Genius Sports Projects $1.2 Billion Revenue by 2028 Amid Market Challenges

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

GENI-0.42%

Source: NASDAQ.COM

Updated: Jan 06 2026

0mins

Source: NASDAQ.COM

Revenue Growth Outlook: Genius Sports projects revenue of $1.2 billion by 2028, implying a 22% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next three years, indicating rising potential and demand in the prediction markets.
Media Business Expansion: The company's media arm is rapidly growing, with a forecast of $300 million in revenue by 2028, which not only enhances its position in the sports advertising ecosystem but could also be as significant as its betting data business.
Market Recovery Potential: Despite the stock's decline from a 52-week high of $13.73 to below $9 at the end of 2025, Genius Sports' stock has begun to recover, reflecting market recognition of its long-term growth potential.
Technological Application Advantage: Genius Sports leverages artificial intelligence to assist advertisers in serving relevant ads during live sporting events, which not only enhances advertising effectiveness but may also create new revenue streams for the company.

GENI

$9.51+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on GENI

Wall Street analysts forecast GENI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GENI is 16.00 USD with a low forecast of 13.00 USD and a high forecast of 20.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

13 Analyst Rating

12 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 9.550

Low

13.00

Averages

16.00

High

20.00

Current: 9.550

Low

13.00

Averages

16.00

High

20.00

Stifel

Jeffrey Stantial

Hold

initiated

$10

2026-01-21

Reason

Stifel

Jeffrey Stantial

Price Target

$10

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

initiated

Hold

Reason

Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial initiated coverage of Genius Sports with a Hold rating and $10 price target. The longstanding bear case revolves around competition for data rights, though the sector seems to be consolidating into a rational duopoly with Genius' contra-service model creating incremental switching costs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm added that while the fundamental multi-year setup appears attractive, shares have outperformed and the firm believes the risk-reward appears balanced.

Wells Fargo

Equal Weight -> Overweight

upgrade

$16

2026-01-09

Reason

Wells Fargo

Price Target

$16

2026-01-09

upgrade

Equal Weight -> Overweight

Reason

Wells Fargo upgraded Genius Sports to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $16 price target.

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Wells Fargo

Equal Weight -> Overweight

upgrade

$13 -> $16

2026-01-09

Reason

Wells Fargo

Price Target

$13 -> $16

2026-01-09

upgrade

Equal Weight -> Overweight

Reason

As previously reported, Wells Fargo upgraded Genius Sports to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $16, up from $13. As the firm dove into the media/advertising opportunity presented by Genius' management at its November Investor Day, Wells' first response was the company's NFL relationship seems too good to be true given the company's ability to enable live viewership of NFL games across the company's platform partners. The firm sees potential for upside above and beyond management's long-term guide. Further, Wells believes the implied level of direct NFL advertising and related brand/ad opportunities could prove conservative looking out to 2028 for the self-serve portion of the forecast. The firm thinks the NFL could represent $50M-plus of self-serve ad revenue, and it estimates about $350M of Media revenue by 2028 relative to the company's $300M guidance.

Benchmark

analyst

Buy

maintain

$16

2025-12-30

Reason

Benchmark

analyst

Price Target

$16

2025-12-30

maintain

Buy

Reason

Benchmark is naming Genius Sports as a 2026 EDM Top Idea, citing accelerating media monetization, improving data-driven engagement, and expanding operating leverage. Genius is differentiated by its ability to monetize live content in real time through data, advertising, and interactive formats rather than relying on traditional content licensing alone, argues the analyst, who has a Buy rating and $16 price target on the shares.

About GENI

Genius Sports Limited is the official data, technology and broadcast partner that powers the ecosystem connecting sports, betting and media. It operates through one segment, which consists of providing access to Betting Content Technology, Content and Services; Media Technology Content and Services; and Sports Technology and Services. It builds and supplies technology and services that allow sports leagues to collect, analyze and monetize their data with added tools to deepen fan engagement. It provides sports leagues with bespoke monitoring technology and education services to help protect their competitions and athletes from the threats of match fixing and betting-related corruption. It offers official data, outsourced bookmaking, trading/risk management services and live audio-visual game content that is derived from its streaming partnerships with sports leagues. Its offerings include Live sports data, Pre-game and in-game odds feeds, and BetVision, among others.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.