Energy ETF Surges 32.07% Driven by Iran War
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 02 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- ETF Performance: The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF has surged 32.07% due to the war in Iran, making it the best-performing among the 10 Sector SPDR ETFs, showcasing its resilience amid geopolitical events and attracting significant investor interest.
- Key Holdings Gains: ExxonMobil and Chevron, which together account for over 39% of the ETF, have risen 28.49% and 26.3% year-to-date, respectively, enhancing the ETF's overall performance and reflecting the market dominance of these large oil companies.
- Comparison with Other ETFs: The Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF boasts 101 holdings compared to the SPDR ETF's 22, and while their short-term performances are similar, the Fidelity ETF's inclusion of more smaller stocks has yielded a 43.9% return over three years, outperforming the SPDR ETF by over 400 basis points.
- Production Growth Potential: The SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF has increased by 40.73% year-to-date, with expectations that the war in Iran will catalyze increased oil and gas output in the U.S., further enhancing the ETF's investment appeal, especially if crude prices remain elevated.
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Analyst Views on CVX
Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 180.400
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
Current: 180.400
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
About CVX
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company. The Company produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and industry. The Company’s segments include Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with LNG; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels, and transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
US and Iran Reach Peace Agreement to End War
- Oil Price Plunge: Following the peace agreement between the US and Iran, Brent crude futures fell 5.6% and WTI dropped 5.9% on Monday morning, indicating that the market anticipates a rebalancing of supply and demand, which could lead to declining future profits.
- Oil Stocks Reaction: Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) saw its stock drop 3.1%, while Conoco's decline was only about half of Brent's drop, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the oil sector's outlook amidst fluctuating prices.
- Unclear Peace Agreement Details: Although President Trump announced the peace deal and Iran confirmed an immediate ceasefire, the specifics remain ambiguous, such as the handling of Iran's uranium stockpiles and potential US reparations, leaving the market uncertain about the conflict's true resolution.
- Investor Caution: With concerns over the anticipated resumption of oil supply, investors are selling off shares, and despite Chevron not being included in analysts' top stock picks, its price volatility may still significantly influence overall market sentiment.
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- Price Volatility: Exxon's shares have dropped nearly 17% in Q2, closely tracking oil price fluctuations since the onset of the Iran war on February 28, highlighting market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Valuation Advantage: With a trailing P/E ratio of 23.8, significantly lower than Chevron's 31.3, Exxon presents an attractive valuation that may draw increased investor interest.
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- Crude Oil Price Plunge: WTI crude oil prices fell over 4% to a three-month low due to the US-Iran peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflation expectations and boosting risk appetite in the equity markets.
- Weak Economic Data: The US June Empire Manufacturing Survey index dropped to 5.7, below the expected 13.7, indicating weakness in manufacturing that could pressure stocks, yet simultaneously supported gains in Treasury bonds.
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- Dow Jones Milestone: The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.4% just before 1 p.m. ET, reaching a new all-time intraday high, indicating strong market sentiment ahead of the anticipated signing of the ceasefire agreement.
- Tech Stocks Lead: Major tech companies like Alphabet, Nvidia, and Micron Technology collectively added over $300 billion in market capitalization, showcasing the robust performance of the tech sector in the current market climate.
- Oil Price Decline Impact: Oil prices fell sharply, with West Texas Intermediate crude dropping to around $80 per barrel, potentially easing inflationary pressures and reducing the likelihood of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, thereby boosting investor confidence in riskier assets.
See More
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- Strong Market Performance: The S&P 500 rose by 1.67% and the Nasdaq 100 by 2.79%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new record high, reflecting optimistic market sentiment driven primarily by gains in technology stocks.
- Crude Oil Price Plunge: WTI crude oil prices fell over 5% to a three-month low due to the US-Iran peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflation expectations and providing support for equity markets.
- Weak Economic Data: The US June Empire Manufacturing Index dropped to 5.7, below the expected 13.7, while May manufacturing production remained unchanged, and the June NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell to 35, indicating fragility in the economic recovery that could impact future market confidence.
- Tech Stocks Lead Gains: Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks surged, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF up over 4% and Western Digital soaring more than 14%, demonstrating strong market confidence in the tech sector, particularly amid rising risk appetite.
See More
US and Iran Reach Peace Agreement to End War
- Oil Price Plunge: Following the peace agreement between the US and Iran, Brent crude futures fell 5.6% and WTI dropped 5.9% on Monday morning, indicating that the market anticipates a rebalancing of supply and demand, which could lead to declining future profits.
