D-Wave Quantum Responds to Claims of Quantum Supremacy Being Overturned
Welcome to the latest edition of "Quantum Leap" where The Fly decodes news and activity in the quantum computing space.CLAIM REBUTTAL:D-Wave Quantumissued a response to recent claims that newly published classical simulation work has "overturned" D-Wave's demonstration of quantum computational supremacy in quantum simulation. "The claim that D-Wave's achievement has been overturned is inaccurate and not supported by the scientific record," the company said in a statement. It added, "D-Wave welcomes advances in classical algorithms, including recent tensor-network work from researchers at the Flatiron Institute and collaborators. Scientific progress in quantum computing depends on rigorous comparison between quantum and classical methods. However, the recently published work does not reproduce the full scope of D-Wave's peer-reviewed Science result, nor does it solve the hardest problem instances and measurements reported in that work. The only major change in the Flatiron work that has now been published in Science is the addition of large diamond lattice data. This supports the claim that they are using BP-TNS to extract a Kibble-Zurek exponent in a 3D system, but the same criticisms apply as a year ago: they don't compute the same observables, nor all the geometries, nor the largest size geometries, nor all the couplings computed by D-Wave and its collaborators."DOW FUNDING:D-Wave Quantum has been awarded second year funding for the materials for superconducting qubits with scalable fabrication project by the Northeast Regional Defense Technology Hub. Awarded to D-Wave subsidiary Quantum Circuits, the SQFab project is one of four programs selected by the U.S. Department of War through Nordtech, a regional consortium of non-profit accessible semiconductor R&D facilities, government labs, defense companies, academic institutions, and technology manufacturing organizations in and around New York State.GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT:The Trump administration awarded approximately $2B in grants to nine quantum-computing companies, according to the Department of Commerce, or DoC. The government will receive a minority equity stake in each company.Quantinuum, backed by Honeywell, announced a letter of intent, or LOI, with the U.S. Department of Commerce's CHIPS Research and Development Office. The letter of intent proposes that Quantinuum would receive federal funding to enable the development of large-scale, fault-tolerant trapped-ion quantum computers that are of national strategic importance. "Quantum computing has the potential to unlock new possibilities across science, industry, and national priorities for decades to come. This collaboration with the Department of Commerce is designed to help Quantinuum's path to large-scale, fault-tolerant trapped-ion systems while strengthening the U.S. innovation and manufacturing ecosystem," said Rajeeb Hazra, president and CEO of Quantinuum. "The letter of intent supports Quantinuum's plan to partner with the CHIPS R&D Office and onshore suppliers GlobalFoundries, for critical semiconductor components, and Monarch Quantum, for integrated photonics, to further optimize key engineering pathways for components within Quantinuum's future commercial roadmap," the company stated.Xanadu QuantumCEO Christian Weedbrook said on LinkedIn, "Great announcement for the whole of the quantum computing industry today with the US government investment! Xanadu is also excited to be in final negotiations with Canada's federal and provincial governments for up to $390M! More coming soon."Rigetti Computingannounced that it has signed an LOI with the DoC for an award of up to $100M in funding over three years to accelerate superconducting quantum computing R&D. The funding is allocated under the CHIPS Research and Development Office Broad Agency Announcement pursuant to the CHIPS Act to grow U.S. leadership in emerging technologies, including quantum computing. The LOI contemplates that the Department will receive an equity stake in Rigetti consistent with the total amount of the funding. Under the LOI, Rigetti would pursue R&D projects that address major technical challenges in scaling and advancing superconducting quantum computing.IBMand the DoC announced a letter of intent to build an American quantum chip foundry. The CHIPS incentive from the DoC will support the research and development efforts of a new IBM company: Anderon, which will be America's first pure-play quantum foundry. In addition to the $1B in CHIPS incentives provided by the DoC, IBM will contribute $1B of cash into Anderon, along with IBM investing significant intellectual property, assets, and a skilled workforce, with additional investors expected as Anderon grows. Headquartered in Albany, New York as a standalone company, Anderon will operate as a 300-millimeter quantum wafer foundry. Anderon will first support wafer fabrication for superconducting qubit and supporting electronics wafers, with the goal to expand into other quantum modalities.D-Wave Quantum signed a