Epstein Files Trigger Political Crisis Across Europe
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 11 hours ago
0mins
Source: Benzinga
- Political Turmoil Intensifies: The release of the Epstein files has led to career collapses in London, Oslo, and Paris, with UK royal Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor arrested for misconduct, highlighting the close ties between political elites and scandal, which may further erode public trust in government.
- Significant Market Reaction: The political turmoil has impacted the UK debt market, with the gap between two-year and ten-year gilt yields widening to 86 basis points, the largest since 2018, indicating heightened investor concerns over future borrowing costs that could lead to increased government financing expenses.
- Weak Economic Growth: The Eurozone posted only 1.3% year-on-year growth in Q4, with industrial production falling 1.4% month-on-month, and amid pressures from immigration issues, this could strengthen support for right-leaning parties, further affecting political stability.
- Declining Public Trust: Surveys indicate over 70% of the public disapprove of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and the ongoing political crisis may lead to a further decline in his approval ratings, with markets pricing a 68% chance of his departure by June.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy BCS?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on BCS
About BCS
Barclays PLC is a diversified bank with five divisions comprising Barclays UK, Barclays UK Corporate Bank, Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management, Barclays Investment Bank and Barclays US Consumer Bank. The Barclays UK division represents businesses that sit within the United Kingdom ring-fenced bank, Barclays Bank UK PLC and its subsidiaries, and comprises Personal Banking, UK Business Banking and Barclaycard Consumer UK. The Barclays UK Corporate Bank division offers lending, trade and working capital, liquidity, payments, and FX solutions for corporate clients. Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management division comprises the Private Bank, Wealth Management, and Investments businesses. Barclays Investment Bank division incorporates the Global Markets, Investment Banking, and International Corporate Banking businesses. Barclays US Consumer Bank division represents the United States credit card business, focused on the partnership market, as well as an online deposit franchise.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Epstein Files Trigger Political Crisis Across Europe
- Political Turmoil Intensifies: The release of the Epstein files has led to career collapses in London, Oslo, and Paris, with UK royal Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor arrested for misconduct, highlighting the close ties between political elites and scandal, which may further erode public trust in government.
- Significant Market Reaction: The political turmoil has impacted the UK debt market, with the gap between two-year and ten-year gilt yields widening to 86 basis points, the largest since 2018, indicating heightened investor concerns over future borrowing costs that could lead to increased government financing expenses.
- Weak Economic Growth: The Eurozone posted only 1.3% year-on-year growth in Q4, with industrial production falling 1.4% month-on-month, and amid pressures from immigration issues, this could strengthen support for right-leaning parties, further affecting political stability.
- Declining Public Trust: Surveys indicate over 70% of the public disapprove of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and the ongoing political crisis may lead to a further decline in his approval ratings, with markets pricing a 68% chance of his departure by June.
See More
2026 S&P 500 Outlook and Risk Analysis
- Economic Slowdown: The U.S. added only 181,000 jobs in 2025, a sharp decline from 1.2 million in 2024, indicating weak economic growth that may put additional downward pressure on the S&P 500.
- Optimistic Market Expectations: Despite the economic slowdown, Wall Street analysts predict a roughly 10% increase in the S&P 500 for 2026, primarily driven by economic growth supported by tax cuts and artificial intelligence spending.
- Significant Valuation Risks: The S&P 500 currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22, well above the 10-year average of 18.8, having only maintained such high valuations during the dot-com bubble and the pandemic, suggesting potential bear market risks ahead.
- Midterm Election Impact: Historical data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged only a 4.6% return in midterm election years, with an average intra-year drawdown of 17%, increasing uncertainty for the market in 2026.
See More
European Banks Warn of Risks from UK Capital Requirement Loosening
- Systemic Risk Warning: Major European banks have warned that the UK's proposal to loosen capital requirements for electronic trading firms like Jane Street and Citadel Securities could heighten the risk of a systemic crisis, as their failures are perceived to not impact depositors, thus considered lower risk.
