India's Continued Russian Oil Purchases Amid U.S. Tariff Changes
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy CVX?
Source: CNBC
- Russian Oil Import Volume: According to Kpler, India imported 1.16 million barrels per day of Russian oil in February, down from an average of 1.71 million barrels per day in 2025, indicating a shift in India's energy procurement strategy.
- Trade Policy Impact: The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that Trump lacked the authority to impose import tariffs grants India greater flexibility in maintaining its energy relationship with Russia, with expectations of continued imports between 800,000 and 1 million barrels per day.
- U.S.-India Trade Agreement: In a recent interim trade deal, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, although India did not formally commit to reducing Russian oil purchases, highlighting the complexities in energy policy between the two nations.
- Market Dynamics Shift: Despite the easing of U.S. tariffs, analysts note that India will continue to import oil from Russia, as its energy strategy is primarily driven by price considerations and a reluctance to rely on a single supplier.
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Analyst Views on CVX
Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 184.910
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
Current: 184.910
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
About CVX
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company. The Company produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and industry. The Company’s segments include Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with LNG; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels, and transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Acquisition Progress: Chevron has signed a preliminary deal with Basra Oil Company to explore the potential acquisition of Iraq's West Qurna 2 oil field, moving closer to acquiring the project from sanctioned Russian firm Lukoil.
- Exclusive Negotiation Framework: The agreements allow for the exchange of confidential data during a one-year exclusive negotiation period, establishing a collaborative foundation between Chevron and the Iraqi state-run firm, which is expected to expedite the transaction process.
- Contract Transfer Arrangement: A framework agreement was signed among Basra Oil, Chevron, and Lukoil to allow the temporary transfer of the contract to Basra, which will then assign it to Chevron upon completion of negotiations, ensuring a smooth transaction process.
- Approval Conditions: Chevron stated that the agreements will only take effect upon approval from Iraq's Council of Ministers and the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, a process that will impact the finalization of the deal.
See More
India's Continued Russian Oil Purchases Amid U.S. Tariff Changes
- Russian Oil Import Volume: According to Kpler, India imported 1.16 million barrels per day of Russian oil in February, down from an average of 1.71 million barrels per day in 2025, indicating a shift in India's energy procurement strategy.
- Trade Policy Impact: The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that Trump lacked the authority to impose import tariffs grants India greater flexibility in maintaining its energy relationship with Russia, with expectations of continued imports between 800,000 and 1 million barrels per day.
- U.S.-India Trade Agreement: In a recent interim trade deal, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, although India did not formally commit to reducing Russian oil purchases, highlighting the complexities in energy policy between the two nations.
- Market Dynamics Shift: Despite the easing of U.S. tariffs, analysts note that India will continue to import oil from Russia, as its energy strategy is primarily driven by price considerations and a reluctance to rely on a single supplier.
See More
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- Military Presence Escalation: The U.S. is ramping up military forces in the Middle East, with Trump threatening limited airstrikes if Iran does not reach a deal, a move that could exacerbate regional tensions and impact global oil prices.
- Economic Policy Focus: In his State of the Union address, Trump is expected to emphasize economic issues as polls indicate declining support for his economic management, which could affect the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections if not addressed effectively.
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- Contract Transfer Arrangement: During the negotiation period, Russia's Lukoil is temporarily transferring its operating contract to Basra Oil Company, which will revert the contract to Chevron after a new agreement is reached with Iraq, ensuring Chevron's potential operational rights.
- Future Production Potential: Chevron's expansion in Iraq includes not only the West Qurna 2 oilfield but also the Nassiriya project, which could yield up to 600,000 barrels per day within seven years, significantly enhancing the company's production capacity and market share.
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- Acquisition Progress: Chevron has signed a preliminary deal with Basra Oil Company to explore the potential acquisition of Iraq's West Qurna 2 oil field, moving closer to acquiring the project from sanctioned Russian firm Lukoil.
- Exclusive Negotiation Framework: The agreements allow for the exchange of confidential data during a one-year exclusive negotiation period, establishing a collaborative foundation between Chevron and the Iraqi state-run firm, which is expected to expedite the transaction process.
- Contract Transfer Arrangement: A framework agreement was signed among Basra Oil, Chevron, and Lukoil to allow the temporary transfer of the contract to Basra, which will then assign it to Chevron upon completion of negotiations, ensuring a smooth transaction process.
- Approval Conditions: Chevron stated that the agreements will only take effect upon approval from Iraq's Council of Ministers and the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, a process that will impact the finalization of the deal.
