JP Morgan Downgrades NIO to Underweight, Lowers Price Target to $5
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 23 2024
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Should l Buy NIO?
Source: Benzinga
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Analyst Views on NIO
Wall Street analysts forecast NIO stock price to fall
7 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 6.070
Low
4.00
Averages
5.90
High
7.00
Current: 6.070
Low
4.00
Averages
5.90
High
7.00
About NIO
NIO Inc is a holding company mainly engaged in the design, development, manufacturing and sales of smart electric vehicles. The Company offers premium smart electric vehicles under the NIO brand, family-oriented smart electric vehicles through the ONVO brand, and small smart high-end electric cars with the FIREFLY brand. The Company focuses on building in-house capabilities including battery swapping, assisted and intelligent driving, digital technologies, electric powertrain and battery, vehicle engineering and design, among others, to control the design and development of the vehicle software and hardware architecture and the critical components.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Battery Swap Milestone: Nio's battery swap network is nearing 110 million swaps, supported by 3,838 swap stations and 8,847 facilities nationwide, processing 110,000 swaps daily over the past three months, indicating strong market demand and user retention.
- Delivery Slowdown: Despite the milestone, April deliveries totaled 29,356 vehicles, down 17.3% from March, with all brands experiencing month-on-month declines, reflecting market concerns about Nio's future growth, particularly as the core brand delivered 19,024 units.
- Expansion Challenges: Nio aims to add over 1,000 battery swap stations this year, but delays in the rollout of fifth-generation stations suggest mass deployment will be postponed to Q3, potentially impacting the company's expansion pace in a competitive market.
- Neutral Market Sentiment: According to Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Nio remains neutral, and despite a decline in share prices following delivery figures, investors express optimism about future battery swap policies, believing they will drive EV adoption.
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- Sales Decline Continues: BYD delivered 314,100 new energy vehicles in April, reflecting a 15.7% year-over-year decline despite a 6.2% month-over-month increase, indicating pressure on market share amid intensifying domestic competition.
- Record Export Figures: The company achieved an all-time high of 135,098 units in exports for April, representing over a 70% increase compared to the previous year, underscoring its growing reliance on overseas markets as domestic competition intensifies.
- Significant Profit Drop: BYD reported a nearly 55.4% year-over-year decline in profits for the first quarter, with operating revenue falling 11.8% to 150 billion yuan ($22 billion), highlighting the profitability challenges faced in a competitive landscape.
- International Market Expansion: With plans to export over one million units in 2026, BYD accounted for 70% of EV sales in Mexico and 75% in Argentina in 2025, showcasing its strong growth potential in international markets.
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- Declining Deliveries: BYD delivered 314,100 new energy passenger vehicles in April, marking a 15.7% year-on-year decline, indicating increased domestic competition pressure, although there was a 6.2% month-on-month increase, reflecting ongoing market share challenges.
- Export Highlights: BYD's exports reached a record 135,098 units, up over 70% year-on-year, underscoring the company's growing reliance on overseas markets, particularly with 70% and 75% market shares in Mexico and Argentina, respectively.
- Profit Drop: The company reported a nearly 55.4% year-on-year decline in profits for Q1, with operating revenue falling 11.8% to 150 billion yuan ($22 billion), highlighting profitability pressures amid strong performances from domestic rivals.
- Overseas Expansion Plans: BYD aims to export over one million units by 2026, with new registrations in Europe rising over 155% year-on-year, while also seeking admission to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association to enhance its market influence, indicating a proactive global strategy.
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- Leadership Change: Nio has reinstated Qiyan Wang as the head of its core vehicle software, replacing Ning Qu, who exited earlier this year; Wang, who originally led the software platform's development, aims to enhance system integration and performance ahead of the upcoming ES9 and Onvo L80 launches, which could positively impact sales.
- Software Platform Deployment: The new software platform, introduced in 2023, has been deployed in over 120,000 vehicles, integrating hardware, software, and services to elevate vehicle intelligence, which is expected to strengthen Nio's competitive position in the electric vehicle market.
- Delivery Data Analysis: Nio delivered 29,356 vehicles in April, marking a 23% year-over-year increase despite a decline from March; year-to-date deliveries reached 112,821 vehicles, indicating strong market demand and growth potential, with the company targeting a 40% to 50% increase in deliveries for the year.
- Market Outlook: With pre-sales for the ES9 and Onvo L80 underway, Nio anticipates a recovery in deliveries through May and June; combined with Wang's return, the company is poised for enhanced profitability, signaling ongoing development and innovation in the electric vehicle sector.
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- Delivery Performance: Li Auto led April deliveries with 34,085 vehicles, despite a 17% year-over-year decline, showcasing its strong market position.
- Nio's Growth: Nio delivered 29,356 vehicles in April, marking a 22.8% year-over-year increase, the highest among the three, indicating the success of its brand diversification strategy.
- Xpeng's Challenges: Xpeng delivered 31,011 vehicles in April, achieving a 13.1% month-over-month gain, yet faced an 11.51% year-over-year decline, highlighting its vulnerability under ongoing market pressures.
- Market Reaction: While Nio's stock rose 6% in April, overall market sentiment remained bearish, reflecting investor concerns about the softness in China's auto market.
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- Delivery Data Analysis: Nio delivered 29,356 vehicles in April 2026, reflecting a 23% year-over-year increase but an 18% month-over-month decline, indicating potential market confidence issues despite strong annual growth.
- Brand Performance Discrepancy: Nio-branded vehicles accounted for 19,024 deliveries, while Onvo and Firefly contributed 5,352 and 4,980 units respectively; despite year-over-year growth for Onvo and Firefly, both brands fell short of last month's figures, highlighting intensified market competition.
- Future Growth Targets: Nio aims for a 40%-50% delivery growth in 2026, targeting an annual delivery volume of 470,000 vehicles, demonstrating the company's confidence and intent to expand in the future market.
- New Model Pre-Sales: Nio has opened pre-sales for the ES9 flagship SUV and the Onvo L80 family SUV, which are expected to drive delivery growth in the coming months, particularly enhancing strategic positioning in the family SUV segment.
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