Investment Analysis: Occidental Petroleum vs. Energy Transfer
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Oil Price Impact: Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) has seen its stock rise 34% this year due to WTI crude oil prices surging over 90% to about $110 per barrel, while Energy Transfer (ET) only increased by 17%, highlighting the superior profitability of upstream companies during oil price hikes.
- Business Model Differences: Oxy focuses primarily on upstream operations, generating massive profits as long as oil prices remain above its breakeven point of approximately $60 per barrel; in contrast, ET, as a midstream company, benefits from higher oil prices but sees limited revenue growth primarily from transportation fees.
- Future Growth Expectations: Analysts forecast that by 2026, Oxy's revenue and EPS will increase by 19% and 283%, respectively, indicating a recovery from three years of declining revenues and earnings, while ET's revenue and earnings per unit are expected to rise by 27% and 22%, but at a slower pace than Oxy.
- Investment Value Assessment: Oxy's current stock price of $55 reflects a valuation of 14 times earnings, suggesting it is undervalued; meanwhile, ET's stock at $19 trades at 13 times earnings, with a higher dividend yield of 6.9%, yet Oxy presents a more attractive growth potential.
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Analyst Views on OXY
Wall Street analysts forecast OXY stock price to fall
16 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
9 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 56.180
Low
38.00
Averages
47.27
High
64.00
Current: 56.180
Low
38.00
Averages
47.27
High
64.00
About OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corporation is an international energy company with assets primarily in the United States, the Middle East and North Africa. The Company is an oil and gas producer in the United States, including a producer in the Permian and DJ basins, and the offshore Gulf of Mexico. Its segments include oil and gas, and midstream and marketing. The oil and gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil (which includes condensate), natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas. The Company's midstream and marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports, and stores oil (which includes condensate), NGL, natural gas, carbon dioxide (CO2) and power. The midstream and marketing segment provides flow assurance and maximizes the value of its oil and gas. It also optimizes its transportation and storage capacity and invests in entities that conduct similar activities. This segment also includes low-carbon venture businesses.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Business Model Differences: Oxy focuses primarily on upstream operations, generating massive profits as long as oil prices remain above its breakeven point of approximately $60 per barrel; in contrast, ET, as a midstream company, benefits from higher oil prices but sees limited revenue growth primarily from transportation fees.
- Future Growth Expectations: Analysts forecast that by 2026, Oxy's revenue and EPS will increase by 19% and 283%, respectively, indicating a recovery from three years of declining revenues and earnings, while ET's revenue and earnings per unit are expected to rise by 27% and 22%, but at a slower pace than Oxy.
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- Market Reaction: Asian markets showed mixed performance ahead of Trump's visit, while U.S. futures remained relatively unchanged; notably, the S&P 500 reached an all-time high on Wall Street, reflecting traders' enthusiasm for technology stocks despite pressures from the latest inflation report.
- Inflation Data Impact: U.S. wholesale inflation surged to 6% year-over-year in April, marking the highest increase since 2022, which intensifies pressure on Federal Reserve policy and complicates the economic backdrop for Trump's high-level diplomacy.
- Global Oil Flow Constraints: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war has severely impacted global oil flows, with OPEC reporting a 30% reduction in supply since the conflict began, posing significant risks to demand growth this year.
See More
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- Oil Price Surge: Brent crude oil prices have surged over 70% this year, surpassing $100 per barrel, primarily due to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran that sparked regional conflict and restricted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global markets.
- Investment Strategy Shift: As the conflict intensifies, investors have pivoted back to oil stocks; however, these stocks may lose momentum once the conflict subsides, prompting a recommendation for investors to consider more balanced midstream stocks to mitigate exposure to volatile oil prices.
- Energy Transfer's Advantage: Energy Transfer operates over 140,000 miles of pipeline across 44 states, delivering natural gas, LNG, and crude oil, with its distributable cash flow (DCF) easily covering annual distributions over the past five years, demonstrating resilience and risk mitigation capabilities.
- Future Earnings Outlook: Analysts expect Energy Transfer's earnings per unit (EPU) to rise by 20% to $1.46 by 2026, and with a current share price of $20, the valuation remains attractive at less than 14 times that estimate, making it an appealing option for income-seeking investors.
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- Oxy's Market Position: Occidental Petroleum's future portfolio has about 80% of its oil breakeven price below $50 per barrel, allowing the company to maintain profitability, reduce debt, and increase dividends as oil prices rise, with expectations for further stock price increases by year-end.
- Stability of Chevron and ExxonMobil: Both Chevron and ExxonMobil have upstream breakeven oil prices below $50 per barrel, and their expansion into overseas oil fields and capacity increases in existing fields will enhance long-term growth potential, despite facing short-term pressures in the downstream market.
- Dividend Growth Potential: Chevron and ExxonMobil have raised dividends for 39 and 43 consecutive years, respectively, positioning them to join the elite
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- Oil Price Impact: Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) has seen its stock rise 34% this year due to WTI crude oil prices surging over 90% to about $110 per barrel, while Energy Transfer (ET) only increased by 17%, highlighting the superior profitability of upstream companies during oil price hikes.
- Business Model Differences: Oxy focuses primarily on upstream operations, generating massive profits as long as oil prices remain above its breakeven point of approximately $60 per barrel; in contrast, ET, as a midstream company, benefits from higher oil prices but sees limited revenue growth primarily from transportation fees.
- Future Growth Expectations: Analysts forecast that by 2026, Oxy's revenue and EPS will increase by 19% and 283%, respectively, indicating a recovery from three years of declining revenues and earnings, while ET's revenue and earnings per unit are expected to rise by 27% and 22%, but at a slower pace than Oxy.
- Investment Value Assessment: Oxy's current stock price of $55 reflects a valuation of 14 times earnings, suggesting it is undervalued; meanwhile, ET's stock at $19 trades at 13 times earnings, with a higher dividend yield of 6.9%, yet Oxy presents a more attractive growth potential.
See More
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