Eli Lilly Strengthens Position in $150B Obesity Drug Competition Amid Novo and Pfizer Rivalry — Potential Benefits for ETFs

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

PFE+0.81%

IHE+0.55%

ABBV+0.91%

Source: Benzinga

Updated: Oct 30 2025

0mins

Source: Benzinga

Healthcare ETFs Capitalizing on Obesity Drug Boom: Healthcare ETFs are benefiting from the $150 billion obesity-drug market, with major players like Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Pfizer competing for market share, leading to increased investor interest in diversified ETFs.
Eli Lilly's Strong Performance: Eli Lilly's stock rose nearly 5% following impressive third-quarter earnings, prompting a raised profit forecast, while its significant presence in major healthcare ETFs like XLV and IHE highlights its dominance in the sector.
Novo Nordisk's Strategic Moves: Novo Nordisk is making headlines with a $6.5 billion counterbid for biotech Metsera, which is developing innovative weight-loss treatments, intensifying competition in the GLP-1 market against Pfizer's earlier bid.
Emergence of Themed ETFs: The Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss ETF offers a focused investment opportunity in companies leading the anti-obesity trend, reflecting the growing interest in specialized funds within the pharmaceutical landscape.

PFE

$26.1+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on PFE

Wall Street analysts forecast PFE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PFE is 28.56 USD with a low forecast of 24.00 USD and a high forecast of 35.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

16 Analyst Rating

5 Buy

11 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 25.890

Low

24.00

Averages

28.56

High

35.00

Current: 25.890

Low

24.00

Averages

28.56

High

35.00

UBS

Neutral

initiated

$25

2026-01-06

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$25

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

initiated

Neutral

Reason

UBS assumed coverage of Pfizer with a Neutral rating and $25 price target. The firm noted a backdrop of continued revenue uncertainty with $15B-$20B in revenues from key drugs losing patient exclusivity over the coming roughly three years. Though the firm is positive on the recent MTSR obesity deal, Pfizer needs to do more to offset 2028 LOE risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

BofA

Jason Gerberry

Neutral

downgrade

$28 -> $27

2025-12-16

Reason

BofA

Jason Gerberry

Price Target

$28 -> $27

2025-12-16

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

BofA analyst Jason Gerberry lowered the firm's price target on Pfizer to $27 from $28 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after the company "notably called out" faster COVID-19 product erosion relative to prior guidance as part of its 2026 outlook call. The firm, which "modestly" reduced its 2026 Pfizer sales and EPS estimates and its FY27 EPS estimate following the guidance call, looks to planned obesity data updates from the Metsera acquisition to better understand the company's potential obesity differentiation.

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BofA

Jason Gerberry

Neutral

downgrade

$29 -> $28

2025-12-15

Reason

BofA

Jason Gerberry

Price Target

$29 -> $28

2025-12-15

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

BofA analyst Jason Gerberry lowered the firm's price target on Pfizer to $28 from $29 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm, which struggles to see a rerating catalyst as the company works through its multi-year loss of exclusivity period, is shifting its valuation basis to its FY27 EPS estimate.

Morgan Stanley

Equal Weight

downgrade

$32 -> $28

2025-12-12

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$32 -> $28

2025-12-12

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Pfizer to $28 from $32 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm expects many of the policy overhangs that dominated the biopharma conversation this year to wane in 2026, bringing the focus back to fundamentals, the analyst tells investors in a 2026 outlook note for the group.

About PFE

Pfizer Inc. is a research-based, global biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, marketing, sale and distribution of biopharmaceutical products worldwide. Its Biopharma segment includes the Pfizer U.S. Commercial Division, and the Pfizer International Commercial Division. Its product categories include oncology, primary care and specialty care. Its oncology products include Ibrance, Xtandi, Padcev, Adcetris, Inlyta, Lorbrena, Bosulif, Tukysa, Braftovi, Mektovi, Orgovyx, Elrexfio, Tivdak and Talzenna. Its primary care products include Eliquis, Nurtec ODT/Vydura, Zavzpret, the Prevnar family, Comirnaty, Abrysvo, FSME/IMMUN-TicoVac, Nimenrix, Trumenba, and Paxlovid. Its specialty care products include Xeljanz, Enbrel (outside the United States and Canada), Inflectra, Abrilada, Cibinqo, Litfulo, Eucrisa, Velsipity, the Vyndaqel family, Genotropin, BeneFIX, Xyntha, Somavert, Ngenla, Hympavzi, Sulperazon, Zavicefta, Octagam and others.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.