- Industry Opposition: The Association for Financial Markets in Europe argues that a blanket reduction in capital requirements fails to reflect the systemic risks posed by large investment firms, emphasizing that market risk standards should be calibrated to a firm's activities and systemic footprint rather than its legal form or the presence of retail deposits.
- Policy Advocacy: UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is urging financial regulators to implement policies that foster growth, indicating government support for financial market reforms that could influence future regulatory directions.
- Regulatory Options Discussion: The Financial Conduct Authority is considering seven options, including replacing the current European approach with a net capital rule similar to that used in the U.S., which may streamline requirements for firms that prefer to utilize their internal risk models, reflecting a focus on market adaptability.
See More
Barclays Declares Annual Dividend of 5.6p per Share
- Annual Dividend Announcement: Barclays has declared an annual dividend of 5.6p per ordinary share, payable on March 31, with a record date of February 20 and an ex-dividend date also on February 20, reflecting the company's commitment to consistent shareholder returns.
- Share Buyback Plan: The board has confirmed its intention to initiate a share buyback of up to £1 billion after the balance sheet date, expected to commence in the first quarter of 2026, aimed at enhancing earnings per share and increasing shareholder value.
- Interim Dividend Payment: An interim dividend of 3.0p per ordinary share or 12.0p per ADS was paid on September 16, 2025, demonstrating the company's robust performance in profitability and cash flow management.
- Future Outlook: Barclays topped fourth-quarter estimates and is on track to meet its 2026 targets while unveiling ambitious payout and return targets for 2028, indicating the company's competitive position and growth potential in the market.
See More
Barclays Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations with Strong Financial Targets
- Earnings Performance: Barclays reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of £0.09, beating expectations by £0.02, which reflects the company's strong market performance and boosts investor confidence.
- Stable Revenue Growth: The group income reached £7.08 billion, a 1.7% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations by £130 million, indicating the company's resilience and sustained market demand amid economic fluctuations.
- Capital Return Plan: Barclays plans to return at least £10 billion of capital to shareholders between 2024 and 2026, primarily through share buybacks and dividends, demonstrating the company's confidence in future growth and commitment to shareholders.
- Long-term Financial Goals: By 2028, Barclays aims for a group RoTE exceeding 14% and plans to return over £15 billion of capital between 2026 and 2028, highlighting the company's focus on sustained investment and growth opportunities.
See More
Barclays and NatWest Expected to Bid for Evelyn Partners
- Bidding Activity: Barclays and NatWest are expected to formally submit bids for wealth management firm Evelyn Partners on Thursday, indicating strong interest in the wealth management sector.
- Bid Scale: Both banks are offering over £2 billion for a firm that manages approximately £65 billion in assets, which would significantly enhance their market position if successful.
- Potential Competitors: Although the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) is speculated to be linked to the auction, it remains unclear whether they will submit a bid, adding uncertainty to the competitive landscape.
- Shareholder Background: Evelyn Partners is owned by private equity firms Permira and Warburg Pincus, and this acquisition could impact their future strategic direction and investment decisions.
See More
Epstein Files Trigger Political Crisis Across Europe
- Political Turmoil Intensifies: The release of the Epstein files has led to career collapses in London, Oslo, and Paris, with UK royal Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor arrested for misconduct, highlighting the close ties between political elites and scandal, which may further erode public trust in government.
- Significant Market Reaction: The political turmoil has impacted the UK debt market, with the gap between two-year and ten-year gilt yields widening to 86 basis points, the largest since 2018, indicating heightened investor concerns over future borrowing costs that could lead to increased government financing expenses.
- Weak Economic Growth: The Eurozone posted only 1.3% year-on-year growth in Q4, with industrial production falling 1.4% month-on-month, and amid pressures from immigration issues, this could strengthen support for right-leaning parties, further affecting political stability.
- Declining Public Trust: Surveys indicate over 70% of the public disapprove of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and the ongoing political crisis may lead to a further decline in his approval ratings, with markets pricing a 68% chance of his departure by June.
See More
2026 S&P 500 Outlook and Risk Analysis
- Economic Slowdown: The U.S. added only 181,000 jobs in 2025, a sharp decline from 1.2 million in 2024, indicating weak economic growth that may put additional downward pressure on the S&P 500.
