Goldman Sachs Updates U.S. Conviction List with New Additions
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy COP?
Source: seekingalpha
- New Additions: Goldman Sachs updated its U.S. conviction list at the start of the month, adding ConocoPhillips (COP) and Loar Holdings (LOAR), while removing Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), MSG Entertainment (MSGE), and Valero Energy (VLO), indicating a proactive approach to new investment opportunities.
- ConocoPhillips Outlook: Analysts highlighted that ConocoPhillips is on the verge of a positive free cash flow inflection, expected to transition over the next three years from heavy project investments to an ‘investment harvesting’ phase, with major projects coming online and reduced capex, significantly improving its financial health.
- Loar Holdings Growth Potential: As an aerospace parts supplier, Loar Holdings is recognized as a high-quality Aerospace & Defense ‘earnings compounder,’ with strong margins and free cash conversion, positioned well for long-term growth and margin expansion in its early stages.
- Market Reaction: Goldman’s update reflects keen insights into market dynamics, particularly in the energy and aerospace sectors, prompting investors to monitor these companies' performances and potential returns in the evolving economic landscape.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy COP?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on COP
Wall Street analysts forecast COP stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 113.460
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
Current: 113.460
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
About COP
ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company. Its Alaska segment primarily explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. The Lower 48 segment consists of operations located in the 48 contiguous states in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian operations consist of the Surmont oil sands development in Alberta, the liquids-rich Montney unconventional play in British Columbia and commercial operations. The Europe, Middle East and North Africa segment consists of operations principally located in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, Qatar, Libya, Equatorial Guinea and commercial and terminalling operations in the United Kingdom. Asia Pacific segment has exploration and production operations in China, Malaysia, Australia and commercial operations in China, Singapore and Japan. Other International segment includes interests in Colombia as well as contingencies associated with prior operations in other countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
ConocoPhillips Shares Surge Amid Oil Rally
- Stock Price Surge: ConocoPhillips shares have started 2026 strong, gaining over 20% to surpass $110, primarily driven by rising crude oil prices, indicating market optimism about its future performance.
- Cash Flow Surge: The company expects to generate an additional $1 billion in free cash flow this year, entirely from cost savings, alongside last year's $19.9 billion in operating cash flow, showcasing its strong profitability on a low-cost resource base.
- Repurchase Program: ConocoPhillips repurchased $5 billion of its shares last year and is expected to increase buybacks in 2026, having repurchased nearly 10% of its outstanding shares over the past five years, enhancing the growth potential of free cash flow per share.
- Future Outlook: With major expansion projects nearing completion, free cash flow is projected to nearly double in the coming years, and combined with rising oil prices and the repurchase program, the stock price could reach $200 by the end of the decade, reflecting strong market confidence in its long-term growth.
See More
Goldman Sachs Updates U.S. Conviction List with New Additions
- New Additions: Goldman Sachs updated its U.S. conviction list at the start of the month, adding ConocoPhillips (COP) and Loar Holdings (LOAR), while removing Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), MSG Entertainment (MSGE), and Valero Energy (VLO), indicating a proactive approach to new investment opportunities.
- ConocoPhillips Outlook: Analysts highlighted that ConocoPhillips is on the verge of a positive free cash flow inflection, expected to transition over the next three years from heavy project investments to an ‘investment harvesting’ phase, with major projects coming online and reduced capex, significantly improving its financial health.
- Loar Holdings Growth Potential: As an aerospace parts supplier, Loar Holdings is recognized as a high-quality Aerospace & Defense ‘earnings compounder,’ with strong margins and free cash conversion, positioned well for long-term growth and margin expansion in its early stages.
- Market Reaction: Goldman’s update reflects keen insights into market dynamics, particularly in the energy and aerospace sectors, prompting investors to monitor these companies' performances and potential returns in the evolving economic landscape.
See More
ConocoPhillips Shares Surge Amid Oil Price Spike
- Stock Surge: ConocoPhillips (COP) shares rose as much as 5.1% on Monday, ultimately settling at a 3.3% gain, primarily driven by a spike in oil prices due to the recent conflict with Iran, indicating strong market confidence in its stability.
- Market Performance: With a current price of $118.56 and a market cap of $142 billion, ConocoPhillips demonstrates robust performance despite geopolitical risks, reflecting its strong foundation in the U.S. market.
