Global Smartphone Shipments Grow 2% in 2025, Led by Apple and Samsung
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 29 2026
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Should l Buy AAPL?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Market Growth Trend: Global smartphone shipments reached 1.25 billion units in 2025, marking a 2% year-over-year increase and the highest annual volume since 2021, although Greater China saw a slight decline due to the fading subsidy effects.
- Apple's Strong Performance: Apple achieved its highest-ever shipment volume in 2025, with iPhone shipments growing 7% to 240.6 million units, maintaining its position as the world's largest vendor for the third consecutive year, particularly thriving in China with a 26% year-on-year growth.
- Samsung's Significant Rebound: After three consecutive years of decline, Samsung's shipments grew 7% year-on-year in 2025, culminating in a 16% increase in Q4, driven by strong flagship demand and a recovery in entry-level markets, indicating a positive shift in market share.
- Emerging Brands Rising: Nothing emerged as the fastest-growing vendor in 2025, with an 86% increase in shipments surpassing 3 million units, while vivo claimed the fourth spot for the first time, growing 4% to 105.3 million units, highlighting intensified market competition and brand diversification.
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Analyst Views on AAPL
Wall Street analysts forecast AAPL stock price to rise
27 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 247.990
Low
239.00
Averages
306.89
High
350.00
Current: 247.990
Low
239.00
Averages
306.89
High
350.00
About AAPL
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. Its product categories include iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Wearables, Home and Accessories. Its software platforms include iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, visionOS, and tvOS. Its services include advertising, AppleCare, cloud services, digital content and payment services. The Company operates various platforms, including the App Store, that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games and podcasts. It also offers digital content through subscription-based services, including Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness+, Apple Music, Apple News+, and Apple TV+. Its products include iPhone 16 Pro, iPhone 16, iPhone 15, iPhone 14, iPhone SE, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, Mac Pro, iPad Pro, iPad Air, AirPods, AirPods Pro, AirPods Max, Apple TV, Apple Vision Pro and others.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Survey Highlights: Morgan Stanley's survey indicates that Apple stands out in the 2025 smartphone market, with China's iPhone upgrade rates improving by 9 percentage points year-over-year and global blended upgrade rates reaching all-time highs, showcasing Apple's strong market performance.
- Increased User Conversion: The survey reveals that switching rates to Apple have hit a five-year high, with average storage capacity demand growing by 18% year-over-year, indicating a sustained increase in consumer demand for Apple products, further solidifying its market position.
- Revenue Forecast Upgrade: Morgan Stanley analysts expect Apple's iPhone revenue for FY26 to exceed market expectations by 3%, highlighting the potential demand for a Foldable iPhone that could drive average selling price growth, suggesting the strongest two consecutive years of iPhone growth in over a decade.
- Optimistic Investment Rating: Analysts maintain an Overweight rating on Apple with a price target of $315, predicting that Apple will be the only major smartphone manufacturer to gain market share this year, reflecting its competitive advantages.
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- Market Strategy Adjustment: CEO Tim Cook emphasized collaboration with Chinese developers at the China Development Forum, showcasing Apple's adaptability amid regulatory scrutiny following state media criticism of its App Store policies.
- Fee Reduction Initiative: Apple recently lowered fees for developers in China, a significant concession amid potential antitrust scrutiny, aimed at strengthening relationships with local developers and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Supply Chain Diversification: While Apple continues to manufacture most devices in China, it is expanding assembly operations into countries like Vietnam and India, reflecting a strategic effort to diversify its supply chain without abandoning its core production hub.
- Market Recovery in China: Apple's revenue from China surged 38% to $25.5 billion in the December quarter, driven by demand for the latest iPhone lineup and users switching from rival devices, indicating a rebound in market potential.
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- Apple's Strong Earnings: Apple reported a record revenue of $143.8 billion for Q1 2026, a 16% year-over-year increase, with operating cash flow nearing $54 billion, showcasing robust performance in hardware and software despite market pressures.
- Service Revenue Growth: Apple's services revenue reached $30 billion, up 14% year-over-year, achieving all-time highs across advertising, music, payments, and cloud services, indicating the continued strengthening of its ecosystem lock-in effect.
- Google's Revenue Milestone: Alphabet crossed $400 billion in annual revenue for 2025, with Gemini technology increasingly integrated across major products like Search, Cloud, and YouTube, highlighting its strong growth potential in the AI sector.
- Surge in Capital Expenditure: Google projects capital expenditures for 2026 to be between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly double the $91.4 billion spent in 2025, which will accelerate depreciation and potentially compress margins, but management signals a long-term investment in AI as a core growth driver.
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- Technical Level Decline: NVIDIA's stock slipped below its 200-day moving average on Friday for the first time since May 2025, although it rebounded over 2% on Monday, indicating ongoing technical pressure that may affect investor confidence.
- Capacity Constraints Adjustment: Due to limited production capacity on TSMC's A16 process, NVIDIA is revising the design of its Feynman AI chips, with only critical components expected to use the A16 process while others shift to the older N3P process, potentially delaying product launches.
- AI Factory Development Partnership: NVIDIA has partnered with Emerald AI and several energy firms to develop new AI factories that will connect to power grids more quickly and serve as flexible energy assets, aiming to enhance grid stability and demonstrating the company's long-term strategic focus in the AI sector.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite outperforming most peers in the “Magnificent 7,” NVIDIA's stock has declined 5.8% in 2026, and retail sentiment shifted from 'bullish' to 'neutral', reflecting investor concerns over broader market weakness that could impact future investment decisions.
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- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the current stock price to the 200-day moving average can provide valuable insights for investors, helping to assess market trends and potential buying opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding for ETFs highlights significant inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), directly affecting the buying and selling strategies of the underlying assets held within the ETFs.
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- Severe Outflow: The YieldMax Russell 2000 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF experienced an outflow of 300,000 units this week, representing a 38.7% decline compared to the previous week, indicating a significant loss of investor confidence that could impact future inflows and market performance.
- Market Reaction: Such large-scale outflows typically signal investor concerns about market prospects, potentially leading to decreased liquidity for the ETF, which may affect its trading price and investors' holding decisions.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: The outflow reflects a change in how investors assess the risks associated with the ETF, possibly prompting management to reevaluate its investment strategy to restore market confidence and ensure long-term stability of the fund.
- Industry Impact: The outflow from the YieldMax ETF could have a ripple effect across the entire ETF industry, particularly among funds with similar strategies, as investors may reassess their portfolios, leading to broader capital movements and market volatility.
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