- Optimistic Market Expectations: Despite the economic slowdown, Wall Street analysts predict a roughly 10% increase in the S&P 500 for 2026, primarily driven by economic growth supported by tax cuts and artificial intelligence spending.
- Significant Valuation Risks: The S&P 500 currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22, well above the 10-year average of 18.8, having only maintained such high valuations during the dot-com bubble and the pandemic, suggesting potential bear market risks ahead.
- Midterm Election Impact: Historical data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged only a 4.6% return in midterm election years, with an average intra-year drawdown of 17%, increasing uncertainty for the market in 2026.
See More
European Banks Warn of Risks from UK Capital Requirement Loosening
- Systemic Risk Warning: Major European banks have warned that the UK's proposal to loosen capital requirements for electronic trading firms like Jane Street and Citadel Securities could heighten the risk of a systemic crisis, as their failures are perceived to not impact depositors, thus considered lower risk.
- Industry Opposition: The Association for Financial Markets in Europe argues that a blanket reduction in capital requirements fails to reflect the systemic risks posed by large investment firms, emphasizing that market risk standards should be calibrated to a firm's activities and systemic footprint rather than its legal form or the presence of retail deposits.
- Policy Advocacy: UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is urging financial regulators to implement policies that foster growth, indicating government support for financial market reforms that could influence future regulatory directions.
- Regulatory Options Discussion: The Financial Conduct Authority is considering seven options, including replacing the current European approach with a net capital rule similar to that used in the U.S., which may streamline requirements for firms that prefer to utilize their internal risk models, reflecting a focus on market adaptability.
See More
Barclays Declares Annual Dividend of 5.6p per Share
- Annual Dividend Announcement: Barclays has declared an annual dividend of 5.6p per ordinary share, payable on March 31, with a record date of February 20 and an ex-dividend date also on February 20, reflecting the company's commitment to consistent shareholder returns.
- Share Buyback Plan: The board has confirmed its intention to initiate a share buyback of up to £1 billion after the balance sheet date, expected to commence in the first quarter of 2026, aimed at enhancing earnings per share and increasing shareholder value.
- Interim Dividend Payment: An interim dividend of 3.0p per ordinary share or 12.0p per ADS was paid on September 16, 2025, demonstrating the company's robust performance in profitability and cash flow management.
- Future Outlook: Barclays topped fourth-quarter estimates and is on track to meet its 2026 targets while unveiling ambitious payout and return targets for 2028, indicating the company's competitive position and growth potential in the market.
See More
Barclays Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations with Strong Financial Targets
- Earnings Performance: Barclays reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of £0.09, beating expectations by £0.02, which reflects the company's strong market performance and boosts investor confidence.
- Stable Revenue Growth: The group income reached £7.08 billion, a 1.7% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations by £130 million, indicating the company's resilience and sustained market demand amid economic fluctuations.
- Capital Return Plan: Barclays plans to return at least £10 billion of capital to shareholders between 2024 and 2026, primarily through share buybacks and dividends, demonstrating the company's confidence in future growth and commitment to shareholders.
- Long-term Financial Goals: By 2028, Barclays aims for a group RoTE exceeding 14% and plans to return over £15 billion of capital between 2026 and 2028, highlighting the company's focus on sustained investment and growth opportunities.
See More
Barclays and NatWest Expected to Bid for Evelyn Partners
- Bidding Activity: Barclays and NatWest are expected to formally submit bids for wealth management firm Evelyn Partners on Thursday, indicating strong interest in the wealth management sector.
- Bid Scale: Both banks are offering over £2 billion for a firm that manages approximately £65 billion in assets, which would significantly enhance their market position if successful.
- Potential Competitors: Although the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) is speculated to be linked to the auction, it remains unclear whether they will submit a bid, adding uncertainty to the competitive landscape.
- Shareholder Background: Evelyn Partners is owned by private equity firms Permira and Warburg Pincus, and this acquisition could impact their future strategic direction and investment decisions.
See More
