Li Auto (LI) Short Bets Surge to Record High Amid 24.4% Delivery Decline
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 23 2026
0mins
Should l Buy LI?
Source: seekingalpha
- Surge in Short Bets: As of Wednesday, short bets against Li Auto reached 9.6% of free float, a significant increase from 1% a year ago, indicating a bearish outlook on the company's future performance.
- Declining Deliveries: In December 2025, Li Auto delivered 44,246 vehicles, bringing total fourth-quarter deliveries to 109,194, and despite a sequential recovery, this marked a 24.4% year-over-year decline, highlighting increasing competitive pressures.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Li Auto has become the most shorted Chinese automaker since last year, reflecting its struggles to fend off rivals in the premium SUV market, with its stock price dropping approximately 25% over the past year.
- Decreasing Profitability: According to S3 Partners, Li Auto was the second-most profitable short in the Asia-Pacific region, trailing only Meituan, indicating its vulnerable market position, with short demand expected to remain high but volatile in the near term.
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Analyst Views on LI
Wall Street analysts forecast LI stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 18.320
Low
15.00
Averages
20.51
High
32.00
Current: 18.320
Low
15.00
Averages
20.51
High
32.00
About LI
Li Auto Inc is a holding company primarily engaged in the design, development, manufacturing, and sales of smart electric vehicles. The Company’s main products include the Li L9, Li L8, Li L7, Li L6, and Li MEGA, encompassing six-seat sport utility vehicles (SUVs), five-seat SUVs, and multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs). The Company is also engaged in research and development activities relating to intelligent vehicle technologies, the design, development and manufacturing of various components and systems for new energy vehicles, and the provision of value-added services such as charging, vehicle maintenance and repair. The Company mainly conducts its businesses within domestic market.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Software Issue Impact: The recall affects vehicles manufactured between March 16, 2018, and January 16, 2023, with the software problem potentially causing brief blackouts of the instrument cluster and central control screen; Nio plans to address this through remote software updates and service center upgrades, demonstrating its commitment to customer safety.
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See More
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- Increased Price Pressure: To counter competition, Li Auto is offering rebates of RMB 20-30K, but this could erode the company's fragile profitability and lead to further declines in share price.
- Rising Industry Costs: J.P. Morgan anticipates that rising spot prices for lithium, copper, and storage chips, which have surged by 30% to 50%, will exert widespread pressure on EV industry profits, affecting earnings estimates for Li Auto and other OEMs.
- Negative Market Reaction: The downgrade of Li Auto has resulted in a 3% drop in its share price on Monday, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future profitability and potential impact on its competitive position.
See More
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- Humanoid Robot Production: Over 50 companies are developing humanoid robot platforms, with shipments expected to grow from tens of thousands today to millions annually over the next decade, driven by labor shortages and falling component costs, which will transform operations in manufacturing and logistics.
- Autonomous Driving Adoption: Robotaxis are operational in multiple cities, and advanced driver-assistance systems are set to achieve mass adoption in China by 2030, with hardware cost reductions significantly lowering ride-hailing and freight costs, thus transforming mobility into a software-defined, AI-driven platform.
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See More
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- Significant Delivery Growth: In January, Nio reported a 96.1% year-over-year increase in deliveries, reaching 27,182 vehicles, with the third-generation ES8 SUV accounting for nearly two-thirds of total deliveries, highlighting the company's ongoing growth and market share expansion in the EV sector.
- Ongoing Technology Investment: Nio continues to invest heavily in smart EV technologies, planning to launch an upgraded NIO World model in January 2026 to enhance assisted driving, smart parking, and safety features, further improving user experience and competitive positioning.
- Stock Price Surge: Following the positive profit alert, Nio's stock rose 9.23% to $4.84 in premarket trading on Thursday, reflecting market optimism regarding the company's future profitability.
See More
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- Policy Impact: The reinstatement of a 5% purchase tax on new energy vehicles starting January 1 ends over a decade of exemptions, likely further suppressing consumer purchasing intentions and affecting overall sales.
- Intensifying Competition: Brands like Xiaomi and Nio reported year-on-year delivery increases in January, with Xiaomi exceeding 39,000 deliveries, highlighting intensified market competition that may pressure BYD's sales.
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See More