- Revenue Sources: By 2025, approximately 74% of ConocoPhillips' earnings are expected to come from the U.S. and Canada, highlighting its heavy reliance on the domestic market, while only 14% of earnings stem from Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa, mitigating conflict risks.
- Potential Gains: Following the leadership change in Venezuela, ConocoPhillips may benefit from approximately $10 billion in unpaid damages, which could further enhance its financial position and boost investor confidence.
See More
ConocoPhillips Shares Surge Amid Oil Price Spike
- Stock Price Surge: ConocoPhillips shares rallied as much as 5.1% on Monday, settling at a 3.3% gain, primarily driven by a spike in oil prices due to the recent conflict in Iran, reflecting market confidence in its stability.
- U.S. Market Focus: With a market cap of $142 billion, approximately 74% of ConocoPhillips' 2025 earnings before corporate expenses are derived from the U.S., indicating its relative safety in geopolitical conflicts and ability to withstand external risks.
- Oil Price Increase: The conflict has led to a 5.7% rise in oil prices on the day, which not only boosts Conoco's market performance but also enhances its appeal as a defensive asset in investment portfolios amid current market uncertainties.
- Potential Gains from Venezuela: ConocoPhillips may benefit from the recent leadership change in Venezuela, as the country owes the company around $10 billion in damages, and successfully recovering this amount could significantly improve its financial position and market standing.
See More
Global Oil Market Faces Supply Crisis Amid U.S.-Iran War
- Supply Disruption Risk: The U.S.-Iran war has led to a near-total halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for about one-third of global seaborne oil exports in 2025, posing a significant risk of slowing the global economy.
- Price Surge: Crude oil prices rose over 5% on Monday, with European natural gas futures soaring more than 40%, and if the conflict persists, Brent prices could exceed $120 per barrel, leading to higher fuel costs for consumers.
- Production Capacity Threat: Should the war last more than three weeks, Gulf countries' storage capacity may be exhausted, potentially forcing production halts and putting Iran's output of over 3 million barrels per day at risk, further tightening market conditions.
- Geopolitical Impact: The tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program and missile development could lead to oil prices spiking over 70% during regime changes, while U.S. and Israeli military actions have rendered negotiations impossible, increasing market uncertainty.
See More
Retail Investors Actively Position in Energy and Defense Stocks
- Retail Inflows: On Monday, retail investors net bought over $14 million in the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) following U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran, marking a more than 425% increase compared to Friday's trading volume, indicating strong interest in energy stocks.
- Defense Stock Surge: During the same hour, Palantir saw net inflows exceeding $800,000, a dramatic shift from the net selling of over $500,000 observed on Friday, leading to a more than 6% rise in its stock during midday trading, reflecting a reassessment of the defense sector.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: While retail investors showed activity in specific stocks, the broader market did not experience widespread panic, with analysts noting that investors are engaging in selective repositioning, indicating a more defensive strategy amid rising uncertainty.
- Hedging Strategies Evident: There was a notable increase in demand for the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ), suggesting that retail investors are not only reallocating their portfolios but are also actively hedging against potential market volatility.
See More
ConocoPhillips Shares Surge Amid Oil Rally
- Stock Price Surge: ConocoPhillips shares have started 2026 strong, gaining over 20% to surpass $110, primarily driven by rising crude oil prices, indicating market optimism about its future performance.
- Cash Flow Surge: The company expects to generate an additional $1 billion in free cash flow this year, entirely from cost savings, alongside last year's $19.9 billion in operating cash flow, showcasing its strong profitability on a low-cost resource base.
- Repurchase Program: ConocoPhillips repurchased $5 billion of its shares last year and is expected to increase buybacks in 2026, having repurchased nearly 10% of its outstanding shares over the past five years, enhancing the growth potential of free cash flow per share.
- Future Outlook: With major expansion projects nearing completion, free cash flow is projected to nearly double in the coming years, and combined with rising oil prices and the repurchase program, the stock price could reach $200 by the end of the decade, reflecting strong market confidence in its long-term growth.
See More
Goldman Sachs Updates U.S. Conviction List with New Additions
- New Additions: Goldman Sachs updated its U.S. conviction list at the start of the month, adding ConocoPhillips (COP) and Loar Holdings (LOAR), while removing Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), MSG Entertainment (MSGE), and Valero Energy (VLO), indicating a proactive approach to new investment opportunities.
