence investor sentiment.
- Cisco's AI Focus: Cisco anticipates earnings of $1.02 per share and revenue of $15.1 billion for Q2 FY2026, with CEO highlighting a major multi-year campus networking refresh, making AI infrastructure demand a critical growth driver.
- Importance of Employment Report: The January employment report is expected to show an addition of 80,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4%, directly impacting private consumption and U.S. GDP, making it crucial for investors to monitor.
- Consumer Price Index Insights: The January CPI is projected to increase by 2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, providing essential inflation details despite not being the Fed's preferred measure, particularly regarding persistent shelter cost inflation.
See More
Moderna's Stock Rises Due to Pipeline Progress
- Strong Stock Performance: Moderna's shares have surged 39% in 2026, despite the absence of recent financial results, indicating market confidence in its future potential ahead of the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings report.
- Pipeline Candidate Progress: The combination of mRNA-4157 and Merck's Keytruda has shown a significant reduction in disease recurrence or death in advanced melanoma patients, bolstering investor confidence in Moderna's cancer vaccine prospects, which could become a vital revenue source.
- Influenza Vaccine Submission: Moderna has submitted its mRNA-1010 influenza vaccine candidate for approval targeting adults aged 50 and older, expected to address the low efficacy issues in the flu vaccine market, particularly benefiting elderly patients.
- Declining Revenue Expectations: While Moderna anticipates revenue between $1.6 billion and $2 billion for 2025, the regulatory pressures in the coronavirus vaccine market may lead to declining sales, highlighting the challenges and opportunities the company faces during its transformation.
See More
Defiance ETF Launches 2X Leveraged Moderna ETF for Short-Term Traders
- New ETF Launch: Defiance ETFs recently introduced a 2X leveraged ETF linked to Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA), named Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MRNA ETF (NYSE:MRNX), aimed at traders seeking amplified short-term investment opportunities, reflecting the ongoing growth in the single-stock ETF market.
- Investment Strategy: The ETF aims to deliver two times or 200% of the daily percentage movements of Moderna shares, primarily targeting investors looking to bet on short-term bullish views on Moderna stock through a liquid, exchange-traded vehicle, bypassing direct use of derivatives or margin accounts.
- Market Attention: Moderna has gained significant attention on Wall Street for its mRNA technology and vaccine capabilities, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic when its mRNA vaccine received global recognition, and the company continues to expand its research in infectious diseases and other unmet medical needs.
- Risk Advisory: Defiance ETFs noted that the fund is primarily intended for sophisticated investors who actively monitor their positions and understand the risks associated with leveraged products, including potential volatility and performance divergence over extended holding periods.
See More
Moderna's Stock Surges 39%: Key Drivers and Future Outlook
- Significant Clinical Progress: Moderna's personalized cancer vaccine mRNA-4157, developed in collaboration with Merck, shows promising results in a phase 2 trial for advanced melanoma, with five-year follow-up data indicating a significant reduction in disease recurrence or death when combined with Keytruda, thus driving stock price increases.
- Influenza Vaccine Candidate: In early January, Moderna submitted its flu vaccine candidate mRNA-1010 for regulatory approval for adults aged 50 and older, demonstrating strong performance in phase 3 studies and potentially addressing the low efficacy of existing flu vaccines, which is crucial for protecting elderly patients.
- 2025 Revenue Guidance: Moderna expects revenue between $1.6 billion and $2 billion for 2025, down from $3.2 billion in 2024, as regulatory scrutiny in the coronavirus vaccine market leads to declining demand, increasing short-term stock price volatility risks.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite facing clinical and regulatory challenges, Moderna's robust pipeline in mRNA technology and upcoming products like mRNA-1010 and mRNA-4157 could serve as important catalysts for future growth, making it a stock worth considering for investors.
See More
High-Volume Earnings Reports This Week from Tech and Consumer Sectors
- Earnings Schedule: This week features a high volume of earnings reports from technology, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors, with RIVN stock showing notable movement ahead of its earnings release, indicating investor sentiment.
- Monday.com and Pagaya Reports: On Monday, work management SaaS provider Monday.com and fintech company Pagaya released their earnings before the market opened, with expectations that their results will reflect broader industry trends.
- Coinbase Earnings Expectations: On Thursday, Coinbase is expected to report earnings of 68 cents per share and quarterly revenue of $1.86 billion, despite facing a projected 33% drop in transaction revenue, raising investor interest in its growing stablecoin and subscription services.
- Nebius Group Forecast: Also on Thursday, Nebius Group is projected to report a loss of $1.14 per share and revenue of $246.05 million, with analysts expressing caution, reflecting concerns over cloud service demand in the current market environment.
See More
Movers: Hims & Hers, Novo Nordisk, Micron, Kroger, STMicroelectronics, Nvidia, and Others
- Stock Market Trends: Stock futures were declining on Monday as investors expressed concerns about the sustainability of a recent relief rally.
- Investor Sentiment: There is a prevailing uncertainty among investors regarding the market's ability to maintain upward momentum following last week's gains.
See More
Key Earnings Reports and Economic Outlook This Week
- DuPont Earnings Expectations: DuPont is expected to report earnings of $0.43 per share and revenue of $1.69 billion for Q4 2025, with analysts noting ongoing pressure in short-cycle businesses, while slight improvements in the automotive sector may influence investor sentiment.
- Cisco's AI Focus: Cisco anticipates earnings of $1.02 per share and revenue of $15.1 billion for Q2 FY2026, with CEO highlighting a major multi-year campus networking refresh, making AI infrastructure demand a critical growth driver.
- Importance of Employment Report: The January employment report is expected to show an addition of 80,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4%, directly impacting private consumption and U.S. GDP, making it crucial for investors to monitor.
- Consumer Price Index Insights: The January CPI is projected to increase by 2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, providing essential inflation details despite not being the Fed's preferred measure, particularly regarding persistent shelter cost inflation.
See More