- Oil Stocks Reaction: Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) saw its stock drop 3.1%, while Conoco's decline was only about half of Brent's drop, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the oil sector's outlook amidst fluctuating prices.
- Unclear Peace Agreement Details: Although President Trump announced the peace deal and Iran confirmed an immediate ceasefire, the specifics remain ambiguous, such as the handling of Iran's uranium stockpiles and potential US reparations, leaving the market uncertain about the conflict's true resolution.
- Investor Caution: With concerns over the anticipated resumption of oil supply, investors are selling off shares, and despite Chevron not being included in analysts' top stock picks, its price volatility may still significantly influence overall market sentiment.
See More
Bank of America Upgrades Exxon Mobil to Buy Amid Discounted Shares
- Investment Opportunity: Bank of America upgraded Exxon Mobil from neutral to buy, setting a $154 price target that implies a 9% upside from Monday's close, indicating a favorable entry point for investors.
- Price Volatility: Exxon's shares have dropped nearly 17% in Q2, closely tracking oil price fluctuations since the onset of the Iran war on February 28, highlighting market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Valuation Advantage: With a trailing P/E ratio of 23.8, significantly lower than Chevron's 31.3, Exxon presents an attractive valuation that may draw increased investor interest.
- Market Divergence: Among the 27 analysts covering Exxon, 13 have buy or strong buy ratings, while another 13 maintain hold ratings, indicating a split sentiment regarding Exxon's future performance.
See More
Dow Industrials Hits New Record High Amid Market Movements
- Housing Market Trends: Toll Brothers has risen about 18% in the past month, despite a decline of 11% from February's peak, indicating volatility in the market and shifts in investor confidence.
- SpaceX Stock Performance: On its second day of trading, SpaceX gained nearly 20%, closing at $192.50 with a market cap of $2.5 trillion, reflecting strong market expectations for its future growth.
- Energy Market Review: West Texas Intermediate crude futures have dipped below $80, up over 20% since late February, yet the energy sector has declined 7.3% in the past month, highlighting market uncertainties.
- Market Indices New Highs: The Dow Industrials and NYSE Composite both hit new highs, rising nearly 11% and 7.3% over the past three months, respectively, showcasing robust overall market performance.
See More
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- Strong Market Performance: The S&P 500 rose by 1.65%, the Nasdaq 100 surged by 3.06%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new record high, reflecting investor optimism about market prospects, particularly driven by gains in technology stocks.
- Crude Oil Price Plunge: WTI crude oil prices fell over 4% to a three-month low due to the US-Iran peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflation expectations and boosting risk appetite in the equity markets.
- Weak Economic Data: The US June Empire Manufacturing Survey index dropped to 5.7, below the expected 13.7, indicating weakness in manufacturing that could pressure stocks, yet simultaneously supported gains in Treasury bonds.
- Tech Stocks Lead Gains: Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks performed strongly, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF rising over 5% and Western Digital up more than 15%, demonstrating strong market confidence in the technology sector.
See More
Wall Street Rallies on Preliminary US-Iran Peace Agreement
- Market Surge: Wall Street experienced a significant rally with the S&P 500 rising 1.9% and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 3%, reflecting investor optimism driven by the preliminary peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
- Dow Jones Milestone: The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.4% just before 1 p.m. ET, reaching a new all-time intraday high, indicating strong market sentiment ahead of the anticipated signing of the ceasefire agreement.
- Tech Stocks Lead: Major tech companies like Alphabet, Nvidia, and Micron Technology collectively added over $300 billion in market capitalization, showcasing the robust performance of the tech sector in the current market climate.
- Oil Price Decline Impact: Oil prices fell sharply, with West Texas Intermediate crude dropping to around $80 per barrel, potentially easing inflationary pressures and reducing the likelihood of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, thereby boosting investor confidence in riskier assets.
See More
US Stocks Surge as Tech Leads Gains Amid Peace Deal
- Strong Market Performance: The S&P 500 rose by 1.67% and the Nasdaq 100 by 2.79%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new record high, reflecting optimistic market sentiment driven primarily by gains in technology stocks.
- Crude Oil Price Plunge: WTI crude oil prices fell over 5% to a three-month low due to the US-Iran peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflation expectations and providing support for equity markets.
- Weak Economic Data: The US June Empire Manufacturing Index dropped to 5.7, below the expected 13.7, while May manufacturing production remained unchanged, and the June NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell to 35, indicating fragility in the economic recovery that could impact future market confidence.
- Tech Stocks Lead Gains: Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks surged, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF up over 4% and Western Digital soaring more than 14%, demonstrating strong market confidence in the tech sector, particularly amid rising risk appetite.
See More