See More
India's Continued Russian Oil Purchases Amid U.S. Tariff Changes
- Russian Oil Import Volume: According to Kpler, India imported 1.16 million barrels per day of Russian oil in February, down from an average of 1.71 million barrels per day in 2025, indicating a shift in India's energy procurement strategy.
- Trade Policy Impact: The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that Trump lacked the authority to impose import tariffs grants India greater flexibility in maintaining its energy relationship with Russia, with expectations of continued imports between 800,000 and 1 million barrels per day.
- U.S.-India Trade Agreement: In a recent interim trade deal, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, although India did not formally commit to reducing Russian oil purchases, highlighting the complexities in energy policy between the two nations.
- Market Dynamics Shift: Despite the easing of U.S. tariffs, analysts note that India will continue to import oil from Russia, as its energy strategy is primarily driven by price considerations and a reluctance to rely on a single supplier.
See More
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- Nuclear Deal Negotiations: Trump stated that Iran's refusal to commit to not developing nuclear weapons remains a key obstacle to an agreement, with both sides set to hold new talks in Geneva, which could help ease tensions in the Middle East if successful.
- Military Presence Escalation: The U.S. is ramping up military forces in the Middle East, with Trump threatening limited airstrikes if Iran does not reach a deal, a move that could exacerbate regional tensions and impact global oil prices.
- Economic Policy Focus: In his State of the Union address, Trump is expected to emphasize economic issues as polls indicate declining support for his economic management, which could affect the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections if not addressed effectively.
- Oil Price Volatility Risk: Amid concerns of military action, WTI crude prices rose 0.62% to $66 per barrel, with analysts predicting that further escalation could push prices beyond $70 and potentially toward $80, impacting global market stability.
See More
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- Exclusive Negotiation Rights: Chevron has secured exclusive negotiating rights for one year to take control of Iraq's West Qurna 2 oilfield, which currently produces 480,000 barrels per day, accounting for 10% of Iraq's output and significantly impacting global supplies.
- Contract Transfer Arrangement: During the negotiation period, Russia's Lukoil is temporarily transferring its operating contract to Basra Oil Company, which will revert the contract to Chevron after a new agreement is reached with Iraq, ensuring Chevron's potential operational rights.
- Future Production Potential: Chevron's expansion in Iraq includes not only the West Qurna 2 oilfield but also the Nassiriya project, which could yield up to 600,000 barrels per day within seven years, significantly enhancing the company's production capacity and market share.
- Risks and Opportunities: While Chevron has extensive experience operating in high-risk regions, investments in Iraq still face security and geopolitical risks, particularly the potential impact of U.S.-Iran tensions on oil exports, necessitating close monitoring of the negotiation progress.
See More
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- Significant Leverage Effect: Concentrated in offshore oil fields in Ghana, Senegal, and the Gulf of Mexico, Kosmos offers highly leveraged exposure to crude prices, resulting in more aggressive stock and earnings responses during price increases, albeit with higher risks during downturns.
- Business Model Differences: Unlike Exxon and Chevron's integrated business models, Kosmos relies heavily on favorable oil prices and operational execution, lacking diversified revenue streams, which leads to greater volatility in its market performance.
- Investor Focus: While Kosmos has recently captured attention with its rapid gains, the stability and cash-generating capabilities of Exxon and Chevron remain critical for investors, especially as oil price volatility increases, where stability may outweigh speed.
See More
Stocks to Watch After Buffett's Retirement
- Apple's Sustained Growth: Apple (AAPL) boasts around 2.5 billion active iOS devices globally, and with its robust software ecosystem and 12 consecutive years of dividend increases, it is poised to benefit from AI integration, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Coca-Cola's Stability: The Coca-Cola Company (KO), a long-time Buffett investment, has achieved 62 years of consecutive dividend growth, and despite slow growth, its vast scale and distribution network in the global beverage market position it for steady growth over the coming decades.
- Chevron's Strategic Acquisition: Chevron (CVX) has bolstered its long-term growth prospects by acquiring Hess, gaining a 30% stake in the Guyana Stabroek Block, and is expected to see production and cash flow growth through 2030, reinforcing its leadership in the energy sector.
- Visa's Profit Model: Visa (V), as the world's leading payment card issuer, benefits from a mature payment network and 16 years of consecutive dividend increases, and is expected to continue profiting from the shift from cash to electronic payments, maintaining strong cash flow and profitability.
See More