LOI for $100M of proposed funding under the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act. In connection with executing final award documents, D-Wave would issue $100M in shares of its common stock to the U.S. Department of Commerce. This funding would accelerate development and scaling of D-Wave's annealing and gate-model quantum systems, including at its forthcoming R&D facility in Boca Raton, Florida as well as its R&D centers in New Haven, Connecticut and Burnaby, BC, Canada. The funded initiatives would help D-Wave expedite the delivery of advanced superconducting quantum computers, including a 100,000-qubit annealing system and a 10,000-qubit gate-model system.Infleqtionannounced it signed a LOI with the DoC's CHIPS Research and Development Office for $100M in proposed funding contingent on achievement of certain development milestones to accelerate U.S. based quantum computing technologies. The investment will accelerate Infleqtion's development of neutral-atom quantum systems as the United States expands domestic computing capabilities critical to economic competitiveness and national security.GlobalFoundrieslaunched Quantum Technology Solutions, a new quantum business to scale the manufacturing capabilities to achieve utility-scale quantum computing. The effort is anchored by quantum companies already engaged with the company's manufacturing and by the DoC. The DoC and GlobalFoundries have entered into a letter of intent to award the company $375M to accelerate the build-out of Quantum Technology Solutions. In a separate agreement, the Department of Commerce will receive a strategic equity investment in GlobalFoundries, representing approximately 1% ownership.REINVESTING:Sealsqannounced a further strategic investment in EeroQ. Building on the companies' ongoing technology cooperation project, Sealsq has entered into a new investment agreement with EeroQ and has agreed to serve as lead investor in EeroQ's upcoming financing round. This new commitment follows two strategic investments Sealsq made in EeroQ in December 2025 and in February.ANALYST COMMENTARY:B. Riley said that while IonQwas left off the Department of Commerce's letters of intent with nine quantum companies totaling $2.013B, IonQ has a "robust" $3.3B of cash funding and a "very high level of commercial and government engagement," the analyst told investors in a research note. The company's recent Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Heterogeneous Architectures for Quantum contract and SkyWater foundry acquisition in progress suggest its federal engagement strategy may favor defense and intelligence channels over CHIPS Act funding, contends Riley. The firm views it as a "distinction, not a slight."Wedbush reiterated an Outperform rating and $225 price target on IBM after the U.S. Department of Commerce announced plans to invest in U.S. quantum computing companies to speed up innovation, including a quantum chip foundry in partnership with IBM. While the timelines for developing quantum computing capabilities remain a long-term focus for IBM and have not changed, the firm believes the U.S. government's funding of quantum computing initiatives will act as a new catalyst to the industry with IBM at the helm. The company will make steady progress across its initiatives while the U.S. administration provides a more stable pathway to advance quantum computing developments, the analyst told investors in a research note.
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- Stock Surge: D-Wave Quantum's stock rose 12.54% to $26.30 after Mizuho raised its price target from $29 to $35, reflecting market confidence in the company's long-term logical qubit roadmap.
- Volume Spike: Trading volume reached 44.7 million shares, about 34% above the three-month average, indicating a significant increase in investor interest and potentially foreshadowing future market movements.
- Market Potential: D-Wave estimates its target addressable market could reach between $450 billion and $850 billion by 2040, highlighting its substantial growth potential in the quantum computing sector and attracting investor attention.
- Long-Term Investment Risks: Despite the optimistic outlook, the company is unlikely to generate meaningful profits until the 2030s, requiring investors to be prepared for the high-risk, high-reward nature of this investment.
- Superconducting Qubit Technology: IBM and Rigetti Computing are developing superconducting qubit technology; while IBM is exploring novel error-correction methods, both face challenges in delivering viable systems, potentially impacting their market competitiveness.
- Trapped-Ion Qubit Advantages: IonQ and Quantinuum utilize trapped-ion technology, with IonQ achieving 99.99% 2-qubit gate fidelity, showcasing superior accuracy, but their slower speeds compared to superconducting qubits limit their application range.
- Neutral Atom Qubit Potential: Infleqtion has achieved 99.73% 2-qubit gate fidelity using neutral atom qubit technology; although still slow, its high density characteristics may enhance quantum computing efficiency in the future.