- ConocoPhillips Outlook: Analysts highlighted that ConocoPhillips is on the verge of a positive free cash flow inflection, expected to transition over the next three years from heavy project investments to an ‘investment harvesting’ phase, with major projects coming online and reduced capex, significantly improving its financial health.
- Loar Holdings Growth Potential: As an aerospace parts supplier, Loar Holdings is recognized as a high-quality Aerospace & Defense ‘earnings compounder,’ with strong margins and free cash conversion, positioned well for long-term growth and margin expansion in its early stages.
- Market Reaction: Goldman’s update reflects keen insights into market dynamics, particularly in the energy and aerospace sectors, prompting investors to monitor these companies' performances and potential returns in the evolving economic landscape.
See More
ConocoPhillips Shares Surge Amid Oil Price Spike
- Stock Surge: ConocoPhillips (COP) shares rose as much as 5.1% on Monday, ultimately settling at a 3.3% gain, primarily driven by a spike in oil prices due to the recent conflict with Iran, indicating strong market confidence in its stability.
- Market Performance: With a current price of $118.56 and a market cap of $142 billion, ConocoPhillips demonstrates robust performance despite geopolitical risks, reflecting its strong foundation in the U.S. market.
- Revenue Sources: By 2025, approximately 74% of ConocoPhillips' earnings are expected to come from the U.S. and Canada, highlighting its heavy reliance on the domestic market, while only 14% of earnings stem from Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa, mitigating conflict risks.
- Potential Gains: Following the leadership change in Venezuela, ConocoPhillips may benefit from approximately $10 billion in unpaid damages, which could further enhance its financial position and boost investor confidence.
See More
ConocoPhillips Shares Surge Amid Oil Price Spike
- Stock Price Surge: ConocoPhillips shares rallied as much as 5.1% on Monday, settling at a 3.3% gain, primarily driven by a spike in oil prices due to the recent conflict in Iran, reflecting market confidence in its stability.
- U.S. Market Focus: With a market cap of $142 billion, approximately 74% of ConocoPhillips' 2025 earnings before corporate expenses are derived from the U.S., indicating its relative safety in geopolitical conflicts and ability to withstand external risks.
- Oil Price Increase: The conflict has led to a 5.7% rise in oil prices on the day, which not only boosts Conoco's market performance but also enhances its appeal as a defensive asset in investment portfolios amid current market uncertainties.
- Potential Gains from Venezuela: ConocoPhillips may benefit from the recent leadership change in Venezuela, as the country owes the company around $10 billion in damages, and successfully recovering this amount could significantly improve its financial position and market standing.
See More
Global Oil Market Faces Supply Crisis Amid U.S.-Iran War
- Supply Disruption Risk: The U.S.-Iran war has led to a near-total halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for about one-third of global seaborne oil exports in 2025, posing a significant risk of slowing the global economy.
- Price Surge: Crude oil prices rose over 5% on Monday, with European natural gas futures soaring more than 40%, and if the conflict persists, Brent prices could exceed $120 per barrel, leading to higher fuel costs for consumers.
- Production Capacity Threat: Should the war last more than three weeks, Gulf countries' storage capacity may be exhausted, potentially forcing production halts and putting Iran's output of over 3 million barrels per day at risk, further tightening market conditions.
- Geopolitical Impact: The tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program and missile development could lead to oil prices spiking over 70% during regime changes, while U.S. and Israeli military actions have rendered negotiations impossible, increasing market uncertainty.
See More
Retail Investors Actively Position in Energy and Defense Stocks
- Retail Inflows: On Monday, retail investors net bought over $14 million in the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) following U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran, marking a more than 425% increase compared to Friday's trading volume, indicating strong interest in energy stocks.
- Defense Stock Surge: During the same hour, Palantir saw net inflows exceeding $800,000, a dramatic shift from the net selling of over $500,000 observed on Friday, leading to a more than 6% rise in its stock during midday trading, reflecting a reassessment of the defense sector.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: While retail investors showed activity in specific stocks, the broader market did not experience widespread panic, with analysts noting that investors are engaging in selective repositioning, indicating a more defensive strategy amid rising uncertainty.
- Hedging Strategies Evident: There was a notable increase in demand for the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ), suggesting that retail investors are not only reallocating their portfolios but are also actively hedging against potential market volatility.
See More
