CoreCivic (CXW) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
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Should l Buy CXW?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
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Analyst Views on CXW
Wall Street analysts forecast CXW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CXW is 30.00 USD with a low forecast of 28.00 USD and a high forecast of 32.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 18.500
Low
28.00
Averages
30.00
High
32.00
Current: 18.500
Low
28.00
Averages
30.00
High
32.00
About CXW
CoreCivic, Inc. is a diversified, government-solutions company. The Company provides a range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. Its CoreCivic Safety segment consists of correctional and detention facilities that are owned or controlled via a long-term lease and managed by the Company, as well as those correctional and detention facilities owned by third parties but managed by the Company. The segment also provides transportation services. CoreCivic Community segment consists of residential reentry centers that are owned or controlled via a long-term lease and managed by the Company. The segment also includes electronic monitoring and case management services. CoreCivic Properties segment consists of correctional real estate properties owned by the Company.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Corecivic Q4 Earnings Announcement Scheduled
- Earnings Release Date: Corecivic (CXW) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 11th after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.21, reflecting a 31.2% year-over-year increase, indicating ongoing improvement in profitability.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $585.12 million, representing a 22.1% year-over-year growth, which underscores Corecivic's strong performance amid rising market demand and may further bolster investor confidence.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Corecivic has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 100% of the time, demonstrating the company's stability and reliability in financial performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates saw no upward revisions but three downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced four upward revisions with none downward, reflecting optimistic market expectations for the company's future growth.
See More
CoreCivic (CXW) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
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Shares of Immigration Enforcement Firms Under Pressure Amid Policy Criticism
- Increased Stock Volatility: Shares of companies involved in U.S. immigration enforcement, such as Geo Group and CoreCivic, have experienced significant volatility in recent weeks due to intensified criticism of White House deportation policies, raising investor concerns about future revenue stability.
- Uncertain Government Funding: Congressional Democrats have threatened to block a Department of Homeland Security funding measure unless immigration enforcement policies are revised, creating a standoff that could lead to a partial government shutdown, injecting uncertainty into revenue streams that were previously considered stable.
- High Dependence on ICE Revenue: Geo Group has indicated that nearly half of its 2025 revenue is derived from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), while CoreCivic reported $244.7 million in fourth-quarter revenue from ICE, accounting for 40.5% of its total revenue, highlighting the companies' heavy reliance on government policies.
- Potential Long-Term Improvement: Despite short-term pressures, analysts suggest that substantial funds from last summer's tax and spending legislation could support contractors, and policy changes may create new demand, particularly benefiting Axon Enterprise, which could see increased business from the DHS's requirement for agents to wear body cameras.
See More
Corecivic Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Corecivic reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.27, exceeding expectations by $0.06, indicating strong profitability in the current market environment.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company posted revenues of $604 million, a 26.0% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $18.88 million, reflecting robust business expansion and demand.
- 2026 Financial Guidance: Corecivic projects net income for 2026 to be between $147.5 million and $157.5 million, with diluted EPS expected to range from $1.49 to $1.59, showcasing confidence in future growth.
- EBITDA Outlook: The company anticipates EBITDA for 2026 to be between $437 million and $445 million, indicating ongoing improvements in operational efficiency and profitability, which may attract more investor interest.
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GEO Group Declines by 9.4%, CoreCivic Decreases by 7.1%
Geographic Group Performance: The geographic group has experienced a decline of 9.4% in performance metrics.
Core Civic Decline: Core Civic has reported a decrease of 7.1% in its performance indicators.
See More
PRISON OPERATORS' STOCKS PLUMMET SIGNIFICANTLY
Prison Operators' Decline: The number of prison operators has sharply decreased, indicating significant changes in the correctional system.
Impact on Incarceration Rates: This decline may affect incarceration rates and the overall management of prison populations.
Policy Implications: The reduction in prison operators raises questions about the effectiveness of current policies and practices in the justice system.
Future of Corrections: The trend suggests a potential shift towards alternative forms of rehabilitation and community-based corrections.
See More
Corecivic Q4 Earnings Announcement Scheduled
- Earnings Release Date: Corecivic (CXW) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 11th after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.21, reflecting a 31.2% year-over-year increase, indicating ongoing improvement in profitability.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $585.12 million, representing a 22.1% year-over-year growth, which underscores Corecivic's strong performance amid rising market demand and may further bolster investor confidence.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Corecivic has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 100% of the time, demonstrating the company's stability and reliability in financial performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates saw no upward revisions but three downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced four upward revisions with none downward, reflecting optimistic market expectations for the company's future growth.
See More
CoreCivic (CXW) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Shares of Immigration Enforcement Firms Under Pressure Amid Policy Criticism
- Increased Stock Volatility: Shares of companies involved in U.S. immigration enforcement, such as Geo Group and CoreCivic, have experienced significant volatility in recent weeks due to intensified criticism of White House deportation policies, raising investor concerns about future revenue stability.
- Uncertain Government Funding: Congressional Democrats have threatened to block a Department of Homeland Security funding measure unless immigration enforcement policies are revised, creating a standoff that could lead to a partial government shutdown, injecting uncertainty into revenue streams that were previously considered stable.
- High Dependence on ICE Revenue: Geo Group has indicated that nearly half of its 2025 revenue is derived from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), while CoreCivic reported $244.7 million in fourth-quarter revenue from ICE, accounting for 40.5% of its total revenue, highlighting the companies' heavy reliance on government policies.
- Potential Long-Term Improvement: Despite short-term pressures, analysts suggest that substantial funds from last summer's tax and spending legislation could support contractors, and policy changes may create new demand, particularly benefiting Axon Enterprise, which could see increased business from the DHS's requirement for agents to wear body cameras.
See More
Corecivic Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Corecivic reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.27, exceeding expectations by $0.06, indicating strong profitability in the current market environment.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company posted revenues of $604 million, a 26.0% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $18.88 million, reflecting robust business expansion and demand.
- 2026 Financial Guidance: Corecivic projects net income for 2026 to be between $147.5 million and $157.5 million, with diluted EPS expected to range from $1.49 to $1.59, showcasing confidence in future growth.
- EBITDA Outlook: The company anticipates EBITDA for 2026 to be between $437 million and $445 million, indicating ongoing improvements in operational efficiency and profitability, which may attract more investor interest.
See More
GEO Group Declines by 9.4%, CoreCivic Decreases by 7.1%
Geographic Group Performance: The geographic group has experienced a decline of 9.4% in performance metrics.
Core Civic Decline: Core Civic has reported a decrease of 7.1% in its performance indicators.
See More
PRISON OPERATORS' STOCKS PLUMMET SIGNIFICANTLY
Prison Operators' Decline: The number of prison operators has sharply decreased, indicating significant changes in the correctional system.
Impact on Incarceration Rates: This decline may affect incarceration rates and the overall management of prison populations.
Policy Implications: The reduction in prison operators raises questions about the effectiveness of current policies and practices in the justice system.
Future of Corrections: The trend suggests a potential shift towards alternative forms of rehabilitation and community-based corrections.
See More