- Hybrid Quantum Annealing and Superconducting: D-Wave Quantum is pursuing a hybrid approach by acquiring Quantum Circuits, aiming to combine the speed of superconducting qubits with the accuracy of trapped-ion technology, although verified metrics are still pending.
- IonQ's Strong Performance: IonQ reported Q1 revenue of $64.7 million, a staggering 755% increase year-over-year, and raised its full-year guidance to between $260 million and $270 million, showcasing its robust business foundation despite a 21% drop in stock price due to market sentiment.
- D-Wave's Quantum Growth: D-Wave's Q1 revenue was modest at $2.9 million, yet its closed bookings soared to $33.4 million, up 1,994% year-over-year, indicating strong demand for its quantum computing services, even as its stock has declined approximately 23% year-to-date.
- Rigetti's Market Challenges: Rigetti Computing posted Q1 2026 revenue of $4.4 million, and while it holds over $569 million in cash and has a deal to sell a 108-qubit system, its market valuation does not reflect commercial progress, with a 19% drop in stock price year-to-date.
- Sector Revaluation Phenomenon: The IPO filing of Quantinuum at a $12.7 billion valuation has prompted a reevaluation of the quantum computing sector, indicating that while the underlying technology remains intact, investors must be cautious in selecting stocks to avoid chasing overvalued companies.
- Rigetti's Revenue Struggles: Rigetti Computing reported Q1 2026 revenue of $4.4 million, and despite having over $569 million in cash, its thin revenue base raises doubts about its valuation, indicating challenges in its commercialization journey.
- IonQ's Strong Performance: IonQ achieved $64.7 million in revenue for Q1, a 755% year-over-year increase, and raised its full-year guidance to $260-$270 million, solidifying its leadership in quantum computing, yet its stock price fell 21%, reflecting market caution about its execution capabilities.
- D-Wave's Significant Booking Growth: D-Wave Quantum's Q1 revenue was $2.9 million, but its closed bookings soared to $33.4 million, up 1994% year-over-year, including a $20 million system sale to Florida Atlantic University, suggesting the market may be underestimating its commercial momentum.
- Market Valuation Reset: While the underlying quantum technology remains intact, the market's recalibration of valuations necessitates careful assessment of each stock's potential, especially in the current economic climate where not every company in the sector merits renewed attention.
- IonQ's Strong Performance: IonQ reported Q1 revenue of $64.7 million, a 755% year-over-year increase, and raised its full-year guidance to between $260 million and $270 million, showcasing a robust business foundation despite a 21% drop in stock price due to market sentiment.
- D-Wave's Business Growth: D-Wave generated $2.9 million in Q1 revenue but secured $33.4 million in bookings, reflecting a staggering 1,994% year-over-year growth, including a $20 million system sale to Florida Atlantic University, indicating strong market demand.
- Rigetti's Challenges: Rigetti Computing posted $4.4 million in revenue for Q1 2026, and despite having over $569 million in cash reserves, its thin commercial revenue base raises valuation concerns, leading to a 19% decline in stock price year-to-date.
- Market Recalibration: The quantum computing sector is undergoing a valuation recalibration, as evidenced by Quantinuum's IPO filing at a $12.7 billion valuation, reminding investors that while the underlying technology remains intact, expectations for future performance have significantly adjusted, necessitating careful stock selection.
- IPO Impact on Quantum Sector: Quantinuum's successful IPO raised $1.68 billion with a valuation exceeding $15 billion, significantly boosting market confidence in quantum computing and forcing competitors to reassess their business models.
- IonQ's Strong Performance: IonQ reported a 755% year-over-year revenue increase to $64.7 million in Q1, exceeding guidance by 30%, and raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $260 million and $270 million, showcasing its competitive edge in the quantum computing market.
- D-Wave's Surge in Orders: Despite a staggering 81% drop in Q1 revenue to $2.9 million, D-Wave's bookings skyrocketed 1994% year-over-year to $33.4 million, indicating a rapid growth in enterprise demand that could translate into significant future revenue.
- Rigetti's Market Pressure: Rigetti's Q1 revenue stood at $4.4 million, and while it boasts $569 million in cash with no debt, it faces intense competitive pressure from Quantinuum, necessitating a faster commercialization process to maintain its market position.









