AstraZeneca oral GLP1 looks to be trailing Eli Lilly's, says Deutsche Bank
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 04 2024
0mins
Should l Buy LLY?
AstraZeneca's Drug Comparison: Deutsche Bank reports that AstraZeneca's oral GLP1 drug, AZD5004, is expected to be three years behind Eli Lilly's orforglipron in market readiness and lacks significant differentiation in weight loss and safety profiles.
Eli Lilly's Market Position: Despite the competition, Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy rating on Eli Lilly shares with a price target of $1,015, indicating confidence in its market position.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 934.600
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 934.600
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Comparison with Estimates: This adjusted EPS surpasses the estimated EPS of $6.66, suggesting stronger-than-expected financial performance.
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- Positive Market Reaction: Following the strong earnings report, Apple's stock performed well at market open, reflecting investor confidence in the company's future growth potential, particularly against the backdrop of upcoming product launches.
- Industry Trend Impact: Apple's success also mirrors the recovery of the broader tech sector, with both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indices reaching all-time highs, showcasing strong demand for tech stocks and investor optimism.
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- Surging Energy Prices: California's average gas price topped $6 per gallon for the first time since 2023, marking a 30% increase since the onset of the Iran war, which could significantly pressure consumers and impact spending.
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- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects a positive outlook on Eli Lilly's performance and potential growth in the market.
See More
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Economic Adjustments: The report indicates an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $8.55, reflecting a positive outlook for the company.
Comparison with Estimates: This adjusted EPS surpasses the estimated EPS of $6.66, suggesting stronger-than-expected financial performance.
See More
Eli Lilly Q1 Earnings Forecast
- Earnings Release Date: Eli Lilly & Co. is set to announce its Q1 earnings on April 30, which is highly anticipated by the market and expected to provide insights into the company's latest developments in drug research and market performance.
- Earnings Per Share Expectation: Analysts forecast that Eli Lilly's Q1 earnings per share will reach $6.79, a significant increase from $3.34 in the same period last year, indicating a robust recovery in drug sales and market demand.
- Stock Price Movement: Despite the optimistic outlook for the earnings report, Eli Lilly's stock fell by 2.6% on Wednesday, likely influenced by overall market sentiment and profit-taking by investors, reflecting short-term market uncertainties.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic view on the upcoming earnings report, anticipating that strong earnings growth will provide funding for future investments and research, thereby enhancing the company's competitive position in the pharmaceutical industry.
See More
Biotech Dealmaking Accelerates Ahead of Patent Cliffs
- Surge in M&A Activity: Biotech M&A deal value reached $84 billion in Q1 2026, a staggering 89.4% increase from $44.4 billion a year earlier, indicating a robust market recovery, with projections suggesting total annual deal value could exceed $250 billion, ranking second only to 2019.
- Patent Cliffs Catalyst: Pharmaceutical companies are accelerating M&A due to impending patent cliffs, with over $300 billion in revenue facing loss of exclusivity in the next five years, particularly with Merck's Keytruda losing exclusivity in 2028, adding to market uncertainty.
- Strong Cash Reserves Fuel Acquisitions: Eli Lilly, for instance, ended 2025 with over $7.27 billion in cash and equivalents, having spent over $35 billion on acquisitions in 2023, demonstrating that strong financial positions make M&A decisions more justifiable at the board level.
- Mid-Sized Deals Dominate: Recent CEO transitions at GSK and Novo Nordisk have led to more aggressive M&A strategies, with analysts noting that the global revenue exposed to patent expirations over the next seven years is 2.5 times higher than in the last 16 years, further driving the activity in mid-sized deals.
See More
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- Apple's Earnings Beat: Apple exceeded analysts' expectations for both earnings and revenue in Q2, resulting in a stock price increase of over 3%, despite iPhone sales falling short, as phone revenue rose 22% from the same period in 2025, indicating strong market demand.
- Supply Chain Challenges: While overall revenue surpassed estimates, CEO Tim Cook warned that the global memory shortage will increasingly impact the business, highlighting the need for the company to remain agile in response to cost pressures.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following the strong earnings report, Apple's stock performed well at market open, reflecting investor confidence in the company's future growth potential, particularly against the backdrop of upcoming product launches.
- Industry Trend Impact: Apple's success also mirrors the recovery of the broader tech sector, with both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indices reaching all-time highs, showcasing strong demand for tech stocks and investor optimism.
See More
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- Market Rally: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reached record highs yesterday, marking their largest monthly gains since 2020, reflecting increased investor confidence in the economic outlook despite geopolitical tensions.
- Apple's Earnings Beat: Apple exceeded analysts' expectations for second-quarter earnings and revenue, with overall revenue rising 22% from the same period in 2025, despite iPhone sales falling short, indicating strong market demand.
- Surging Energy Prices: California's average gas price topped $6 per gallon for the first time since 2023, marking a 30% increase since the onset of the Iran war, which could significantly pressure consumers and impact spending.
- Booming Functional Snacks: Demand for Hershey's gum and mint products is surging as GLP-1 drug users seek
See More
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- Target Price Increase: Leerink Partners has raised the target price for Eli Lilly's stock to $1,119 from $1,058.
- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects a positive outlook on Eli Lilly's performance and potential growth in the market.
See More
